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Bin Laden Admits Defeat in Iraq
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| LatinLover |
October 27, 2007: On October 22nd, Osama bin Laden admitted that al Qaeda had lost its war in Iraq. In an audiotape speech titled "Message to the people of Iraq," bin Laden complains of disunity and poor use of resources. He admits that al Qaeda made mistakes, and that all Sunni Arabs must unite to defeat the foreigners and Shia Moslems. What bin Laden is most upset about is the large number of Sunni Arab terrorists who have switched sides in Iraq. This has actually been going on for a while. Tribal leaders and warlords in the west (Anbar province) have been turning on terrorist groups, especially al Qaeda, for several years. While bin Laden appeals for unity, he shows only a superficial appreciation of what is actually going on in Iraq.
Bin Laden doesn't discuss how the Americans defeated him. It was done with data. Years of collecting data on the bad guys paid off. Month by month, the picture of the enemy became clearer. This was literally the case, with some of the intelligence software that created visual representations of what was known of the enemy, and how reliable it was. The picture was clear enough to maneuver key enemy factions into positions that make them easier to run down.
Saddam's henchmen, the main enemy, were no dummies. They were smart enough, and resourceful enough, to build a police state apparatus that kept Saddam in power for over three decades. However, for the last three years, that talent has been applied to keeping the henchmen alive and out of jail. But three years of fighting has reduced the original 100,000 or so core Saddam thugs, to a few thousand diehards. Three years ago, there were hundreds of thousands of allies and supporters from the Sunni minority (then, about five million people, now, less than half that), who wanted to be back in charge. Now the remaining Sunni Arabs just want to be left in peace. Thus the Sunni nationalists of in the Baghdad suburbs are shooting at, and turning in, their old allies from Saddams Baath party and secret police. This isn't easy for some of these guys, but it's seen as a matter of survival. While the fighting in and around Baghdad is officially about rooting out al Qaeda, and hard core terrorists, it's also about taking down the Baath party bankers and organizers who have been sustaining the bombers with cash, information and encouragement.
Bin Laden can't openly talk about any of this, because that would be admitting he had made a deal with the devil back in 2004, when al Qaeda and the Iraqi Sunni Arab terrorists united. The Baath party has always been secular. Not exactly anti-religion, but not something al Qaeda could openly embrace. Many of the Iraqi Sunni Arab terrorists are religious, but not religious enough for the al Qaeda hard core. And it's the hard liners that usually set the agenda. That's a fatal flaw with groups that depend on terrorism to keep the fight going. Cracking down on the hard core requires more clout and muscle than al Qaeda possesses these days. And that's another unspoken reason by bin Laden is singing the blues.
Bin Laden's latest audio recording brought forth a furious reaction from many of his followers. The main complaint was that only excerpts of the message were being reported on by the Arab media, and that if the entire message were put out there, the excerpts would not appear so damaging. The excerpts concentrated on bin Laden admitting mistakes, criticizing al Qaeda operations in Iraq and urging Islamic radicals to get their act together.
Al Qaeda is under a lot of pressure of late. In addition to defeat in Iraq, the organization is being battered in North Africa, South East Asia, Somalia, Afghanistan and Pakistan. Bin Laden has not got any good news to talk about, and that's what's really got his followers angry.
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| LatinLover |
| In the past few days Ive been assigned some research on analyzing intelligence as a part of my curriculum. I came across on one of the most respected strategist community online and found this article to be very interesting. Thought it was something worthy to analyze |
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| eROs.au |
| Ah finally. I'm glad we got rid of the al qaeda that wasn't there before we went in. |
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| hardcore trancer |
| lol lets just say that they did defeat them in Iraq for a minute here but do you really think that they ll stop fighting?they will go and fight in Afghanistan instead.you see terrorism isnt something you can defeat by killing and invading countries. |
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| LatinLover |
| quote: | Originally posted by eROs.au
Ah finally. I'm glad we got rid of the al qaeda that wasn't there before we went in. |
Do you truly think if we capture OBL Al Qaeda is going to magically disappear? :rolleyes: What we can assure you is that we have successfully interrupted Al Qaeda operations against our forces and we many of its cells are concentrated in Iraq. A defeat to Al Qaeda can shatter their image and their reputation in the region. Lets not forget that Al qaeda is not only popular for their ideology but also for their military operations in the past. After OBL launched successful campaigns against the soviets he was EXTREMELY popular he was viewed as a god and . After 9/11, that gave them a boost in recruitment. Because Al Qaeda demonstrated it was capable in standing up for world powers 1. Soviet Union and now 2. USA so they gained credibility and these military campaigns we can say it benefited their "marketing" around the world and call to others to join the cause that indeed they can fight world powers |
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| Omega_M |
The war on terror has been WON !!1!!1! :gsmile:
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| LatinLover |
| quote: | Originally posted by hardcore trancer
lol lets just say that they did defeat them in Iraq for a minute here but do you really think that they ll stop fighting?they will go and fight in Afghanistan instead.you see terrorism isnt something you can defeat by killing and invading countries. |
The struggle to defeat terrorism is something you cannot disappear from one day to another. Clearly one of the key issues to fight terrorism is that you must have countries that are committed to combat terrorism. I can go and on with this. Just to give you a peak on the research I was conducting is that has Al Qaeda made to many enemies in ME region? We have just recently heard of OBL threating Libya LINK
So the question is... Is Al Qaeda digging up its own grave by making enemies in the region and making them combat terrorism in general? Soon and hopefully you will have an Middle East united in combating these groups :) |
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| Krypton |
Al-Qaida is thoroughly in control of the pashtun tribes. No army has ever conquered that area since Alexander the Great...:rolleyes:
Mashariff also declared a state of emergency. Do you actually think Al-Qaeda needs Iraq? As of now, Pakistan is not run by its constitution, but by its military leader. Fazlullah's militants, I guarentee you are being bankrolled by al-qaida, and so are the taliban.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...ml?hpid=topnews
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http://www.iht.com/articles/2007/11...a/militants.php
Swat region, Pakistan's jewel, is newest front line
By Jane Perlez
Published: November 1, 2007
PESHAWAR, Pakistan: For much of the past century, the mountainous region of Swat was ruled as a princely kingdom where a benign autocrat, the Wali, bestowed schools for girls, health care for everyone and the chance to get a degree abroad for the talented.
