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the demographic challenge to the "Jewish" state
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| George Smiley |
I know this should go in the Israel-Palestine thread but any debate in there died many moons ago and this shouldn't decend into a flame war so I decided to put it in a new thread!
I don't have any sources for this but according to my Middle East lecturer, by the year 2025, the Arab population of Israel (proper) will be almost 50% (altho I did a quick scan on the net and found a few sources that said it would be 26%) It is now 17%.
If it is 50%, then that speaks for itself. Even if it is 26%, that is still crucial if they all vote the same way (they might not win but that bloc in the Knesset would be devestating for Israel)
Add this to the fact that as the EU expands, more and more Israelis get the right to EU passports (those who moved from Eastern Europe) and if the going gets tough, that gives them all a "get out clause" from Israel (plus the benefits of living in the EU may be greater than those of living in Israel) (currently 1/3 Israelis I think are eligable for EU passports, which also suggests that Israel is becoming a "European" country with the people that live there!!)
Israel has a number of options - they can start shaggin like mad! They can import 8 million Jews from Russia or they can ethnically cleanse the Arab Israelis (which unfortunately is quite popular amongst some sections of society) but it would be called transfering, not ethnic cleansing! There is not a hope in hells chance that the Israeli government would approve 'transfering' the Arabs and even if Russian Jews were absorbed it would only be a short-term fix cos eventually the Arabs would still catch up.
It was said that the way out would be to define an "Israeli" as someone who came from that particular geographic location and not neccessarily someone who was also Jewish. But that has implications for the "Jewish state" in that there wont be one!
Basically, whatever the solution is for this problem for Israel, the future of the "Jewish" state looks very bleak... |
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| Cyrus King |
this is practically a given
The israeli state is surrounded by 300 million arabs alone. It will never survive as a jewish state. Arabs will consume that area and all the zionists will be flushed out.
Poor israeli's ;) |
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| zig |
I hadnt considered this situation before as regards Israel, although the same situation applies to Northern Ireland, the catholics will eventually out number the protestants (and be able to call for a referendum on a united Ireland, as written into the current peace deal) if demographics continue the way they are going currently.
Anyway i found this article which is quite good and relevant....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/art...11/124803.shtml |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by zig
I hadnt considered this situation before as regards Israel, although the same situation applies to Northern Ireland, the catholics will eventually out number the protestants (and be able to call for a referendum on a united Ireland, as written into the current peace deal) if demographics continue the way they are going currently.
Anyway i found this article which is quite good and relevant....
http://www.newsmax.com/archives/art...11/124803.shtml |
Cheers for that excellent link zig (why the couldn't I find that?!)
I honestly dont think the Israelis realise this cos if I were Israeli I'd be kissin Arab arse big time!
How's this for a future solution...Israel annexes the West Bank and Gaza and gives all Arabs there equal political rights? That way they can still call the country Israel (ah what the hell! They can call it greater Israel!) it'd keep the settlers happy cos they could still live there (providing their council tax (see UK council tax) is in line with their mansions they all live in!) and presumably the Palestinians could not be oppressed any more. Also, they would technically have got all their land back (British Mandate Palestine) and could live wherever they want. Israel could scrounge loads of money off America for building nice homes for the refugees (or they will give American politicians bad names and nobody will vote for them!) which may make the Palestinians grateful and they can all be friends (like they used to be throughout history). Maybe a new name? "Greater Israel and Palestine"? The downside is, Israel cannot remain a Jewish state (and its touch and go as to whether Jews would be treated any better than the Palestinians have been) |
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| wolverine16 |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
How's this for a future solution...Israel annexes the West Bank and Gaza and gives all Arabs there equal political rights? That way they can still call the country Israel (ah what the hell! They can call it greater Israel!) it'd keep the settlers happy cos they could still live there (providing their council tax (see UK council tax) is in line with their mansions they all live in!) and presumably the Palestinians could not be oppressed any more. Also, they would technically have got all their land back (British Mandate Palestine) and could live wherever they want. Israel could scrounge loads of money off America for building nice homes for the refugees (or they will give American politicians bad names and nobody will vote for them!) which may make the Palestinians grateful and they can all be friends (like they used to be throughout history). Maybe a new name? "Greater Israel and Palestine"? The downside is, Israel cannot remain a Jewish state (and its touch and go as to whether Jews would be treated any better than the Palestinians have been) |
If only that could have been the way it went in the first place :) The problem though is it goes against the ideology of Zionism, so most Israelis would not desire this scenario, as they fear historical difficulties that have were encountered, particularly in France, Russia & of course the Holocaust. The Dreyfus Affair in France was a major factor in the creation of Zionism, as the Jewish people in France were made to feel like they could not belong to both the French & Jewish nations at the same time. While hostilities and bitterness from all that has gone on would certainly take decades, if not centuries, to heal, I think ultimately it would be very possible for people of different faiths to share that area without persecution. After the fall of the Soviet Bloc there was a great number of immigrants to Israel, so the demographics problem was somewhat downplayed, but ultimately you're correct that sometime soon the birthrate ratio is going to seriously alter the situation. |
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| Flotser |
1. your lecturer probably meant that in several years it is possible that the arabs will be 50% among the people living in:
Israel+Gaza+West Bank
inside israeli green line, like you said, arabs are about 20%
2. inside israeli green line, arab population growth is not much quicker than the jewish population, because:
- orthodox jews also make lots of childern
- israeli arabs are becoming more and more modernized , which also leads to smaller arab families
- soon i'll start shagin like crazy and changing the balance :p |
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| zig |
Another interesting one, this time from the American perspective....go down to paragraphs 9-10 and 11....a lot of it is waffle as its issued by the American Ambassador to Israel addressing the American Israel friendship delegation.
