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PVD @ VIVA , SARS, go or stay home? (pg. 3)
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| ~FAIRY~ |
the question is :
Does PVD know about this ? and what's he gonna do? |
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| DigiNut |
I thought I'd try to add something somewhat useful, so here's my back-of-the-envelope statistical calculation for "death by PvD:"
(I'm not going to use PMF's or anything, since half of this is speculation anyway, there's no reason to get so technical)
Population of Toronto: 2.5 million
Reported cases in all of Ontario: 60 probable, 69 suspect
Estimated probability of person with SARS breaking quarrantine: 10%
Max. mortality rate: 5%
Estimated people from Toronto @ PvD: 1000; Total: 1500
Estimated # of people you come into somewhat close contact with at a club: 500
Estimated chance of them coughing/sneezing on you/etc while you are in contact with them: 50%
Estimated probability of getting infected if this happens: 100%
P ~ (69 * 0.1 / 2.5M) * 1000 * (500 / 1500) * 0.5 * 0.05 = 0.000023 (0.0023%, or 1 in 43478)
To compare, probabilities of death from:
Alcohol: 1 in 1000
Contact Sports: 1 in 50000
Ecstasy, air/road travel, food poisoning, falling down the stairs, murder, caught in house fire, etc: approx. 1 in 100000
I'd say this is a pretty conservative estimate, so the way I see it, the chances of actually getting killed from going to this party (or any other) are only marginally greater than typical things we do every day.
You want to tell me my assumptions are wrong, fine, I really don't care, I'm going to the party anyway. :p |
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| Ortemy |
| quote: | Originally posted by DigiNut
I thought I'd try to add something somewhat useful, so here's my back-of-the-envelope statistical calculation for "death by PvD:"
(I'm not going to use PMF's or anything, since half of this is speculation anyway, there's no reason to get so technical)
Population of Toronto: 2.5 million
Reported cases in all of Ontario: 60 probable, 69 suspect
Estimated probability of person with SARS breaking quarrantine: 10%
Max. mortality rate: 5%
Estimated people from Toronto @ PvD: 1000; Total: 1500
Estimated # of people you come into somewhat close contact with at a club: 500
Estimated chance of them coughing/sneezing on you/etc while you are in contact with them: 50%
Estimated probability of getting infected if this happens: 100%
P ~ (69 * 0.1 / 2.5M) * 1000 * (500 / 1500) * 0.5 * 0.05 = 0.000023 (0.0023%, or 1 in 43478)
To compare, probabilities of death from:
Alcohol: 1 in 1000
Contact Sports: 1 in 50000
Ecstasy, air/road travel, food poisoning, falling down the stairs, murder, caught in house fire, etc: approx. 1 in 100000
I'd say this is a pretty conservative estimate, so the way I see it, the chances of actually getting killed from going to this party (or any other) are only marginally greater than typical things we do every day.
You want to tell me my assumptions are wrong, fine, I really don't care, I'm going to the party anyway. :p |
My point exactly. I am risking my life more when I drive on a highway. |
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| d!abolic |
| Odds of dying from SARS: 1:900,000. Odds of dying in your car on the way to the club: 1:15,000. Heh, and you're worried about SARS? Someone who knows this stuff could probably name dozens of things that are far more likely to kill you that night. Long story short: don't worry about it! :) |
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| Bizz |
| quote: | Originally posted by DigiNut
I thought I'd try to add something somewhat useful, so here's my back-of-the-envelope statistical calculation for "death by PvD:"
(I'm not going to use PMF's or anything, since half of this is speculation anyway, there's no reason to get so technical)
Population of Toronto: 2.5 million
Reported cases in all of Ontario: 60 probable, 69 suspect
Estimated probability of person with SARS breaking quarrantine: 10%
Max. mortality rate: 5%
Estimated people from Toronto @ PvD: 1000; Total: 1500
Estimated # of people you come into somewhat close contact with at a club: 500
Estimated chance of them coughing/sneezing on you/etc while you are in contact with them: 50%
Estimated probability of getting infected if this happens: 100%
P ~ (69 * 0.1 / 2.5M) * 1000 * (500 / 1500) * 0.5 * 0.05 = 0.000023 (0.0023%, or 1 in 43478)
To compare, probabilities of death from:
Alcohol: 1 in 1000
Contact Sports: 1 in 50000
Ecstasy, air/road travel, food poisoning, falling down the stairs, murder, caught in house fire, etc: approx. 1 in 100000
I'd say this is a pretty conservative estimate, so the way I see it, the chances of actually getting killed from going to this party (or any other) are only marginally greater than typical things we do every day.
You want to tell me my assumptions are wrong, fine, I really don't care, I'm going to the party anyway. :p |
This is brilliant work.
