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Moore's Law
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| Sunsnail |
How long do you think this can possibly continue? Do you think that if Moore had never made this observation, that developments in computer technology wouldn't have been as progressive?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moore%27s_Law
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| stren |
| its all about RAM and graphics card now |
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| Omega_M |
| quote: | | Recent computer industry technology "roadmaps" predict (as of 2001) that Moore's Law will continue for several chip generations |
| quote: | | In early 2006, IBM researchers announced that they had developed a technique to print circuitry only 29.9 nm wide using deep-ultraviolet (DUV, 193-nanometer) optical lithography. IBM claims that this technique may allow chipmakers to use current methods for seven years while continuing to achieve results predicted by Moore's Law. |
And interestingly,
| quote: | | Kurzweil projects that a continuation of Moore's Law until 2019 will result in transistor features just a few atoms in width. |
Further...
| quote: | Although Moore's Law was initially made in the form of an observation and forecast, the more widely it became accepted, the more it served as a goal for an entire industry. This drove both marketing and engineering departments of semiconductor manufacturers to focus enormous energy aiming for the specified increase in processing power that it was presumed one or more of their competitors would soon actually attain. In this regard, it can be viewed as a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The implications of Moore's Law for computer component suppliers are very significant. A typical major design project (such as an all-new CPU or hard drive) takes between two and five years to reach production-ready status. In consequence, component manufacturers face enormous timescale pressures—just a few weeks of delay in a major project can spell the difference between great success and massive losses, even bankruptcy. Expressed as "a doubling every 18 months", Moore's Law suggests the phenomenal progress of technology in recent years. Expressed on a shorter timescale, however, Moore's Law equates to an average performance improvement in the industry as a whole of close to 1% per week. For a manufacturer competing in the competitive CPU market, a new product that is expected to take three years to develop and is just three or four months late is 10 to 15% slower, bulkier, or lower in storage capacity than the directly competing products, and is usually unsellable. (If instead we accept that performance doubles every 24 months, rather than every 18 months, a 3 to 4 month delay would mean 8 to 11% less performance.) |
To an extent, the law does affect the chip development technology. But technology is hardly dependant on empirical observations such as these. It is driven by market needs. The "law" itself was formulated based on observation of the trends in chip development technology at that time (1965). |
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| Sunsnail |
| Kurzweil is great. His books are long and too informative. |
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| tubularbills |
funny, it's more like Murphy's Law: anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
just like yur harddrive failing :D |
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| Project-K |
| That graph makes me feel old. |
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| gehzumteufel |
| quote: | Originally posted by Project-K
That graph makes me feel old. |
+1. i remember having a 286. i remember using an 8086 and the old ass Macs that were b&w, all 1 unit, and ran off of a disk |
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| Abercrombie |
My laptop
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by tubularbills
funny, it's more like Murphy's Law: anything that can go wrong, will go wrong.
just like yur harddrive failing :D |
Moore's Law + Murphy's Law = Terminator: Rise of the Machines |
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| Fundamental |
| quote: | Originally posted by Sunsnail
Kurzweil is great. |
Yeah, Kurzweil is great. When that man says something, I can't help but to listen. :D
To be honest it's surprising that Moore's Law has stood such a test of time, and that it's still something relevant that we refer to today. Respect to the bloke Moore! Lucky guess I say though. You never hear of Bob Smith's Law that states that computers would get exponentially bigger and require the power of human brains to perform calculations. |
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| Omega_M |
| who is Kurzweil, i may ask ? |
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