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Rasmussen reports indicate that Bush has just a 1% lead over Kerry!
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| imokruok |
Yep. And Rasmussen had the worst results in the 2000 election.
On the other hand, the CNN/Gallup poll today shows Bush up by 7 with a 4 point bounce from the convention. Not that I trust CNN/Gallup all that much either, but they were right on the money in 2000. |
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| speedracer_mec |
| quote: | Originally posted by imokruok
Yep. And Rasmussen had the worst results in the 2000 election.
On the other hand, the CNN/Gallup poll today shows Bush up by 7 with a 4 point bounce from the convention. Not that I trust CNN/Gallup all that much either, but they were right on the money in 2000. |
I trust cnn/gallup poll above all other polls
and yea rasmussen was off last time around |
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| TuanAnh213 |
| how about we can't trust a single poll? okay if CNN were right on the money in 2000 does that indicate that they were consistent in every other presidential race year? |
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| AnotherWay83 |
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Pol...%20Sept%206.htm
Differences Between Polls
Full Week Tracking Update
Sept 2 Bush + 2.8
August 26 Bush + 0.3
August 19 Kerry + 1.2
August 12 Kerry + 2.8
August 5 Kerry + 1.9
RasmussenReports.com
September 6, 2004--We have been flooded with e-mails asking (in varying tones of politeness) why our poll results seem different from those released by Time and Newsweek.
There are two basic explanations, one involving our polling data and one involving the newsmagazines. For those who need to know the answer before the explanation, the bottom line is that the President is ahead by 4 to 5 points at this time. That's a significant improvement over the past few weeks, but not a double digit lead.
Our current poll (showing the President ahead by just over a point) includes a Saturday sample that is way out of synch with all the days before it and with the Sunday data that followed. In fact, Saturday's one-day sample showed a big day for Kerry while all the days surrounding it showed a decent lead for the President.
It seems likely that Saturday reflects a rogue sample (especially since it was over a holiday weekend). But, it remains in our 3-day rolling average for one more day (Tuesday's report). If we drop the Saturday sample from our data, Bush is currently ahead by about 4 percentage points in the Rasmussen Reports Tracking Poll.
That's still a smaller lead than shown by Time and Newsweek. Those polls appear to have the mirror image problem of a Los Angeles Times poll in June reportedly showing Kerry with a huge lead. That LA Times survey included too many Democrats in their sample. Today, it seems likely that Time and Newsweek included too many Republicans.
Time reports that Republicans will vote for Bush by an 89% to 9% margin; Democrats for Kerry by an 80% to 9% margin; and, unaffiliated voters for Bush 43% to 39%.
Four years ago, 35% of voters were Republicans, 39% were Democrats, and the rest were unaffiliated. If you apply those percentages to the Time internals, you find Bush up by about 3 percentage points. If you do the same with the Newsweek internal numbers, you find Bush with a six point lead. Those results are very close to the Rasmussen Reports data (excluding the Saturday sample).
All of this leads me to conclude that the President is currently ahead by 4 or 5 percentage points.
For those who say turnout might be different this time, I agree. It might be different. One of our great challenges between now and Election Day is to figure out how much (if at all) the turnout will change from historic norms. Partisans from both sides seem convinced that there are special circumstance that will increase turnout for their team. Others speculate that their may be a smaller number of unaffiliated voters since events of the past four years have caused people to take sides.
Whatever the turnout differences may be, they will not be big enough to match the implications of the Time and Newsweek polls.
As always, it's useful to use common sense when reviewing poll data. If a poll suggests that 10 or 20 percent of Americans are changing their mind on a regular basis, it should be viewed with caution. Most of the time, you will find that the partisan mix of the polling sample is changing more than the actual perceptions of voters.
Yesterday, we released a brief assessment of the Bush Bounce. Based upon our 7-day Tracking data (less susceptible to one-day rogue samples), it appears that the President has gained more than five points over a three week period of time. Given the Swift Boat issue and the Republican National Convention, that seems to be a reasonable measure of the shift.
During the Republican Convention week, the President's numbers improved across the board. He took the lead in the 16-Battleground States, his Job Approval ratings went up to their highest levels in six months, and the number saying the country is moving in the right direction increased to its highest level of the year. |
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| policerobots |
who cares about the polls
bush will win anyways
kerry changes his opinion more often than i change my underwear everyday! |
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| AnotherWay83 |
| quote: | Originally posted by policerobots
who cares about the polls
bush will win anyways
kerry changes his opinion more often than i change my underwear everyday! |
oh please...you're just regurgitating the same propaganda republicans are bombarding us with... |
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| josh4 |
| quote: | Originally posted by policerobots
who cares about the polls
bush will win anyways
kerry changes his opinion more often than i change my underwear everyday! |
If Bush wins I'm going to riot. |
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| Cyrus King |
Sadly, i have a feeling Bush might win this election.
