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Al-Qaeda in Iraq reported crippled
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| LatinLover |
The U.S. military believes it has dealt devastating and perhaps irreversible blows to al-Qaeda in Iraq in recent months, leading some generals to advocate a declaration of victory over the group, which the Bush administration has long described as the most lethal U.S. adversary in Iraq.
But as the White House and its military commanders plan the next phase of the war, other officials have cautioned against taking what they see as a premature step that could create strategic and political difficulties for the United States. Such a declaration could fuel criticism that the Iraq conflict has become a civil war in which U.S. combat forces should not be involved. At the same time, the intelligence community, and some in the military itself, worry about underestimating an enemy that has shown great resilience in the past.
"I think it would be premature at this point," a senior intelligence official said of a victory declaration over AQI, as the group is known. Despite recent U.S. gains, he said, AQI retains "the ability for surprise and for catastrophic attacks." Earlier periods of optimism, such as immediately following the June 2006 death of AQI founder Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in a U.S. air raid, not only proved unfounded but were followed by expanded operations by the militant organization.
There is widespread agreement that AQI has suffered major blows over the past three months. Among the indicators cited is a sharp drop in suicide bombings, the group's signature attack, from more than 60 in January to around 30 a month since July. Captures and interrogations of AQI leaders over the summer had what a senior military intelligence official called a "cascade effect," leading to other killings and captures. The flow of foreign fighters through Syria into Iraq has also diminished, although officials are unsure of the reason and are concerned that the broader al-Qaeda network may be diverting new recruits to Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The deployment of more U.S. and Iraqi forces into AQI strongholds in Anbar province and the Baghdad area, as well as the recruitment of Sunni tribal fighters to combat AQI operatives in those locations, has helped to deprive the militants of a secure base of operations, U.S. military officials said. They are less and less coordinated, more and more fragmented," Lt. Gen. Raymond T. Odierno, the second-ranking U.S. commander in Iraq, said recently. Describing frayed support structures and supply lines, Odierno estimated that the group's capabilities have been "degraded" by 60 to 70 percent since the beginning of the year.
Calls for restraint
Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, chief of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of the U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, refused to speak on the record about Iraq assessments and strategy.
Senior U.S. commanders on the ground, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. forces in Iraq, have long complained that the Central Command, along with the CIA, is too negative in its analyses. On this issue, however, Petraeus agrees with Fallon, the military intelligence official said.
For each assessment of progress against AQI, there is a cautionary note that comes from long and often painful experience. Despite the increased killings and captures of AQI members, Odierno said, "it only takes three people" to construct and detonate a suicide car bomb that can "kill thousands." The goal, he said, is to make each attack less effective and lengthen the periods between them.
Right now, said another U.S. official who declined even to be identified by the agency he works for, the data are "insufficient and difficult to measure."
"AQI is definitely taking some hits," the official said. "There is definite progress and that is undeniable good news. But what we don't know is how long it will last . . . and whether it's sustainable. . . . They have withstood withering pressure for a long period of time." Three months, he said, is not long enough to consider a trend sustainable.
Views of the extent to which AQI has been vanquished also reflect differences over the extent to which it operates independently from Osama bin Laden's central al-Qaeda organization based in Pakistan. "Everyone has an opinion about how franchisement of al-Qaeda works," a senior White House official said. "Is it through central control or is it decentralized?" The answer to that question, the official said, affects "your ability to determine how successfully [AQI] has been defeated or neutralized. Is it 'game over'?"
In Baghdad, the White House official said, the group's "area of operations has been reduced quite a bit for a variety of reasons, some good and some bad." Three years of sectarian fighting have eliminated many mixed Sunni-Shiite neighborhoods. Those areas had been the most fertile and accessible places for AQI, which is composed of extremist Sunnis, to attack Shiite civilians, security forces and government officials. But the death of mixed neighborhoods also has made another Bush administration priority -- promoting political reconciliation -- more difficult. The expanded presence of U.S. troops in combat outposts in many parts of Baghdad has also put pressure on AQI, but a major test of gains against the organization will come when the U.S. military begins to turn security in those areas over to Iraqi forces next year.
Lying low?
