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Lebanon on brink of civil war?
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| George Smiley |
Hizballah is reported to have completely taken over West Beirut today in retaliation for the government shutting down Hizballah's telecommunications network, which in turn was done over accusations Hizballah had installed spy cameras in Beirut airport. It seems Hizballah and Amal have overrun Sunni neighbourhoods - strongholds of Hiriri - and even fired a rocket propelled grenade at his home!
Seems Lebanon has been heading this way for quite a while now with the political deadlock over there and the internal and external forces that are pulling the country in completely opposite directions.
It also seems that possibly this time the country won't be as fractured as in the previous civil war as there seems to be two groups - pro-Syria/anti-Western and anti-Syria/pro-Western - although Lebanon is liable to fall apart and the population splinter among the many ethno-religious divisions
Government attempts to shut down Hizballah telecommunications
Hizballah takes over west Beirut |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by ********
Dude if you didn't know half a city has been taken. It ain't a brink, it is the real thing. But it is lebanon so it is like a new quarter. |
No I think it would be the "real thing" if non-state factions on the anti-Syria side started fighting with Hizballah. What happened yesterday could be described more accurately as either terrorism or rebellion, albeit on a very low level. And so far it has only involved the army (ie the state)
| quote: | | You must understand there is Hezbollah, and there is Lebanon.. both have militant arms and have widespread support, they generally share land more or less, but since the south the UN came in Hez needs a place to call their own - and lebanon is easier to deal with than the UN. |
Not sure what point you're trying to make here? Lebanon has an army, not militants. Within Lebanon there are militant groups, of which Hizballah are one. Also, no, the UN in not more difficult to deal with than "Lebanon" (I assume you mean the national army) as the UN force is minimal and very restricted in what it can do (Hizballah would wipe the floor with the in a second)
| quote: | | What else are they going to do now that they can't attack Israel? Soccer? |
What's that supposed to mean?
| quote: | | What lebanon needs is a president, and I think the west will be a little upset with Nasrallah. |
Nasrallah can't be President - the President must be a Maronite Christian |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
the President must be a Maronite Christian |
that's interesting. A country that is increasingly becoming more muslim, it can only have a christian president. |
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| Krypton |
| How was Hezbollah spying on the airport? The media is so vague on so many things as to why they're being accused of trying to take over the airport or somethin? |
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| Q5echo |
| "Hezbollah is making it abundantly clear that its participation in Lebanese politics ends when Hezbollah is asked to submit to the state’s authority. How many more Middle East “experts” are going to proclaim that the answer to Islamic supremacism is dialogue and political integration?" |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
"Hezbollah is making it abundantly clear that its participation in Lebanese politics ends when Hezbollah is asked to submit to the state’s authority. How many more Middle East “experts” are going to proclaim that the answer to Islamic supremacism is dialogue and political integration?" |
yeah, hezbollah has refused to negotiate or participate in a vote the last 3 times the issue was raised. to be honest i dont think israel did anyone but hezbollah a favour by bombing the out of the country, this only weakened the state and placed more influence in hez & iran's hands.
i wonder if israel would help now that force is justified. someone's gotta teach these militias that if you dont work within the state you get your ass kicked instead. im sick and tired of militant islam's impatience with democracy and their inability to accept not getting their own way all the time. |
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| shaolin_Z |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
im sick and tired of militant islam's impatience with democracy and their inability to accept not getting their own way all the time. |
Sounds more like the US government. All psychos think alike I guess, except militants wouldn't be militant if they got their way... which is a little ironic. |
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| shaolin_Z |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
Hizballah is reported to have completely taken over West Beirut today in retaliation for the government shutting down Hizballah's telecommunications network, which in turn was done over accusations Hizballah had installed spy cameras in Beirut airport. It seems Hizballah and Amal have overrun Sunni neighbourhoods - strongholds of Hiriri - and even fired a rocket propelled grenade at his home!
Seems Lebanon has been heading this way for quite a while now with the political deadlock over there and the internal and external forces that are pulling the country in completely opposite directions.
