|
Global Trends 2025
|
View this Thread in Original format
| Lira |
I don't know much about the previous issue (Global Trend 2020), but it seems the National Intelligent Council in the US has prepared a quite realistic (but extremely speculative) forecast of what may happen in the next 17 years around the world.
It's been a while since I last read about foreign relations in general, but I think it would be a shame not to share this with you guys. Below is an article, published on the Guardian, that presents a more comprehensive explanation of what this is all about :
| quote: | The United States' leading intelligence organisation has warned that the world is entering an increasingly unstable and unpredictable period in which the advance of western-style democracy is no longer assured, and some states are in danger of being "taken over and run by criminal networks".
The global trends review, produced by the National Intelligence Council (NIC) every four years, represents sobering reading in Barack Obama's intray as he prepares to take office in January. The country he inherits, the report warns, will no longer be able to "call the shots" alone, as its power over an increasingly multipolar world begins to wane.
Looking ahead to 2025, the NIC (which coordinates analysis from all the US intelligence agencies), foresees a fragmented world, where conflict over scarce resources is on the rise, poorly contained by "ramshackle" international institutions, while nuclear proliferation, particularly in the Middle East, and even nuclear conflict grow more likely.
"Global Trends 2025: A World Transformed" warns that the spread of western democratic capitalism cannot be taken for granted, as it was by George Bush and America's neoconservatives.
"No single outcome seems preordained: the Western model of economic liberalism, democracy and secularism, for example, which many assumed to be inevitable, may lose its lustre – at least in the medium term," the report warns.
It adds: "Today wealth is moving not just from West to East but is concentrating more under state control," giving the examples of China and Russia.
"In the wake of the 2008 global financial crisis, the state's role in the economy may be gaining more appeal throughout the world."
At the same time, the US will become "less dominant" in the world – no longer the unrivalled superpower it has been since the end of the Cold War, but a "first among equals" in a more fluid and evenly balanced world, making the unilateralism of the Bush era no longer tenable.
The report predicts that over the next two decades "the multiplicity of influential actors and distrust of vast power means less room for the US to call the shots without the support of strong partnerships."
It is a conclusion that meshes with president elect Obama's stated preference for multilateralism, but the NIC findings suggest that as the years go by it could be harder for Washington to put together "coalitions of the willing" to pursue its agenda.
International organisations, like the UN, seem ill-prepared to fill the vacuum left by receding American power, at a time of multiple potential crises driven by climate change the increasing scarcity of resources like oil, food and water. Those institutions "appear incapable of rising to the challenges without concerted efforts from their leaders" it says.
In an unusually graphic illustration of a possible future, the report presents an imaginary "presidential diary entry" from October 1, 2020, that recounts a devastating hurricane, fuelled by global warming, hitting New York in the middle of the UN's annual general assembly.
"I guess we had it coming, but it was a rude shock," the unnamed president writes. "Some of the scenes were like the stuff from the World War II newsreels, only this time it was not Europe but Manhattan. Those images of the US aircraft carriers and transport ships evacuating thousands in the wake of the flooding still stick in my mind."
As he flies off for an improvised UN reception on board an aircraft carrier, the imaginary future president admits: "The cumulation of disasters, permafrost melting, lower agricultural yields, growing health problems, and the like are taking a terrible toll, much greater than we anticipated 20 years ago."
The last time the NIC published its quadrennial glimpse into the future was December 2004. President Bush had just been re-elected and was preparing his triumphal second inauguration that was to mark the high-water mark for neoconservatism. That report matched the mood of the times.
It was called Mapping the Global Future, and looked forward as far as 2020 when it projected "continued US dominance, positing that most major powers have forsaken the idea of balancing the US".
That confidence is entirely lacking from this far more sober assessment. Also gone is the belief that oil and gas supplies "in the ground" were "sufficient to meet global demand". The new report views a transition to cleaner fuels as inevitable. It is just the speed that is in question.
The NIC believes it is most likely that technology will lag behind the depletion of oil and gas reserves. A sudden transition, however, will bring problems of its own, creating instability in the Gulf and Russia.
