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3.3% economic growth last quarter
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| The17sss |
Democrat doom and gloom "1 paycheck away from the soup kitchen" pessimists are ignoring this one: The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, almost twice as much as first predicted. Exports led the way, followed by an increase in personal spending:
| quote: | Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). …
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment.
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Does this cut out the legs from the Democrats in their non-stop themes of complaint regarding the economy? It should, but it probably won’t. A growth rate of 3.3% is a good, solid number, one that shows real substance in the economy. It remains weak in some areas as does the dollar, but fundamentally strong.
The Democrats have tried to make the current economy as bad as the Depression, but in fact it hasn’t even gotten near the Clinton recession that began in his last year in office. They have been hammering themes of economic mismanagement, but the real weaknesses in the economy have bipartisan fingerprints all over them. Chris Dodd’s sweetheart deals with lenders while chairing the Banking Committee certainly looks very suspicious, as did Barack Obama’s own selection of VP vetter Jim Johnson, a major player in the credit-market failure while raking in millions in unreported income at Fannie Mae.
In the end, the scare mongering may still have some resonance, as job growth is a lagging and not leading indicator of recovery. That tactic worked well for Bill Clinton in 1992 when George H. W. Bush couldn’t explain clearly enough that the recovery from the 1991 recession had already begun. In this case, John McCain and the GOP need to point out that Obama intends to attack the incentives for investment needed to continue the growth and create new jobs. They’ll have plenty of time to do that next week, while Democrats continue to insist that the sky is falling when clearly no disaster has occured.
Edit: Earlier it was mentioned that the numbers exceeded inflation, but real GDP already accounts for inflation. The 3.3% annual growth is above inflation already. |
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| The17sss |
...and here's a good analysis, which I'm sure you libs will call bull on. But I think it's pretty dead on:
| quote: | Here's a story from the New York Times: "Average Income Rises Above 2000 Level." (Gasp!) How can this be? George Bush assumed office in 2001!
"Americans enjoyed higher average income in 2006 for the first time since 2000, when the last economic expansion ended... Adjusted gross income reported on tax returns in 2006 averaged $58,029. In 2006 dollars that was an increase of $739..." Look what he inherited in 2000: a mini-recession, and then 9/11 hit -- and America's average income is up! Yet Democrats and the Main Stream Media want everybody to believe that we are soup line America, one paycheck away from being devastated and wiped out. Home prices are in a low, and first-time buyers are going to town, getting into the American dream! Democrats see this as a problem. Don't ask me how. It's just that they see everything positive as a problem, and the way they've structured themselves, it is a problem when things go well.
What kind of fools run a party that requires devastation, depression, and damage in order to succeed? But that's what the modern era of foolish leaders of the Democrat Party have done. That is how they have structured the Democrat Party. They can only gain if the US military loses. They can only gain if they can successfully portray the US military as a bunch of rapist, torturing thugs. They can only gain if people lose their homes. They can only gain if people lose their jobs. They can only gain if people can't fill their tanks. What kind of party would structure itself that way and then try to present itself as the party of the little guy with a video on the first night of the convention showing the Kennedy family wealth? Go figure. This is what we're up against.
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| Q5echo |
i've said before i'm no economist but i can bet at least half of that increased growth percentage was directly attributable to the Bush's rebate checks.
the economy has it's real hazards right now and we're coming to a seasonal lull so the growth, at this moment, imo you have to take with a grain of salt.
i agree though we're whethering a perfect storm and whethering as good as can be expected. that, to me, is a hell of a story. |
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| Krypton |
Sorry, but the economy is still a wreck...And if you look at the stock market, we are still in a bear market, which is a solid indicator of economic health.
| quote: | US GDP rise gives false recovery hope
Tom Bawden, New York
The American economy was more robust in the second quarter than previously reported, according to revised figures that show growth of gross domestic product for the period was 3.3 per cent, ahead of previous estimates of 1.9 per cent.
The revised figures from the Commerce Department compared with a 0.9 per cent increase in the economy in the first quarter.
However, analysts cautioned that much of the GDP growth was driven by the weak dollar, which boosted exports by making America's goods and services cheaper for foreign buyers.
The impact of more than $100 billion (£54.7 billion) worth of tax rebates, made by the US Government to its citizens, also helped to offset the impact of the US housing slump and high energy costs, analysts said.
The US will benefit less in the second half of the year from exports, as the economies of Europe and Japan slow and the dollar continues to gain value.
In addition, as many of the tax rebates have been spent, the economy will not continue to benefit from the fiscal stimulus in the second half.
Lou Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson Icap, said: "The revised GDP figure is certainly not a bad thing, but it is an imprecise estimate of the true health of the economy. It is still the case that GDP could turn negative in the second half."
Brian Fabbri, chief US economist at BNP Paribas, added: "The GDP figure may not say it but this country is still in trouble. Corporate profits have fallen for four consecutive quarters, companies have fired 60,000 workers a month in the past seven months and the outlook for the economy is pretty grim."
Separately, the Labour Department released new figures showing that the number of initial unemployment benefit claims fell by 10,000 to 425,000 in the week ended August 23, marking its third successive weekly decline.
But the jobless figures were in line with expectations and did not reflect a significant change in the underlying economy, analysts said. |
http://business.timesonline.co.uk/t...icle4627450.ece |
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| Krypton |
| I bet you guys if it was Obama sending out stimulus checks, you'de call him a Marxist. |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I bet you guys if it was Obama sending out stimulus checks, you'de call him a Marxist. |
Already do. lol. I'd forward the check directly to the McCain campaign anyway:D |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
I bet you guys if it was Obama sending out stimulus checks, you'de call him a Marxist. |
no, i'd call you a big dookie face. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| Krypton has a point - those rebate checks were a bit of a double-standard. Why do Republicans get a free pass on deficit spending? |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Krypton has a point - those rebate checks were a bit of a double-standard. Why do Republicans get a free pass on deficit spending? |
My point exactly..:gsmile: |
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| atbell |
I'll start with an easy one...
