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UK Elections
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| Dervish |
UK Elections tomorrow, including Scottish Parliament. Possibly the first step in the splitting up of the UK.
There is a very strong possibility that the Scottish National Party ,which is led by the former chief economist of the Royal Bank of Scotland (one of the top 10 largest companies in the world), will be the largest party and their main aim is the removal of Scotland from the UK.
Not sure how much appetite there will be for debate on this but 30-40% of the British Government (Ministers I mean, including Tony Blair by the way) are Scottish so would be a fairly large change. 90% of Britain's oil comes from Scotland and even more of it's electricity so it could really have an effect.
Have a few article to cite if anyone is interested? |
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| Marc Summers |
Wow, seems interesting! I'd like to read a few of those articles, if you don't mind.
How do you feel, seeing that you are Scottish? |
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| Dervish |
I tried to find one which places it in a wider context (as it is quite narrow).
| quote: | Europe's Nationalists Watch Scottish Elections With Interest
Despite a recent drop in support, Scottish independence is still a hot election issue
Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Despite a recent drop in support, Scottish independence is still a hot election issue
Scotland's elections are being watched by secessionist groups around Europe hoping to get a glimpse of their own autonomous futures. Success for the Scottish Nationalist Party could be a real step towards independence.
May 3, 2007 has been awarded the title "Super Thursday" in the United Kingdom as voters in England, Scotland and Wales go to the polls in a series of national and local elections.
While it is widely expected that the voting in local elections in England will be used to give outgoing Prime Minister Tony Blair and his Labour party a bloody nose, and with the campaign for the Welsh assembly unlikely to cause too many surprises, most of the interest will focus on Scotland.
Outside of Scotland, the vote to choose councilors for all the country's 32 local authorities will barely make any impact but the potential shockwaves from the election for the Scottish Parliament could reverberate around Europe.
The manifestos of the eight contesting parties naturally focus on domestic Scottish issues but the biggest topic -- that of Scottish independence -- has wider implications for the United Kingdom and beyond.
Out of the eight contesting parties, only the Scottish National Party (SNP), the Scottish Socialist Party (SSP) and the Solidarity party have made the election promise of a referendum on Scottish independence should they get elected to the Holyrood parliament.
According to recent polls, Scotland is on the cusp of a potentially historic shift in power. The most telling survey results point to an end to the Labour Party’s 50-year dominance of Scottish politics with forecasts showing the SNP set to win 50 of the 129 parliamentary seats, seven more than Labour, as dissatisfied Labour supporters turn to the most palatable alternative.
End of 300-year marriage
Will the Union by cast asunder by Scottish nationalists?Bildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: Will the Union by cast asunder by Scottish nationalists?
However, while an SNP success would be a huge step towards ending the marriage between England and Scotland which was set up 300 years ago, it would not necessarily lead to the creation of an independent Scotland.
Proportional representation makes it nearly impossible to win an outright majority in the Scottish Parliament. So even if the SNP emerges with the most votes, it will be hard to find coalition partners favoring an independence referendum. The three mainstream parties -- Labour, the Conservative Party and the Liberal Democrats -- have all left the independence issue out of their manifestos.
In addition, public opinion has recently ebbed on the topic. A survey late last year showed that a slight majority was in favor. Now, only about 27 per cent of Scottish voters want to dissolve the union.
The SNP promises to give the people the chance to vote on independence after three years of national governance, meaning that if it is successful in Thursday’s parliamentary elections, the SNP would put the question to the country in 2010.
An expanded EU role for Scotland
SNP leader Alex Salmond has a European visionBildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: SNP leader Alex Salmond has a European vision
Ahead of such a referendum, the SNP would have to address the concerns of those who reject the idea of independence. It is likely that it would do so by offsetting the fears over a loss of financial and political support from England with a vision of an expanded role -- and increased prosperity -- within the European Union.
Scotland, as a part of the United Kingdom, is already a member of the European Union and the SNP believes that this would continue to be the case if independence from the rest of the UK was achieved. However, Atsuko Ichijo, an expert on Scottish nationalism at Kingston University, London, believes that the situation could be much more complicated than that.
"The SNP's position is that, because Scotland is part of the EU already as a constituent part of the UK, when Scotland becomes independent both Scotland and the rest of the UK will inherit the UK membership and 'share' it between them," Ichijo told DW-WORLD.DE.
However, he added, the European Commission has raised questions about this assumption. There are a number of constitutional difficulties the EU would face if it allowed Scotland to "inherit" membership in the bloc under UK membership.
"The fact of the matter is, there is no precedent in which a member state has split into smaller units with each demanding to continue EU membership," he said. "I do not think there is any definitive answer to the question of what form independent Scottish membership of the EU would take."
EU states concerned over Scottish plans
The Basques would welcome Scottish independenceBildunterschrift: Großansicht des Bildes mit der Bildunterschrift: The Basques would welcome Scottish independence
Should Scotland become independent and join the EU as a separate state from the rest of the UK, it could encourage other independence movements campaigning for autonomy within Europe. It could also anger countries like Spain who play unwilling hosts to strong independence movements and who would fear the precedent a breakaway Scotland would set, such as the Catalans and Basques in Spain, the Flemish in Belgium and the people of northern Cyprus.