While emerging economies like China, India and Brazil are likely to grow in influence at America's expense, the same cannot be said of the European Union. The NIC appears relatively certain the EU will be "losing clout" by 2025. Internal bickering and a "democracy gap" separating Brussels from European voters will leave the EU "a hobbled giant", unable to translate its economic clout into global influence.
Disaster diary
An imaginary diary entry written by a future US president, produced to illustrate a climate-change disaster:
Those images of US aircraft carriers evacuating thousands in the wake of flooding stick in my mind. Why must the hurricane season coincide with the UN general assembly in New York?
It's bad enough that this had to happen; it was doubly embarrassing that half the world's leaders were here to witness it. I guess the problem is we had counted on this not happening, at least not yet. |
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/20/barack-obama-president-intelligence-agency |
|
|
| Leon Trotsky |
| It's about time someone started questioning the BRIC theory. These countries aren't getting anywhere near superpower status. China is barely handling this global recession, Russia is in the ter again, and Brazil's economy is less than extraordinary. India's technology manufacturing based economy might be the best bet, but they have enemies surrounding every corner just itching to kick their ass. |
|
|
| Arbiter |
| quote: | Originally posted by Leon Trotsky
It's about time someone started questioning the BRIC theory. These countries aren't getting anywhere near superpower status. China is barely handling this global recession, Russia is in the ter again, and Brazil's economy is less than extraordinary. India's technology manufacturing based economy might be the best bet, but they have enemies surrounding every corner just itching to kick their ass. |
Yeah. Not anytime soon, anyway...
Also, compare the 2020 and 2025 reports and tell me these guys aren't suffing from some seriously horrendous recency biases. I'm a big fan of trying to take the long view of things, but very few people seem to do it on a global scale without getting their cognitive wires crossed before they even get out of the starting gate.
It's hard for me to take something like this seriously, when in all probability they'll issue another report in 4 years saying that 2030 is going to be completely different than it would be if their predictions here had any merit... |
|
|
| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by Leon Trotsky
Brazil's economy is less than extraordinary |
We're doing quite well, actually. As a matter of fact, our greatest problem is just that the distribution of wealth sucks but, except for a brief period of instability in the 80's (which almost tore our economy apart), Brazil has been doing a fine job.
I'd be a lot more worried about our education, not about our economy. |
|
|
| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
We're doing quite well, actually. As a matter of fact, our greatest problem is just that the distribution of wealth sucks but, except for a brief period of instability in the 80's (which almost tore our economy apart), Brazil has been doing a fine job.
I'd be a lot more worried about our education, not about our economy. |
as your economy moves from production to services the long term health of your economy is directly related to the success of your higher education system. This is why the UK, Japan, Germany, and the US will be fine. These countries (and other western countries) continually push out of universities some really bright mofos. If brazil doesn't start developing some high quality minds your country won't go much further than providing raw materials for the US, China, and Europe. |
|
|
| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
If brazil doesn't start developing some high quality minds your country won't go much further than providing raw materials for the US, China, and Europe. |
That's exactly why I'm worried about it :p |
|
|
| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Leon Trotsky
It's about time someone started questioning the BRIC theory. These countries aren't getting anywhere near superpower status. China is barely handling this global recession, Russia is in the ter again, and Brazil's economy is less than extraordinary. India's technology manufacturing based economy might be the best bet, but they have enemies surrounding every corner just itching to kick their ass. |
Unlike the US whose economy is simply flourishing... |
|
|
| guerra-monstru |
| quote: | Originally posted by DrUg_Tit0
Unlike the US whose economy is simply flourishing... |
....its doing better than the majority of countries he mentioned. At least India is doing some major progress in space and brazil well its brazil. |
|
|
| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by Leon Trotsky
It's about time someone started questioning the BRIC theory. These countries aren't getting anywhere near superpower status. China is barely handling this global recession, Russia is in the ter again, and Brazil's economy is less than extraordinary. India's technology manufacturing based economy might be the best bet, but they have enemies surrounding every corner just itching to kick their ass. |
Everyone of the BRIC countries is looking better then the US.
Brazil has massive amounts of resources and very low domestic demand. That means lots of oil and iron ore (steel) to export or process ... but who needs oil and steel?? The big problems in Brazil is the drug trade which is the significant contributor to the sustinance of the slums, the gun trade, and the high rates of violent crime. Check out "Eleite Force" for a good documentary about it, or talk to Lira...
