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Do you think America is entering a Recession? (pg. 2)
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| SuspicionVandit |
| are Iran's women hot? |
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| MrJiveBoJingles |
| quote: | Originally posted by SuspicionVandit
are Iran's women hot? |
Not bad. |
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| SpecialedXL |
| if we want hot woman we should take over lebanon |
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| Dieselboy_1206 |
First of all, if we are entering a recession then it is because of the housing market slump, not the devaluation of the dollar.
The dollar has been over valued for a very long time, propped up by China and other countries buying our debt to prop up the dollar. The dollar should be worth less and I am all for it. The reason being that right now we aren't exporting nearly as much as we import because our higher valued dollar makes our exports more expensive compared to those from other countries. In order to increase our exports we have to have a currency that is worth less.
Look at Europe and tell me a high valued currency is a great thing. Europe is like us in importing because their currency is valued so high. Now look at China. Low valued currency = high exportation of goods. Their economy is consistently growing at 10%. They are purposely keeping it at a low value.
that being said, I don't want it to completely drop, but a slow re-valuation would be welcome.
The recession will come from the sub-prime mortgage and housing markets. And what I am seeing come is a second possible tech bubble out in the west.
And I don't think we are entering a recession. I have some confidence that our Fed will help level it off before a recession hits. Hence the lowering of the interest rate. |
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| inconspicuous |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
morons. |
I hate when we agree. |
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| Project-K |
| quote: | Originally posted by Spike
lets just say that when the canadian dollar is worth just as much or more than yours, then that aint a good thing |
That's happened before, you're probably just too young to remember. Besides alot of advantages come from this. It's good for exportations, and the tourism industry is booming. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by inconspicuous
I hate when we agree. |
yeah, it makes me feel dirty. |
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| LiquidNitrogen |
| quote: | Originally posted by Dieselboy_1206
First of all, if we are entering a recession then it is because of the housing market slump, not the devaluation of the dollar.
The dollar has been over valued for a very long time, propped up by China and other countries buying our debt to prop up the dollar. The dollar should be worth less and I am all for it. The reason being that right now we aren't exporting nearly as much as we import because our higher valued dollar makes our exports more expensive compared to those from other countries. In order to increase our exports we have to have a currency that is worth less.
Look at Europe and tell me a high valued currency is a great thing. Europe is like us in importing because their currency is valued so high. Now look at China. Low valued currency = high exportation of goods. Their economy is consistently growing at 10%. They are purposely keeping it at a low value.
that being said, I don't want it to completely drop, but a slow re-valuation would be welcome.
The recession will come from the sub-prime mortgage and housing markets. And what I am seeing come is a second possible tech bubble out in the west.
And I don't think we are entering a recession. I have some confidence that our Fed will help level it off before a recession hits. Hence the lowering of the interest rate. |
Without a World War III China can alone bring down US economy (worse than what WWW-III could bring to US) to it's knees JUST BY PUTTING THE TRILLION DOLLARS IN MARKET. Add to an already bad situation US has already lost a lot of dollars from your's and my tax money. Bush is no doubt the worst thing that has happened to US.
Read more at -> http://www.crunchweb.net/87billion/ |
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| Rook |
| they already are in recession.. |
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| Lilith |
| quote: | Originally posted by diggerz
According to the BBC both the IMF and the World Bank decided that business in the U.S is considered 'risky' or 'unwanted' at the moment.
On the other hand, many claim that the U.S still has one of the highest standards of living, maintaining an overall good economic performance.
What's your take on this? |
As a former market investor with a bit of a finger still on the pulse, while I don't pretend to speak for other investors, there is a general consensus and undercurrent of what essentially amounts to 'no confidence' in the US market.
Now all the internet silliness and misbehaving aside I get up too here, I'm actually a serious person when it comes to money, especially my money and most people treat it in the same regard. We aren't blind and deaf to what happens there, most have at least a feet on the ground experience of how the place works and a global perspective of what goes on there, both locally and in it's spheres of influence.
Locally we notice the lack of investor and consumer protection through what would be perceived there as 'muzzling economic growth through policy' which to some degree is true, but markets don't run on just investment, they're also very heavily dependant on the consumers. Without one, the other ceases to exist (at it's most extreme) and in the case of the US, this lack of protection for both has seen the first big downturn this year with the mortgage/securities debacle and also noticed that there hasn't been a lot put in place to prevent it happening again.
Banks can pump money in there to bolster the finance sector again in an effort to offset a few things, but essentially, if it where to happen again I doubt there's much to stop something similar happening again. I had picked up the wagging tail of sub primes early last year and figured it would pop eventually, it took awhile for it to brew up but eventually it did a few months ago and for the time being I was content to sit back and figure that might have been the worst of it over from at least that perspective. Sort of a mini-recession and dent in the market, maybe that would be it, but it appears the mistrust has run a bit deeper where both investors are keeping their hands on their wallets and consumers are falling back into saving mode.
It would also be unwise to assume that the investor is also an immoral person without a conscience, now at the end of the day you might think a dollar is a dollar but to be honest, if there's enough blood and crap on that dollar it begins to get too sullied to use. Also noted that in the US' latest expeditions to secure oil reserves that the nepotism of the current administration is also serving its own ends.
Now in a not exactly hypothetical situation where a group of friends is looking after only themselves with a big bag of goodies and not willing to share such lucrative contracts with external investors, keeping the best for themselves and it was made quite clear that 'if you're not with us you're against us' many years ago.
That applies on all levels, both in police actions and the the ability to invest according to what you've put into the effort of police actions.
You object, you get nothing, you contribute little, you get little.
The dollar goes elsewhere having been stonewalled by internal financing within the country which is dictating to whom wishes to participate, quite unsurprisingly as it's equivalent to doing things the very hard way. It's even less unwise to think that public opinion, the biggest, ignorant animal around, doesn't have a say in the matter because essentially the investor will not be supported by a consumer market which dislikes how things are done. Faced also with a continuing belligerent attitude towards how things should be done and their behaviour which dictates that policy must be followed completely apart from public opinion by politicians in democratic societies, the consumer is also quite capable aside from not voting for them, also quite capable of voting with their money elsewhere.
Business is not ignorant of public perception, it's like the line of credit which never runs out if you are a brand with a name that people associate with something good and a massive buffer against failure, either in product or public opinion of the business activities.
So essentially at the end of all this, not only is the political sector, but also the financial sector seen as being morally corrupt and you simply cannot do business with someone who is corrupt, turn around and drop you and your money in the crap when it finds it convenient to do so.
Because you do need the security in a deal, you need to trust the people you're dealing with and you need to know where you stand at the end of the day with them, knowing they will be doing what is in the best interests with your investments.
If they aren't.
You go elsewhere. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| lil spent too much time counting her money and not enough time learning to use paragraphs. |
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