Unless there is a *major* breakout of SARS, it's not likely I'm gonna miss PVD. If I can't go cuz of SARS, then why the am I going to school to write exams this month? There are equally as many Asians from Scarborough and York region that take engineering with me at U of T, and they pose just as much a threat of SARS as those at Viva. |
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| dEsidEL |
serious ..
i honestly believe that more ppl die of the flu and West Nile each year than SARS not to mention that the former are possibly easier to contract. and like i've told ppl as well .. ur chances of dying in a car accident are greater .. so just remember ..
PROTECT YOURSELF AND NOT YOUR BABY !!! |
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| rubyriva |
i'm GOING!!
i'd rather have 'death by PvD' than any other
:p |
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| Muff2K |
DAMMIT!!
don't you people realize that you don't have to go around catching people's sneeze's in order to get SARS??
my friend's grandma has been in quarantine 10 days with pneumonia/sars symptoms
the doctors in hamilton don't want to say it's SARS, they called it somethign else until they can figure out what exactly it is.
there are 3 people in hamilton with probably cases of SARS
they had no contact with asians or torontonians in teh last month, it was reported
this virus could be airborne for all we know |
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| Muff2K |
2003-11
April 2, 2003
6:30 pm
Advisory
UPDATE #18 - Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome
New in this update:
Health Canada Support for Ontario.
Latest Canadian numbers on SARS.
Health Canada Support for Ontario
Health Canada is deploying an additional six personnel to Ontario on April 3, 2003 to work with the Ontario team. This is in addition to the six staff Health Canada has deployed to assist Toronto’s Public Health unit and the Ontario Ministry of Health with the investigation of the SARS cases. The department has also provided guidelines for infection control and recommendations on actions for public health settings.
On March 31, 2003, Health Canada sent two mobile x-ray machines and processors to Toronto for two isolation units being set up in non-hospital facilities.
Health Canada is ready to respond to additional requests for support from Ontario and other provinces and territories.
Latest Canadian Numbers on SARS
As of April 2, 2003, Health Canada has received reports of 160 probable or suspect cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Canada. There have been six deaths in Canada. All Canadian cases have occurred in persons who have traveled to Asia or had contact with SARS cases in the household or in a health-care setting. The information contained in this update is based on the best available information Health Canada has at this time.
The details of the cases to date are as follows:
Ontario is reporting 60 probable and 69 suspect cases. All cases have occurred in persons who have traveled to Asia or had contact with SARS cases in the household or in a health-care setting.
British Columbia is reporting 2 probable and 16 suspect cases.
New Brunswick is reporting 1 suspect case.
Saskatchewan is reporting 1 suspect case.
Alberta is reporting 7 suspect cases.
Prince Edward Island is reporting 4 suspect cases.
At this time, the cause of SARS remains unknown, however national and international laboratory testing and collaboration is ongoing. |
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| quddha |
lol, fine. you scaredy cats can stay home then.
I'll go enjoy pvd and live to tell the tale. You guys will just have to wait another year or two until he comes back.
My girlfriend subways downtown to and from scarborough (the area where they shut down schools) everyday. She hasn't gotten sars yet, and she's been inside packed subway cars everyday. (just like a club setting) Thats equivalent to 2 hours of Viva-Sars-exposure everyday.
I don't see how going to Viva would increase your chances of getting SARS. Unless it has to do with the whole Markham=Asian, and Asian=SARS (Sick Asians Really Suck). :P
man, I went to eat at a chinese restaurant last week. I'm still alive!
How many of those markham SARS infected asians come downtown for school? Lots, if the risk was so great from coming in contact with everyday asians from Viva, all of Toronto would be infected by now. The people who go to Viva are the same people who sit beside you in lecture, the same people who ride your subway, and the same people who make your chicken fried rice. |
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| TranceLudak |
| quote: | Originally posted by quddha
lol, fine. you scaredy cats can stay home then.
I'll go enjoy pvd and live to tell the tale. You guys will just have to wait another year or two until he comes back.
My girlfriend subways downtown to and from scarborough (the area where they shut down schools) everyday. She hasn't gotten sars yet, and she's been inside packed subway cars everyday. (just like a club setting) Thats equivalent to 2 hours of Viva-Sars-exposure everyday.
I don't see how going to Viva would increase your chances of getting SARS. Unless it has to do with the whole Markham=Asian, and Asian=SARS (Sick Asians Really Suck). :P
man, I went to eat at a chinese restaurant last week. I'm still alive!
How many of those markham SARS infected asians come downtown for school? Lots, if the risk was so great from coming in contact with everyday asians from Viva, all of Toronto would be infected by now. The people who go to Viva are the same people who sit beside you in lecture, the same people who ride your subway, and the same people who make your chicken fried rice. |
hahaha....cool post:crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: :crazy: |
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