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Fall 09 Economic picture
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| atbell |
Yesterday the Financial Times had two contradictory articles running one / two on thier website. One was 'Yeah, we're doing great!' the other was ', we're ed' (to paraphrase).
This seems to be the exact same opinion as almost everyone I know is holding. The only differences are which story gets to be put on top.
I'm still pesimistic. I think that denial is rampant, the value of the US $ is precarious at best, and that the mountains of debt held by organizations and individuals in the US is going to create continued problems. My biggest focus is on the state government debt levels. California is the only state that has really made news in this regard and I've seen an article on Arizona, but there are many more states which are as bad or worse yet receive no coverage.
But I'm definately cautious because there are sources I've come across who's opinions I respect even if I don't always agree with them and those sources are upbeat. The big group who is positive is the Fed. but I have yet to read exactly why they are looking up.
What's everyone else think? Are things bad on the ground in your locals? How angry are these protesting conservatives? |
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| Krypton |
| I think we'll be down or flat for the third and maybe fourth quarter 2009. |
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| Capitalizt |
economy down, markets and commodity prices up..as they reflect the dollar falling off a cliff. You might "win" temporarily and stay afloat if you are in the right assets..but in the long run, this fiscal and monetary insanity will make us all lose.
Of course the God of the interventionist school (John Maynard Keynes) gave us timeless bits of wisdom like "In the long run, we're all dead." so I suppose we shouldn't worry too much. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| How much time has to go by without an economic apocalypse before Cap starts changing his tune? |
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| Capitalizt |
| I dunno lez, but $15+ trillion in lost wealth, a global recession, and mind numbing amounts of new debt is pretty semi-apocalyptic in my book.. And I've never predicted the end of the world..just the end of the dollar ;) |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
How much time has to go by without an economic apocalypse before Cap starts changing his tune? |
Lol, so true. He has this giant record bag but only one track to play. |
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| Capitalizt |
| The track is playing out pk...at a faster pace that I anticipated. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| But a timetable on it so you can't keep extending the deadline for Doomsday. |
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| Arbiter |
| As usual with such situations, the truth lies somewhere in the middle |
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| Lilith |
| Australia has been on the up, very strong 1st and 2nd quarter, 3rd expected to be slightly more moderate in growth rates. About the only areas not contributing strongly are agriculture, fisheries and forestry. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Capitalizt
I dunno lez, but $15+ trillion in lost wealth, a global recession, and mind numbing amounts of new debt is pretty semi-apocalyptic in my book.. And I've never predicted the end of the world..just the end of the dollar ;) |
Your predictions are on par with me predicting it's going to rain soon. |
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