Russia has weathered the crisis better then the US because of its resouce wealth which was well managed. The country had about $US 200 billion in cash on hand to add into the markets as liquidity (not like the US which has issued more debt), not to mention that they have been using thier foreign currency reserves to add additional liquidity. The problems with Russia have been mainly due to popular national fears of a run on the currency which have lead to a bit of a move into US$, which will reverse as the problems in the US get bigger and bigger (or better and better understood). They've also suffered from a western (anglo?) bias which maintains that Russia is backwards, aggressive, and dumb, contrary to any of thier responses to the crisis. I've picked up some subtle racisim in Russia but that's mostly speculation and I've no idea how deep it runs.
India is probably the worst placed of all the BRIC countries. It went into the crisis baddly hit from food and oil subsidies while the prices for both soared over 2007/08. A saving grace was the countries large tier one bank reserve requirements. They were able to addjust that to let more liquidity into the markets instead of having to print more money. From what I've read (a lot) the country has been relatively quiet in terms of macro economic banking . On big problem does loom right over top of India though, Pakistan. That will keep India busy for a long time and will probably slow it's acention to world power status.
China has been doing ok. One of the big problems the Chinese have faced is a massive drop in expectations due to thier close ties to the US. Some of thier responses have been a little odd too, in particular they have been implementing policies to increase home ownership (such as reducing down payment minimums) which is rather odd seeing as that seems to have been one of the main causes of the problems in the west. That being said, China (like India) still has massive amounts of infastructure development to do. There are roads, railways, buildings, cars, washing mashines, plumbing, electric grids, dishwashers, refrigerators, and TVs to be sold to a total of 2.3 billion people. That's a lot of expanding left to do. |
|
|
| atbell |
| quote: | Originally posted by guerra-monstru
....its doing better than the majority of countries he mentioned. At least India is doing some major progress in space and brazil well its brazil. |
By what measure? FOX news economic indicators report?
There hasn't been any good news about the US economy since the crash in September. Mortgage and credit card deliquencies are sky rocketing all over the country (especially in Florida and California), and there's likely more to come. The effects of the layoffs in Oct. and early Nov. are not even registering yet (58,000 or so at Citi alone).
Then lets play the space game...
China recently sent up a
or
| quote: |
China will launch a telecommunication satellite, 'PakSat-1R' for Pakistan in 2011, according to Xinhua report. Pakistan will use this satellite for domestic telecommunication and broadcast services. The contract for this initiative was sealed on October 15, 2008 in the presence of both Presidents from China and Pakistan.
http://www.pakwatan.com/business_detail.php?id=4640
|
How about India...
and the US, well ...
| quote: |
But funding worries — and the question of how U.S. astronauts and equipment will get to and from the structure when it is finished in 2010 — leaves its future still uncertain.
The space shuttle is slated for retirement then, and there is no heavy-lifting rocket immediately available to replace it.
http://www.kansascity.com/news/nation/story/899830.html
|
The worst part is that nothing is going to get done and the crisis is going to spread into a full fledge depression just because Amaricans (the general population and far to many of the people in power) are arrogant, miopic, and self centred.
Like an alcoholic, the first step to recovery is addmiting you have a problem, until that happens things just keep getting worse.
(that should get some people on the offensive ;) ) |
|
|
| DJ Shibby |
I fail to see how the decline of US dominance automatically equates to a negative global impact.
Did they even stop to think that perhaps many good things could come of such an occurrence? If it even actually happens. |
|
|
| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by atbell
The big problems in Brazil is the drug trade which is the significant contributor to the sustinance of the slums, the gun trade, and the high rates of violent crime. Check out "Eleite Force" for a good documentary about it |
/
Agreed. The GT2025 actually mentions this problem and, along with education, I think this is one of the most important obstacles we need to overcome.
It's been hard to deal with some of our neighbours as well. Not only Venezuela and Bolivia, for obvious reasons, but even Paraguay... it feels as though we became the local scape goat (a role the US used to play :p). |
|
|
|
|