“Favorable macroeconomic performance, even if sustained over some period of time, can mask underlying institutional weaknesses that may become insuperable obstacles to any quick restoration of confidence.”
That's from the report on the reasons why the IMF screwed up so badly in Argentina and effectively caused the crisis to be much worse then it was.
I've got plenty more from this report so feel free to look for reasons why this isn't valid.
Oh, and for those who want to pre-empt me, here's the paper to read:
http://www.ieo-imf.org/eval/complete/eval_07292004.html |
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| George Smiley |
| I'm happy for you, I really am. I'm happy that, after ing up the entire global economy with your irresponsible economic practices, the American economy is showing signs of improvement. I mean, who in the Republican or Democrat party gives two s whether or not nobody else in the world can afford to buy a house any more? |
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| atbell |
I can tell this is going to be fun and I've just read the first two sentances of the quoted article...
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
Democrat doom and gloom "1 paycheck away from the soup kitchen" pessimists are ignoring this one: The US economy grew at an annual rate of 3.3% in the second quarter, almost twice as much as first predicted. Exports led the way, followed by an increase in personal spending:
| quote: |
Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 3.3 percent in the second quarter of 2008, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to preliminary estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.9 percent.
The GDP estimates released today are based on more complete source data than were available for the advance estimates issued last month. In the advance estimates, the increase in real GDP was 1.9 percent (see “Revisions” on page 3). …
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter primarily reflected a larger decrease in imports, an acceleration in exports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in residential fixed investment, and an upturn in state and local government spending that were partly offset by a larger decrease in inventory investment.
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You will note that this is an estimate from the Beureau of Economic Development and it is being presented by an administration who's goal is to show how robust the economy is to maximize thier parties chances of re-election. Until I read the report I don't trust it.
To pull apart what it's saying are the causes of the increase
A decrease in imports is not a great thing for saying the economy is in good shape but it is something that is moving in the right direction.
The acceleration in exports is driven by scrap metal sales and food exports which have seen increases in prices. Relying on comodity prices to argue for the health of an economy (ie: food) has been proven to be wrong many times in the past.
PCE acceleration is "Personal Consumption Expenditures". As noted this is the stimulous package of the socialist Bush government ;) It is a temporary boost for an election year and will be burnt off faster then you can say "We're screwed". It would have been a better sign if the PCE had dropped because then people may have been using thier money to pay off debts or to invest in productive capital, like say a saw for that carpentry business.
State and local government spending is also touchy as it could be politically motivated. It's hard to say if this is good or bad without understanding the financial position of the states / localities that are doing the spending and what they are spending on.
| quote: |
Does this cut out the legs from the Democrats in their non-stop themes of complaint regarding the economy? It should, but it probably won’t. A growth rate of 3.3% is a good, solid number, one that shows real substance in the economy. It remains weak in some areas as does the dollar, but fundamentally strong.
The Democrats have tried to make the current economy as bad as the Depression, but in fact it hasn’t even gotten near the Clinton recession that began in his last year in office. They have been hammering themes of economic mismanagement, but the real weaknesses in the economy have bipartisan fingerprints all over them. Chris Dodd’s sweetheart deals with lenders while chairing the Banking Committee certainly looks very suspicious, as did Barack Obama’s own selection of VP vetter Jim Johnson, a major player in the credit-market failure while raking in millions in unreported income at Fannie Mae.
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Where are you getting this from? You should probably stop before you make a fool of yourself.
A "solid number, one that shows real substance"???? You're saying this about an estimate on quarterly growth in a politically charged time just after the government mails people money. Please stop. ...
but no. This is something that shows that the economy is "fundamentally strong." Yet where is the talk of any fundamentals?
I'd like to see some links to back up those accusations about this guy working for Obama being a key player in the credit problems of the past year. Additionally I'd like you to explain how your links prove your point, not just showing me how some guy on FOX news said it.
| quote: |
In the end, the scare mongering may still have some resonance, as job growth is a lagging and not leading indicator of recovery. That tactic worked well for Bill Clinton in 1992 when George H. W. Bush couldn’t explain clearly enough that the recovery from the 1991 recession had already begun. In this case, John McCain and the GOP need to point out that Obama intends to attack the incentives for investment needed to continue the growth and create new jobs. They’ll have plenty of time to do that next week, while Democrats continue to insist that the sky is falling when clearly no disaster has occured.
Edit: Earlier it was mentioned that the numbers exceeded inflation, but real GDP already accounts for inflation. The 3.3% annual growth is above inflation already. |
"may still have some resonance"??? Do you mean that in the end, dispite being told "things are good" by men in suits, flying around the world, drinking 400$ bottles of wine Americans might realize that it's hard to put food on the table, pay for the house and the car, and put some money away so thier kids can get into some of the most expensive schools in the world?
"no disaster has occured"??? So the fact that the US banks have fallen from a position of respect and prominence around the world isn't a disaster? Check out the Financial Times 500 to see how the US companies have been doing. The Canadians have even gained ground on corporate America. Or maybe "no disaster has occured" in the auto indus ... oh never mind.
Even if that were true, just because things haven't gone wrong doesn't mean they won't. The world is starting to really get a grasp of what some of the problems with the US economy are, if the US voters do to then there is no question that the Republicans will be, and should be, out. No mater how you spin it, no matter how Republican you are, one term out of office is the least that the party should suffer for the mistakes of the past 8 years. |
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