Recent suicide bombings in northern Iraq have convinced some officials that AQI has moved its operations in that direction. But the officials said they do not know whether AQI militants have permanently decamped from Baghdad and Anbar or whether they are merely lying low in anticipation of a U.S. departure or the failure of Shiite Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to end the sectarian divisions that AQI fostered and now feeds upon.
While a victory declaration might have the "psychological aspect" of discouraging recruitment to a perceived lost cause, the White House official said, advantages overall would be minimal. "I recognize that there are pros to saying, 'Hey, listen, the bad guys are on the run.' " But if AQI were later able to demonstrate residual capabilities with a series of bombings, "even though it was temporary," he said, "the question becomes: 'How does this play out in terms of public opinion?' "
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| LatinLover |
| Its great to know our Arm Forces are making progress :) |
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| Trancer-X |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
Its great to know our Arm Forces are making progress :) |
But at the same time we're funding Jundullah in Iran :conf:
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| The Arbiter |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trancer-X
But at the same time we're funding Jundullah in Iran :conf:
link |
You gotta admit that no-one wages war like the USA. Even ifit is completely contraversial and we all know what the funding of militant groups results in... |
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| LatinLover |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trancer-X
But at the same time we're funding Jundullah in Iran :conf:
link |
Ok Iran is allowed to aid terrorist groups in Iraq, but when the US gives Iran a taste of their own medicine it is not acceptable :rolleyes:
This is a clear sign that the US has sent to Iran, you want to create instability in Iraq so will create instability in your own country |
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| Trancer-X |
| quote: | Originally posted by The Arbiter
You gotta admit that no-one wages war like the USA. Even ifit is completely contraversial and we all know what the funding of militant groups results in... |
I can't say that I'm in any way proud of that fact. There was a time in my life when I would have been but that time is long gone.
I guess you could say that I've evolved somewhat as a human and I wish that other people would too. |
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| Trancer-X |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
Ok Iran is allowed to aid terrorist groups in Iraq, but when the US gives Iran a taste of their own medicine it is not acceptable :rolleyes:
This is a clear sign that the US has sent to Iran, you want to create instability in Iraq so will create instability in your own country |
I never said that nor did I ever (not even remotely) infer it.
What's not acceptable to me is the assumption that Al Qaeda is evil except when they're working for us. |
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| The Arbiter |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trancer-X
I never said that nor did I ever (not even remotely) infer it.
What's not acceptable to me is the assumption that Al Quaeda is evil except when they're working for us. |
Im inclined to agree. "Morals! when it suits us" |
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| DJ Shibby |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
Ok Iran is allowed to aid terrorist groups in Iraq, but when the US gives Iran a taste of their own medicine it is not acceptable :rolleyes:
This is a clear sign that the US has sent to Iran, you want to create instability in Iraq so will create instability in your own country |
haha
I swear, people like yourself will never take responsibility for anything, will you?
It's always someone else's fault, or if we're wrong, it's okay because someone else out there might be doing something just as morally bankrupt, riiight? |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
Its great to know our Arm Forces are making progress :) |
It's always nice to hear positive news, however it's also good to take it with a bucket of salt considering how easily the tide turns there.
When you have the top two heavyweight Generals for the war agreeing about a cautious tone, which it seems is quite rare that these two particular generals agree on something, I think it would behoove us to take them at their word rather than the cheery headlines purported by the WaPost:
| quote: | "Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, head of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said. But Adm. William J. Fallon, the chief of U.S. Central Command, which oversees Iraq and the rest of the Middle East, is urging restraint, the official said. The military intelligence official, like others interviewed for this report, spoke on the condition of anonymity about Iraq assessments and strategy.
"Senior U.S. commanders on the ground, including Gen. David H. Petraeus, the head of U.S. forces in Iraq, have long complained that Central Command, along with the CIA, is too negative in its analyses. On this issue, however, Petraeus agrees with Fallon, the military intelligence official said."
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Anyone else sick of these assessments by "anonymous" military officials? If they aren't allowed to leak this type of information, why leak it then especially if they would face some sort of disciplinary action? Or if the bosses of these anonymous officials are giving them the green light to leak out info., why do it anonymously? Doesn't really do this Administration and military higher ups much credit either way.
