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The economy is improving (pg. 8)
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
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bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
*gasp gasp*
hahahahahahahahahahaha!! (continued)
Gotta love government statistics. More people are getting fired each month yet the unemployment rate drops... hahahahahahaha!!! (continued)
Sorry krypt, but people who exhaust their unemployment benefits and drop off the dole are not suddenly employed and contributing to the economy. They are still unemployed but uncounted..just as people who have given up looking for work aren't counted (they are labeled "discouraged" workers and not included in the statistics.)
The true unemployment rate is probably closer to 18% today. If you want to play games and base it on the number of people still collecting benefits go for it. Heck, why don't we reduce unemployment benefits to 3 months. That should knock the official unemployment rate down to 3%. Happy days are here again! :haha:\ |
Then by all means, verify your 18% figure. Let's see it. |
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| The17sss |
| You guys are so reactionary when a piece of short term good news comes out. The big picture? We were promised the unemployment rate would max out at 8% if the stimulus WASN'T passed. Now it's at 9.4% WITH a failed economic recovery plan. What good is this news really, when it's already understood unemployment is expected to go over 10% in the next year, the welfare and food stamp roles are at their highest levels ever, planned layoffs rose 31% (meaning higher than expected firings are coming in the near future), businesses are still not hiring, and corporate tax revenues to the government are the lowest in 48 years (meaning here comes the tax increases, meaning expect more layoffs). |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
[/SIZE]
bwahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!
*gasp gasp*
hahahahahahahahahahaha!! (continued)
Gotta love government statistics. More people are getting fired each month yet the unemployment rate drops...lolol
Sorry krypt, but people who exhaust their unemployment benefits and drop off the dole are not suddenly employed and contributing to the economy. They are still unemployed but uncounted..just as people who have given up looking for work aren't counted (they are labeled "discouraged" workers and not included in the statistics.)
The true unemployment rate is probably closer to 18% today. If you want to play games and say the number of people filing weekly claims are the only ones unemployed, go for it. Heck, why don't we reduce unemployment benefits to 60 days? That should knock the official unemployment rate down to 1%. Happy days are here again! :haha: |
He is right, Krypton... the people who have exhausted their unemployment benefits and are still not employed are not counted in those government statistics. Good Point, Capatilizit. |
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| Capitalizt |
The broader measure of unemployment called U-6 includes discouraged workers who have given up because they can't find regular jobs due to "adverse economic conditions". The official term for them is "marginally attached".
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm
Even the government stats show the true rate is at 16.3% krypt..and you should know better than to have much faith in government statistics. If those numbers are fudged (which is likely IMO), I think an actual rate of 18-19% isn't out of the question. |
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| The17sss |
and here's an extra dash of cold water and reason on those numbers:
| quote: | In June, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said the civilian labor force was 154,926,000 people.
In July, 796,000 of those were taken out of their definition of the workforce, and thus their unemployment calculations for this month, because they have stopped looking for work “because they believe no jobs are available for them.” Ten percent of the June workforce would be 15.4 million, 1 percent would be 1.5 million, and so 796,000 is roughly one half of one percent.
In other words, BLS took .5 percent of what you and I would consider unemployed and took them out of their total. And with that, unemployment went down one tenth of one percent.
Of course, if you take the July number of unemployed, 14.5 million, and add that 796,000 of discouraged workers, you get a total of 15,296,000.
In a work force of July’s number of 154,504,000, that’s an unemployment rate of 9.9 percent.
In a work for of June’s number of 154,926,000, that’s an unemployment rate of 9.8 percent
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http://campaignspot.nationalreview....zc3MmMxNzEzYWM=
Score 1 for Capitalizt |
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| Joss Weatherby |
One of my small regional bank stocks was up almost six and a half percent on the day. Its up 20% on the week. :D
Invest in COLB!!! :D |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
You guys are so reactionary when a piece of short term good news comes out. The big picture? We were promised the unemployment rate would max out at 8% if the stimulus WASN'T passed. Now it's at 9.4% WITH a failed economic recovery plan. What good is this news really, when it's already understood unemployment is expected to go over 10% in the next year, the welfare and food stamp roles are at their highest levels ever, planned layoffs rose 31% (meaning higher than expected firings are coming in the near future), businesses are still not hiring, and corporate tax revenues to the government are the lowest in 48 years (meaning here comes the tax increases, meaning expect more layoffs). |
Yea, we're in a recession. Higher unemployment is a given. But again, it's a lagging indicator. The business has to start losing money before they lay people off. The business also has to start doing better before they start hiring again. This is happening. Inventories are down, costs cut, and and money flowing into and throughout the economy again. Just what you need for businesses to hire again. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Joss Weatherby
One of my small regional bank stocks was up almost six and a half percent on the day. Its up 20% on the week. :D
Invest in COLB!!! :D |
Ya, my GME is up 11% in 3 days... :-) |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
Good Point, Capatilizit. |
yeah, if stating the bleeding obvious can be described as a good point. every time employment figures are released, one side will always focus on the "less people looking for work angle" if they're out of government, or the lower unemployment figures if they're in government. |
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| inconspicuous |
| the iq bell curve just shifted to the left with this thread. |
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| Krypton |
I have written a stock analysis report on GameStop (GME). Check it out. If any of you are looking to buy into the coming bull market.
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GME has sustained double digit earnings growth since 2004 with a strong correlation in the stock performance. The recession of 2008 has resulted in a disconnect between GME’s earnings curve and its stock price. This indicates an opportunity to buy into GME while its earnings power remains unrecognized by the market. Chief Financial Officer David Carlson has bought in excess of $1 million worth of GME stock. This is an indication that insiders inside the company are bullish. GME is valued at $35.73 for FY2010. With a current price of $22.86, GME is 56% undervalued for the fiscal year. GME’s PE indicates the company is cheap relative to its competitors. Quarterly revenue growth is above the industry average. Gross and operating margins are also above GME’s leading competitors.
http://finance.com/yahoo_site_admin...E.219151238.pdf |
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