But you never know.. the US has gone through so much in the last four years..
Many many people are more annoyed with Bush than ever... we might see for the first time a whole new batch of "lazy" voters actually turn up at the ballots.
We really wont know what happens until novemeber |
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| speedracer_mec |
| quote: | Originally posted by Cyrus King
Sadly, i have a feeling Bush might win this election.
But you never know.. the US has gone through so much in the last four years..
Many many people are more annoyed with Bush than ever... we might see for the first time a whole new batch of "lazy" voters actually turn up at the ballots.
We really wont know what happens until novemeber |
I feel the opposite:(
Something tells me that Kerry is going to win this election even though Im hoping Bush would. |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by speedracer_mec
I feel the opposite:(
Something tells me that Kerry is going to win this election even though Im hoping Bush would. |
Just out of curiousity, why do you feel this way?
To be fair, I'll outline why I think Bush has a better than average chance to win ATM-
1. The Repubs. have their campaign strategy down tight. In all honesty, they know how to play the election campaign game better. Though the Dems. are catching on, they still lag behind.
It's not about reality, it's all about the sales pitch. The Repubs. are better salesmen at present.
2. Within their sales pitch, the Repubs. and Bush have played the protective "dad" role surprisingly well. During the Rep. Convention, Bush masterly crafted his speech and other speeches towards instilling fear within the citizens of the "big bad wolf". I certainly do not downplay this fear, and it certainly is justified, but the catch is this - citizens historically feel more comfortable with an incumbent President IF they have something great enough to fear. Bush knows this, and they played on this fear tactic very well (and will continue to do so).
3. The smear campaign by Rove and his buds have worked splendidly well, once again. This whole fiasco about Bush in the National Guard has come too little, too late, and will not receive near as much attention as Kerry in Vietnam. Despite my personal feelings on the merit of each candidate's background, I think the public has grown tired of this crud altogether. This works completely in Bush's favor, because they drew blood and attention on Kerry first. Bush's National Guard status, which SHOULD land him in a heap of trouble (both legally and politically), will likely only get at most a week's worth of playing time. Hardly the comparison to the 3 weeks or so of Kerry being smeared.
4. Bush is likely going to skip out on 1 debate, which will be in his favor. Everyone knows Bush has numerous speaking/speech issues, and open debates with his opponent, who is clearly a better speaker, will only exacerbate his communication weakness.
5. IF (and this is a big "if") the economy for the month of September picks up, or at least has a moderately better month than August, Bush will have yet another selling point. And this selling point is Kerry's strength. If the economy has a great September, the wind could fall right out of Kerry's sails completely. The October numbers will likely be in AFTER the Nov. 2nd vote, so October will likely not be in the picture (Occ, any idea here?).
6. He's going to continue to ignore the Iraq issue, UNLESS things drastically improve over the next month, which at current pace is doubtful. Although this is currently a favorable point to Bush, I think Kerry is selling the Iraqi War as a failure pretty well, esp. as an economic standpoint. By ignoring this, Bush is allowing the point to likely be a wash between him and Kerry.
7. Ignore the problems arising with Medicare. This is a serious weakness of Bush, even though he passed the Bill. I suspect Kerry will also nail him on this hard, esp. the fact that $400 million was suppressed from the final cost by the Administration. Most seniors do not favor this Bill, nor do they understand it very well. And finally, the 17% increase, the highest in 40 yrs. is truly not going to favor Bush at all. Bush's best bet is to briefly brush over the "good" parts of this (or embellish it, whichever you wish to look at it), and ignore the consequences. So far, he is doing exactly that.
8. People love tax cuts, even though they are arguably a long term detriment to our deficit and economy. For some reason, esp. here in the Midwest and Central region, people loooove the sound of tax cuts, and our local state legislatures will do anything to avoid raising taxes, even at the cost of education, medicaid, etc. A number of lobbying groups from Washington, including Koch's Citizens for a Sound Economy, have successfully lobbied here on no tax increases, and the people and legislatures here continue to bite on it. As strange as I think it is in the long term, the majority tend to continue favoring this point with Bush.
I think it will eventually bite him in the ass, however, much in the same way as it bit his dad's ass. It will likely be too late, however, as it will be deep into his second term.
So overall, I'd still tip the balance toward Bush (unfortunately). Much could change, however, but at the moment I personally see 4 more years. But Jesus, could he at least get rid of Cheney and Rumsfeld? That would personally make me feel a little better..... |
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| speedracer_mec |
Quit frankly
I feel outside events will lift Kerry into office.
Although I want/hope for Bush to win.
1)Michael Moore wants to release the DVD near election time..
It will brainwash more people/media attention (debateable and has been)
2)Iraq situation could worsen with militants knowing what is at stake. |
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