It's also worth noting as the story notes that the very likely possibility exists of al Qaeda merely shifting north or regrouping. The temporary success may also exist as a consequence to the ethnic cleansing of Sunnis in so many neighborhoods - hardly a worthy condition for a unified Iraq, don't you think?
Another reason for the cautious tone - this group at best makes up around 10% of the insurgency. It is also not the main focus of problems stemming from the insurgency, which has always been and remains to be the twofold monster of Sunni groups and Shiite factions/death squads.
And this was the same al Qaeda that didn't exist in Iraq until we invaded Iraq, right?
And the timing of such stories should never be too underestimated. On the same day this story was released, we have this in regards to the Blackwater private security company in hot water in Iraq:
| quote: | The Iraqi investigators issued five recommendations to the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, which has since sent them to the U.S. Embassy as demands for action. Point No. 2 in the report says:
“The Iraqi government should demand that the United States stops using the services of Blackwater in Iraq within six months and replace it with a new, more disciplined organization that would be answerable to Iraqi laws.”
Sami al-Askari, a top aide to al-Maliki, said that point in the Iraqi list of demands was nonnegotiable.
“I believe the government has been clear. There have been attacks on the lives of Iraqi citizens on the part of that company (Blackwater). It must be expelled. The government has given six months for its expulsion and it’s left to the U.S. Embassy to determine with Blackwater when to terminate the contract. The American administration must find another company,” he told AP. |
And the AP story suggests a possible cover-up by sweet Condi's State Dept.:
| quote: | Other witnesses said Blackwater helicopters arrived over the square during the shooting and opened fire.
One of them was 20-year-old Ahmed Abdul-Timan, who works as a guard at the tunnel that runs under the square. He told AP that the initial U.S. investigative team tried to intimidate him into changing his story about the helicopters firing. He said the interrogation lasted three hours.
"Four or five days after the incident," Abdul-Timan said, "there was a second investigation but the questioning was done by a U.S. Army major. It was much easier. They videotaped what I said, took my phone number and address. The major tried to comfort us, saying he and his men love the Iraqi people and want to help them."
Abdul-Timan's account squares with others that indicated the first investigation by State Department personnel appeared to be an attempt to vindicate the Blackwater guards. The U.S. military conducted the second investigation and was more sympathetic.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071015...I4mWRYgNsME1vAI |
So again, a broader perspective on this ordeal is essential. Plus it's a necessity to take a cautionary tone to any "VICTORY!!!!" phrases from Iraq, even when it's from that darn librul media like the WaPost. |
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| Krypton |
| Al-Qaeda is in Iraq specifically because of the occupation. Don't forget who opened this can of worms. The coalition forces may have been going after al-qaida for a while, but its the Iraqi's who are the ones who really drove out al-qiada out of the anbar province. |
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| MisterOpus1 |
Well now, this is interesting. Let's take a look at the big cheerleader reported in this story about al Qaeda being "crippled":
| quote: | | Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal, chief of the Joint Special Operations Command's operations in Iraq, is the chief promoter of a victory declaration and believes that AQI has been all but eliminated, the military intelligence official said |
Hmmm, McChrystal, eh? That wouldn't happen to be the same McChrystal that said this in 2003, would it?:
| quote: | “I would anticipate that the major combat engagements are over,” Maj. Gen. Stanley McChrystal told reporters at a Pentagon briefing. He said U.S. forces are moving into a phase of “smaller, albeit sharper fights.”
http://www.cnn.com/2003/US/04/14/sprj.irq.pentagon/
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Just two weeks after his statement, we get the wonderful "Mission Accomplished" banner on the U.S.S. Lincoln where Bush declared, "Major combat operations in Iraq have ended.":
http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/rele...0030501-15.html
As Faiz points out in his post:
| quote: | The Congressional Research Service recently warned U.S. commanders have increasingly “seemed to equate AQ-I with the insurgency, even though most of the daily attacks are carried out by Iraqi Sunni insurgents.” Gen. James Jones, the author of detailed report on Iraqi security forces, said that 98 percent of more of the fighting is an internal civil conflict among Iraqis. All of which suggests that the basis for this declaration of “mission accomplished” is just as misplaced as the last one.
http://thinkprogress.org/2007/10/15/mcchrystal/
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Gosh, who woulda believed this General would be cheerleading again, especially without the restraint of Petraeus and Fallon combined? |
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