Now the region, Pakistan's scenic jewel, is the newest front line between Islamic militants sympathetic to the Taliban and Al Qaeda and Pakistan's nervous security forces, whose fighting for the first time has moved beyond Pakistan's tribal fringe and into more settled areas of the country.
The battles are part of an expanding insurgency within Pakistan aimed directly at the government of General Pervez Musharraf, rather than at the NATO and American forces across the Afghan border.
Many here say it is fueled by anger over the government alliance with the Bush administration and what is seen as a pro-American agenda that has taken on greater prominence with the return of the opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, who accuses the militants of trying to take over the country.
So grave is the threat in the Swat region, too dangerous for foreign journalists to visit, that more than 2,000 Pakistani soldiers were dispatched to quell the fighters in July. For three months they remained mostly inactive, intimidated by the militants. Reinforcements sent last week were hit by a suicide bomber who killed 17 paramilitary soldiers.
On Thursday, government forces retaliated. Helicopters attacked about 500 militants at Khwazakhela, according to the home secretary for the North-West Frontier Province, Badshah Gul Wazir, killing at least 60 men. The militants said they had captured 44 men and were holding them hostage.
In many ways, Swat reflects in microcosm the reasons Pakistan has been transformed into such a dangerous place: The aggressiveness of the Islamic militants; the passivity of the Pakistani government and security forces; the starved civilian apparatus, including schools and hospitals, which could be the backbone of a counterinsurgency.
The intimidation takes many forms. Two days after the suicide attack, the heads of two members of the Frontier Constabulary were paraded through the dusty streets of Matta, a village over 30 kilometers, or about 20 miles, north of Saidu Sharif, the capital of Swat.
Grim messages accompanied the heads, calling the soldiers allies of the United States and threatening beheading for anyone else siding with the Americans, according to residents here who received news from relatives in the area.
Since the clashes began, schools have been closed, a vital polio vaccination campaign for children has been abandoned and police posts have been left empty, residents said. Lawlessness rules, by their accounts.
"The militants control about 10 percent of the territory" of the North-West Frontier Province, where Swat is situated, said Sher Mohammed, a lawyer who lives in the area and also here in Peshawar, where he was interviewed. "But psychologically they have terrorized the entire area. No one feels secure."
The atmosphere of fear and uncertainty pervades not only the larger North-West Frontier Province but also is taking hold in large cities, including the capital, Islamabad, and the nearby garrison city of Rawalpindi, where suicide attacks are now common compared to their frequency only a year ago.
Such attacks are increasingly deadly. The truck carrying Bhutto was hit by at least one suicide bomber during her arrival motorcade in Karachi two weeks ago, killing 140 of her supporters.
Bhutto left Pakistan on Thursday afternoon for her home in Dubai after lying low for most of the week behind a curtain of security provided by her political party at her family compound in Karachi.
"Pakistan is under siege," said Farook Adam Khan, a prominent lawyer who was educated at Sandhurst, the British military academy, and is a former anticorruption prosecutor appointed by Musharraf.
Khan warned that the militancy embodies the fury over the alliance between Musharraf and the Bush administration in the campaign against terror. "It's the anger at the pro-American policies, particularly the Musharraf-Bush axis."
A briefing earlier this year on law and order by the Home Department of the North-West Frontier Province, which is run by political allies of Musharraf, showed that the government was well aware of the mounting militancy.
The report, obtained by The New York Times, refers, in part, to "free movement of militants, their financial, physical and moral support growing in the presence of large number of law enforcement agents."
Another part of the report states in stark terms: "Morale of law enforcement agents and the people supportive of government on the decline. Talibanization, lawlessness and terrorism on the rise."
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Al-Qaida is thoroughly in control of the pashtun tribes. No army has ever conquered that area since Alexander the Great...:rolleyes:
Mashariff also declared a state of emergency. Do you actually think Al-Qaeda needs Iraq? As of now, Pakistan is not run by its constitution, but by its military leader. |
stay on topic. |
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| LatinLover |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Al-Qaida is thoroughly in control of the pashtun tribes. No army has ever conquered that area since Alexander the Great...:rolleyes:
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Look at the threads title, where the does it say Pakistan? Please dont mix two differently topics into one thread. For that create your own one ;) |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
stay on topic. |
Are you brain dead? Al-Qaida is the topic. Nice try though..:o
AQ may have lost ground in Iraq, but they are by no means weaker because of it. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by LatinLover
Look at the threads title, where the does it say Pakistan? Please dont mix two differently topics into one thread. For that create your own one ;) |
I looked at the thread title. My assertion is that AQ isn't any weaker because of Iraq. THEY ARE CHANGING FRONTS!!! Are you two too stupid to notice it??? |
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