It also seems that possibly this time the country won't be as fractured as in the previous civil war as there seems to be two groups - pro-Syria/anti-Western and anti-Syria/pro-Western - although Lebanon is liable to fall apart and the population splinter among the many ethno-religious divisions
Government attempts to shut down Hizballah telecommunications
Hizballah takes over west Beirut |
Well, that was a predictable consequence of Israel's recent insanity. I'm a bit curious about what makes you think it'll turn in to civil war. Just a simple power vacum? [a serious question btw] |
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| DJ Shibby |
Does anyone have any solid information on what the illegal communications network was that Hezbollah was operating? Or was it just a closed military phone system?
Anyone have insights into why this was a big deal to the Lebanese and basically led to this violent tension release? |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by ********
Well to say the least you are taking a very western view.
I'd like to clarify some things-
Members of any military are Militant -
see definition of word not slanted propaganda to attack not fascist totalitarian states attacking grass roots movements -
Militant means
# Fighting or warring.
# Having a combative character; aggressive, especially in the service of a cause |
Come on man! You're just back tracking and it's obvious!
When people use the term "militant" they are usually referring to non-state groups, not to state aparatus. If you meant to say "army" in your first post say so, otherwise you're confusing the army with all the various non-state militant groups in the country
| quote: | | I disagree I still beleive the French and other nations are better trained and have better equipment and support than the Lebanese Army. If this is not the case let me know because I've seen the Lebanese equipment, and I've seen the UN's Expeditionary Force Nations equipment and I think that they are far more formidable and better trained than the Lebanese army. |
The UN isn't there to fight (or even defend). I don't think they have a mandate to enter into any combat situations, if they do, they certainly aren't manned/equipped to do so. They are there primarily as an observer mission. This isn't like the UN forces in Bosnia that were peaceenforcers. They won't become involved in ANY fighting that happens in Lebanon. They might have some nice weapons (ie guns that actually fire) but they lack the numbers to stand up to any of the militias or the Lebanese (or indeed Israeli) army
| quote: | Also - no the Lebanese President does not need to be Maronite.
That is part of the problem - when you always have a marontite president and a sunni PM obviously the Shiites are going to feel oppressed. It is religious discrimination and institutionalization of religion with the state. It is against UN fundamentals of religious tolerance and the premise of Free Democracy |
Until there is a new agreement signed then the President of Lebanon will always be Maronite Christian. The National Pact agreed by all parties at independence states this (altho it is "unwritten", that might confuse those used to American style "written" constitutions but I'm British and our whole constitution is "unwritten" so I am aware that unwritten constitutions are perfectly legally binding).
Altho I completely agree that this system is maybe not so democratic, but then Lebanon is an exception and there needs to be some kind of safeguards in place to prevent one sect gaining control of everything or we'd never see the end of civil war there.
I think the perfect scenario would be years of political reconciliation where all the groups began to see themselves as Lebanese first and foremost, then maybe it wouldn't matter which sect was elected to which positions. However, there are too many meddling outside influcences - from Israel and America, to Syria and Iran - to allow things to simmer down right now... |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by shaolin_Z
Well, that was a predictable consequence of Israel's recent insanity. I'm a bit curious about what makes you think it'll turn in to civil war. Just a simple power vacum? [a serious question btw] |
Well I didn't say it would escelate to civil war! It's just that when a militia group takes over an oppoisition groups stronghold and neighbourhoods, you fear there might be an escelation of violence. Over the weekend, Hizballah clashed in the mountains with Jumblatt's pro-government Druze forces (this group were one of the major players of the civil war). However, the army has deployed there and hostilities appear to have stopped for the time being.
The country is basically split into two groups (very generally speaking) between pro and anti government (unlike during the civil war when the country was split into many many groups). The anti-government include Hizballah, Amal and Aoun's Free Patriotic Movement (which enjoys support from around 70% of the Christians in Lebanon). Then the pro-government (March 14 Alliance) include the Druze, Sunni Muslims and the remainder of the Christian parties (plus others)
During the civil war, Hizballah generally kept its nose out, but now it's the major player in hostilities so who knwos what will happen?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mi...ast/7395421.stm |
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| Magnetonium |
Hezbollah has displayed its agression well enough during this scuffle. Its not just Israel who is their enemy - but anyone who is trying to get in the way of their power and expansion. When any of their officials get sacked, as it became clear in this case, they take up violence. I applaud the Lebanese government response to this act of agression by Hezbollah - they stood aside and prevented a serious conflict from flaring up, saving so many people's lives.
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