"They would welcome the Scottish precedent because that would make it easier for them to do the same. Also it would have an impact on the debate on 'reconfigured sovereignty' or 'post-national sovereignty', which would most likely be exploited by other independence/autonomist movements across Europe and beyond," he said.
In addition to increasing the pressure on countries with strong independence movements, a Scottish succession could also provide a headache for the European Union itself if it led to a sudden increase in entities achieving autonomy within the bloc.
"It would certainly cause a lot of practical problems for the EU, especially in the areas of membership votes and the distribution of votes at the European Council and European Parliament," said Ichijo. "At a more abstract level, there would inevitably have to be a complete rethink about the whole constitutional nature of the EU."
Nick Amies |
>German News LINK< |
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| Dj O'Callaghan |
Who you voting for? My mate who's Scottish lives down here but his Dads up in Dundee along with some of other his relatives think the SNP will lead Scotland to ruin, yet the other members of his family are very proud and see it as a positive thing.
In all honesty, I don't think Scotland do too bad at the present moment in time. I hear the education system along with your hospitals are brilliant.
I don't mind with UK Elections so long as Labour and the Lib Dems, lose their seats in Northampton. They've made it a ter place to live then it was, they're corrupt, we officially have the worst council in the UK, one of the highest crime rates yet they cut jobs at the police force, overcrowded class rooms and high teenage pregancy rates. |
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| Dervish |
| quote: | Originally posted by Dj O'Callaghan
Who you voting for? My mate who's Scottish lives down here but his Dads up in Dundee along with some of other his relatives think the SNP will lead Scotland to ruin, yet the other members of his family are very proud and see it as a positive thing.
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Well I really think they won't lead us to ruin (voted SNP). I mean Salmon isn't some mug as I said before he was the Chief Economist of one of the biggest companies in the world (Royal Bank of Scotland - put Apple and Sony together and they are still smaller, it makes more in the US alone than McDonalds does in the whole world and is bigger than Coke!).
Contrast that with the Labour leader who is a former teacher (not problem with that my dad is one too). Who is going to know whats best for the economy?
Anyway in the end SNP won, should be an interesting time for Scottish politics.
Results:
Party Const Regn +/- Tot
SNP 21 26 +20 47
LAB 37 9 -4 46
CON 4 13 -1 17
LD 11 5 -1 16
Others 0 3 -14 3 |
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| Dervish |
News just in the Lib Dems have turned down a coalition with the SNP effectively killing any chance of a referendum on independence.
And probably condemning the parliament to four years of inertia. |
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| George Smiley |
| I'm against breaking up the Union. Not for any nationalistic notion, but I just think that if Wales, Scotland and England were seperate, collecting seperate taxes etc, one or two would have less than they do now (probably not England as London is now apparantly the business capital of the world). Obviously the independence would be great for passing laws (the laws allowed to be passed in Scotland for eg have impressed me a lot) but I'm not sure how sustainable they would be in the long term if there is a reduction in revenue... |
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| Dervish |
I get what your pushing at (Scotland is a sink for cash). Firstly given the oil money (that old chestnut... not as important as it is sometimes played but really is an issue, and will continue to be) and the huge banking industry (I mean RBS pays £11 Billion in tax alone, don't have data for Bank of Scotland but it's in the 20 companies in the world too so should be quite alot too) which would be piling tax straight into the economy and the other energy opportunities present (wind, wave so on). Scotland would be able to support itself I think.
I mean because we can't set our own tax level below the rest of the UK (because we'd get an advantage...) it ties us up. As an independent nation we could. And would be better off for it.
The ramifications of not becoming independent are more scary than independence.
Have a read of the article below (from the Adam Smith Institute):
| quote: |
Independent Scotland: A Road to Riches
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If an independent Scotland chose to follow the Republic of Ireland’s low-tax route, as SNP leader Alex Salmond has indicated it would, Scotland’s growth rate might be expected, over a five-year period, to move closer to Ireland’s trend growth rate of 7 percent. Given a further five years of Scottish growth at that trend level, and before diminishing returns set in, Scotland’s growth over the ten-year period would put its index 71.5 higher, more than a two-thirds increase in GDP.
By contrast, says Stein, the rest of the UK would be expected to have grown rather less, by just over a quarter. The result would be dramatic for Scotland. Measured in household income per head, Scotland, which started £1,700 behind the rest of the UK, could be expected to be £6,000 ahead of it at the end of that period.
We believe that the new research study shows just what can be achieved if countries choose to follow the low tax route to prosperity, a route which took the Republic of Ireland from the poorest country in the EU (per head) to the richest. Scotland, it says, could match that performance. |
>Independent Scotland: The Road to Riches<
I know there is a big 'might' assumption in there but economists aren't in the business of making unlikely assumptions.
I mean fundamentally look at what flags we use. How many people do you know who when asked what nationality they are say "British"? |
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| George Smiley |
Well me for a start!
But thats beside the point, most people do probably identify with their country of origin rather than their state (unless your a British nationalist etc)
Like I said, I can understand wanting independence and by the looks of it Scotland could do very well on it's own, but lowering taxes to attract investment might bring up issues in the future. Also, a large portion of Britains revenue is spent on defence. Would Scotland create a seperate military or would they rely on the British army in military matters? It would be quite unfair on the British/English if Scotland created a military along the lines of Ireland if they wanted to spend the extra revenue on social benefits etc.
So possibly Scotland leaving the Union would have a negative effect on the English? |
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