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Arrived: Recession (pg. 17)
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| ninetyninej |
| quote: | Originally posted by R!CH
i wouldn't trust the unemployment rate as a measure of severity for anything in this country. that statistic has been abused and manipulated by politicians for decades to stay artificially low as possible and so the trending means almost nothing. most economists agree that if you double this figure today, you'd be closer to the actual unemployment rate. the government gets to define what "unemployment" is and redefining it has been a habit of many presidents. if you aren't "employed" or "unemployed" you are a "discouraged worker", "marginally attached worker", "part time for economic reasons" or "persons who completed temp jobs". now there's nothing wrong with having these alternative classifications, except that if you lost your full-time job and fall into one of these categories, you aren't part of the unemployment statistic!
only people who register with the unemployment office every 4 weeks or receive unemployment benefits are counted as unemployed. when you stop receiving unemployment checks or stop visiting the unemployment office for more than a month - regardless of your employment status - you are no longer considered unemployed or part of the labor force - you are a "discouraged worker". if you work part-time, as little as 1 hour a week, you are "part-time for economic reasons". if you found work below the poverty level, you are a "marginally attached worker". if you've worked as a substitute teacher once in the last month you are a "person who completed temp jobs". then there are people who have no address and aren't counted at all. all these people aren't considered part of the 6.5% unemployed and when you hear 6.5% the assumption is that 93.5% are employed.
it's not that the bureau of labor statistics keeps bad records, but the "official" figure cited by the media as the unemployment rate ignores a huge swath of citizens who want to work full-time, but can't find a full-time job. buried in footnote u-6 of table a-12 in the bls report's "alternative measure of labor underutilization" is a more accurate statistic. in august 2008 that number is 10.8% - it's more accurate than the official unemployment rate, but it still ignores those classified as "discouraged workers". it's interesting how none of the alternative measures in the bls takes a total count of the entire labor force, just different groupings of each type of classification.
another labor statistic that's deceptive is any job growth seen in the last 7-8 years. a trick used to hide the decline of the labor force is the creation of low-pay service jobs. when a state like tennessee loses 100k manufacturing jobs and creates 110k minimum wage service jobs that pay half the income, the white paper outlook is "job growth" when the truth is that people are becoming poorer. this isn't a hypothetical situation, it's been done. unless you compare wage and employment figures simultaneously, you would think the economy is on the rise when in fact the only thing on the rise today is poverty.
you can say the same for inflation, which is realistically somewhere between 7-10% today. |
I knew all that but was going to keep my post short and simple.
It's funny too because some right wingers blamed the 6.1% as "high" because the fact that EDD/UI was extending participants benefits up to 2 months due to the economy being ass ed. Citing the number "should be lower" when in reality the percentage is based on those claims that are currently receiving unemployment benefits. Like you said, once off the program, even if its just because your benefits expired and you haven't gotten a job, they drop you off the list.
The labor dept's data and unemployment info is about as accurate as the inflation figures the fed gives out -- or mike lord's secret charts and data showing the failing economy is propaganda and its just a "slowdown" :toothless |
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| ninetyninej |
| quote: | Originally posted by diskodave
I bet Wells Fargo comes in and buys WaMu to compete with BofA... but it will really come down to how nasty WaMu's books are... |
I was wondering when Wells was going to step up to the plate.
Be interesting if Wachovia, HSBC, or China buys it.
Wachovia is pretty likely, but they're books and balance sheet are horrendous from buying World Savings. Sooo many pick-a-pay's still haven't reset. |
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| djGT |
Fed provides additional $180 billion for short-term dollar auctions
| quote: | LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Overnight borrowing costs fell Thursday after the world's biggest central banks announced they would pump billions of dollars into the financial system to soothe distressed money markets.
In an unexpected announcement timed to coincide with the start of the European trading day, the Federal Reserve said it would use existing and new swap lines to provide major central banks with an additional $180 billion to be injected into money markets through overnight and other short-term loans.
Short-term borrowing costs leaped this week as interbank lending ground to a virtual halt due to growing financial-sector turmoil after investment bank Lehman Brothers failed.
"I think this is recognition that the time for subtlety is past," said Russell Jones, head of fixed-income and currency strategy research at RBC Capital Markets.
