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Any Day Traders on TA? (pg. 9)
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| English Rachel |
| quote: | Originally posted by rabbitjoker
HAHAHA!
You better fancy losing your shorts as well. |
That's not a tip! |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by English Rachel
That's not a tip! |
sure it is ;)
anyways.. oil and natural gas are going up. Bell just acquired virgin. But the market isnt corresponding to these supposed gains.
any ideas?
I was thinking about going into enbridge but they dont seem to move very much. And bell canada seems to be on "sale". might be a good idea. |
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| DigiNut |
| quote: | Originally posted by Skipper
The vibe has completely changed at the office this week. TSX over 10,000, some good Q1 numbers coming out (some bad too, but some good), some positive indicators in the market...could be the start of something worthwhile! |
Yeah, gotta love the bull market hype... BAC needs to pay back $34 billion and they have no idea how they're going to raise that much capital, but they'll probably find a way, HOLY THAT'S GREAT NEWS LET'S BUY THAT ONE!! $600 billion in credit losses, NO PROBLEM! |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by DigiNut
Yeah, gotta love the bull market hype... BAC needs to pay back $34 billion and they have no idea how they're going to raise that much capital, but they'll probably find a way, HOLY THAT'S GREAT NEWS LET'S BUY THAT ONE!! $600 billion in credit losses, NO PROBLEM! |
you could also attempt to make tons of money off nortel before they head off to pinksheets lol
check out air canada as well.. they climbed up 48 % today. and even 100% in the past few days. |
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| DigiNut |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
check out air canada as well.. they climbed up 48 % today. and even 100% in the past few days. |
Yeah, I don't know anybody who owned Air Canada stock, lol. Congratulations to those folks who bought in during March/April and held 'til now; but apparently it's only up on speculation, so I'd be selling now.
I swear, the markets this week, it's like the worse the news, the harder the rally. I think somebody spiked the coffee on Wall St. With ecstasy. |
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| Skipper |
| Generally I would agree that a financial crisis like what we've seen warrants a longer recession, but there are tangible signs in the market that things are getting at least less bad, if not actually improving. Housing, credit spreads, access to debt markets, equity raises, M&A - it's all picking up. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines right now, so this could last for quite awhile if people start believing it's sustainable. |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| Im losing my shirt on rim as we speak lol Well i got them at 85.50 but they are being volatile today. I will sell at 90 or maybe even 89. They dropped down to 83 today. ugh |
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| Skipper |
Interesting article in the globe on Hermes, the French luxury retailer. I can't seem to link it, it's in the subscriber only site and I read the in print version.
Basically says that because of the insanely long lead times on the Birkin bags (years), and the fact that the bags are paid for when delivered, not ordered, the lead time serves as a hedge for the Company, as bags delivered now were ordered when times were good a few years ago.
If orders drop, then Hermes has several years to find a way to offset the decline in revenue. Pretty cool if you ask me.
I'd looooove to be a retail analyst. Imagine being a luxury goods analyst? drooool. |
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| SSSanchez |
| quote: | Originally posted by Skipper
Generally I would agree that a financial crisis like what we've seen warrants a longer recession, but there are tangible signs in the market that things are getting at least less bad, if not actually improving. Housing, credit spreads, access to debt markets, equity raises, M&A - it's all picking up. There's a lot of cash on the sidelines right now, so this could last for quite awhile if people start believing it's sustainable. |
How can you suggest that a recession of this scale warrants a longer duration when there is no way of predicting a recession and its length? Or for that matter, growth 1 year from now? The aspired 3.5% annual average real GDP in the U.S. may end up being 2% for a long time.
Some interesting tidbits/discussion that I have followed recently:
Fama & French...famous for the EMH) on market volatility
http://www.dimensional.com/famafren...et-of-2008.html
Working paper from the Boston Fed
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2007/wp0715.pdf
Data suggests that 28% of mortgage defaults, and 60% of subprime defaults in Massachusetts were prime households; a confirmation of real financial distress in U.S. households prior to the 'boom'. |
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| Skipper |
| quote: | Originally posted by SSSanchez
How can you suggest that a recession of this scale warrants a longer duration when there is no way of predicting a recession and its length? Or for that matter, growth 1 year from now? The aspired 3.5% annual average real GDP in the U.S. may end up being 2% for a long time.
Some interesting tidbits/discussion that I have followed recently:
Fama & French...famous for the EMH) on market volatility
http://www.dimensional.com/famafren...et-of-2008.html
Working paper from the Boston Fed
http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/wp/wp2007/wp0715.pdf
Data suggests that 28% of mortgage defaults, and 60% of subprime defaults in Massachusetts were prime households; a confirmation of real financial distress in U.S. households prior to the 'boom'. |
The market didn't build enough of a base along the bottom. Every technical analyst will tell you that a true recovery has to come after a true bottom, and that just wasn't it.
Maybe a better way of phrasing my comment is that given the scale of the financial crisis, I believe there are still a lot of bad assets hidden on balance sheets, and I believe the US consumer will not recover for a very long time. Ergo, the economy can't recover for a very long time either. |
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| SSSanchez |
| quote: | Originally posted by Skipper
The market didn't build enough of a base along the bottom. Every technical analyst will tell you that a true recovery has to come after a true bottom, and that just wasn't it.
Maybe a better way of phrasing my comment is that given the scale of the financial crisis, I believe there are still a lot of bad assets hidden on balance sheets, and I believe the US consumer will not recover for a very long time. Ergo, the economy can't recover for a very long time either. |
Technical analysis = voodoo = black box approach; can't value a true bottom by historical trends. A true bottom can be theoretically zero. There is simply too much that has gone on, so many distinct issues, too much complexity (e.g, CDO^n's), too little transparency, too little understanding, so many initiatives by government. |
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| Skipper |
| quote: | Originally posted by SSSanchez
Technical analysis = voodoo = black box approach; can't value a true bottom by historical trends. A true bottom can be theoretically zero. There is simply too much that has gone on, so many distinct issues, too much complexity (e.g, CDO^n's), too little transparency, too little understanding, so many initiatives by government. |
Technical analysis has been winning the day over fundamentals in this market; I don't think it should be dismissed so easily. |
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