Analysts said the injection was bound to help untangle overnight funding woes. However, easing broader tensions in the money markets would take time amid worries about solvency and fears of further turmoil, they said.
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Did you like that rollercoaster ride? :wtf: |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by ninetyninej
I was wondering when Wells was going to step up to the plate.
Be interesting if Wachovia, HSBC, or China buys it.
Wachovia is pretty likely, but they're books and balance sheet are horrendous from buying World Savings. Sooo many pick-a-pay's still haven't reset. |
HSBC have faired pretty well in terms of the sub-prime crunch, and they really want to get in the US market bigtime.
Well, if Goldman and Meryl go down, we're screwed.... |
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| gehzumteufel |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
HSBC have faired pretty well in terms of the sub-prime crunch, and they really want to get in the US market bigtime.
Well, if Goldman and Meryl go down, we're screwed.... |
ML is down. Goldman is next, but they say they have enough liquidity to weather the storm...or so they were saying yesterday. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by gehzumteufel
ML is down. Goldman is next, but they say they have enough liquidity to weather the storm...or so they were saying yesterday. |
ML down? Seriously? Oh .
Goldman probably can weather it - Those guys are too powerful and wealthy to let it be swept away. |
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| gehzumteufel |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
ML down? Seriously? Oh .
Goldman probably can weather it - Those guys are too powerful and wealthy to let it be swept away. |
Yeah they went down last week dude.
Also, GS says they can weather the storm because they have other ventures and what not that are doing well, but as we have seen, don't trust what they are saying. |
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| djGT |
U.S. stocks rally on hopes for a fix from Fed
| quote: | After trading in a more than 600-point range featuring triple-digit swings on either side of zero, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 410.03 points higher to end at 11,019.69, with all 30 of its components rising and half a dozen scoring double-digit percentage gains, led by financials.
The volatile session ended on a high note as regulators hit back against short-sellers and lawmakers called for the U.S. government to create a new federal agency - similar to the Resolution Trust Corp. that gave relief to troubled savings and loans in the 1980s -- to solve the financial crisis.
"The drumbeat in favor of an RTC-style federal response is growing louder by the day. Add me to the list of supporters," said Kevin Giddis, managing director, Morgan Keegan & Co.
The Federal Reserve, acting in concert with its counterparts overseas, injected billions in liquidity before the trading day began in Europe, offering what proved to be only short-term relief for U.S. equities, which plunged and soared throughout the session. |
Not to fear, the RTC is back to save the day! :wtf:
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
Goldman probably can weather it - Those guys are too powerful and wealthy to let it be swept away. |
Don't forget how Bear Stearn, Lehman, Fannie/Freddie were too big to fail as well. :nervous: Check out the volatility today, 86 low and 120 high. :crazy: |
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| 72hrpartyanimal |
any advice on how to save home from foreclosing?
options that were brought up:
1. buy new house while credit is good and let the house foreclose
2. short sell to someone trustworthy
3. feds (yeah right)
have you heard of any possibilities of renegotiating the the loan in anyway?
*background: my close friend got loan with managable monthly payments for the first 5 years, where after, the payments double. i think another friend referred to it as a bubble loan or some . |
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| gehzumteufel |
| quote: | Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal
any advice on how to save home from foreclosing?
options that were brought up:
1. buy new house while credit is good and let the house foreclose
2. short sell to someone trustworthy
3. feds (yeah right)
have you heard of any possibilities of renegotiating the the loan in anyway?
*background: my close friend got loan with managable monthly payments for the first 5 years, where after, the payments double. i think another friend referred to it as a bubble loan or some . |
Balloon payment. owned.
Honestly, tell the friend to call the bank and try to get a rate adjustment or loan adjustment. If they aren't willing to do that, they have no choice but to allow the start of the process. There aren't that many options till you do. |
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| 72hrpartyanimal |
| quote: | Originally posted by gehzumteufel
Balloon payment. owned.
Honestly, tell the friend to call the bank and try to get a rate adjustment or loan adjustment. If they aren't willing to do that, they have no choice but to allow the start of the process. There aren't that many options till you do. |
when you say the "start of the process", do you mean foreclosure? |
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| gehzumteufel |
| quote: | Originally posted by 72hrpartyanimal
when you say the "start of the process", do you mean foreclosure? |
Yep. Sad but true. |
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