But i think it shows its definatly an issue currently in Israel.
http://www.usembassy-israel.org.il/...amb/022705.html |
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| George Smiley |
| quote: | Originally posted by Flotser
1. your lecturer probably meant that in several years it is possible that the arabs will be 50% among the people living in:
Israel+Gaza+West Bank
inside israeli green line, like you said, arabs are about 20%
2. inside israeli green line, arab population growth is not much quicker than the jewish population, because:
- orthodox jews also make lots of childern
- israeli arabs are becoming more and more modernized , which also leads to smaller arab families
- soon i'll start shagin like crazy and changing the balance :p |
Well according to Zig's last link, there already is a 50-50 split in Israel and the occupied territories, and according to his first link, between 2035 and 2048 there will be a majority Arab population in Israel proper. However, the exact dates are somewhat irrelevant. Sooner or later, this is an issue that Israel will have to face upto and it is going to happen... |
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| zig |
The more i look into this the more interesting it gets, now this is an eye opener, heres another 3 links, the first link explains a law the Israelis passed in 2003 for a trial period of one year and then renewed for a further 6 months, and now it appears the law will be renewed again, and to say the Israelis are worried about demographics i think is an understatement.
| quote: | | In its August 2003 edition, NGO Monitor analyzed the political campaigns of a number of human rights NGOs condemning the Israeli Knesset's adoption of an amendment to Israel's citizenship law. The purpose of the legislation, which was passed for a one-year trial period, and renewed for 6 months in July 2004, is to control the inflow of Palestinians seeking Israeli citizenship. As noted, this issue arose against the background of the decades long ethno-national conflict and the extreme violence of the past three years. In the past decade (since the beginning of the Oslo process), 200,000 Palestinians have received citizenship under family unification provisions. This constitutes an increase of approximately 20% in the Arab population of Israel in this period, and a major change in the politically and culturally sensitive population balance. |
http://www.hanitzotz.com/challenge/82/citizenship.htm
http://www.ngo-monitor.org/editions/v2n12/v2n12-3.htm
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL0504/S00100.htm |
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| ogvh5150 |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
I know this should go in the Israel-Palestine thread but any debate in there died many moons ago and this shouldn't decend into a flame war so I decided to put it in a new thread! |
Don't apologize. I thought the thread merger was senseless and without merit. It should have been polled before mass confusion was the norm of that thread. |
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| shaolin_Z |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
Israel has a number of options - they can start shaggin like mad! They can import 8 million Jews from Russia or they can ethnically cleanse the Arab Israelis |
Isreal is welaware of the demographics of the situation which is why the situation is the way it is. Unfortunately, Isreal is choosing the latter to approach this.
I did a google search for the definition of enthnic cleansing not cuase I don't know what the term means but just to make a point.
| quote: | Definitions of ethnic cleansing on the Web:
* A term that gained prominence in the 1990s to describe military conflict that targeted particular groups because of their ethnic make-up for elimination or displacement.
homepages.uc.edu/~collicn/lenses/glossary.htm
* Sometimes used as a euphemism for genocide. Some people distinguish it from genocide, however, by saying that ethnic cleansing does not necessarily mean killing groups of people, but can include the use of coercive methods for driving people out of a territory, including rape and the destruction of homes and villages.
www.icons.umd.edu/resource/glossary.htm
* is the systematic removal of a group of people identified by ethnicity from a certain area. This may be done through genocide (killing) or forced migration.
www.curriculumsupport.nsw.edu.au/hs...es/glossary.htm
* forcibly displacing or exterminating an ethnic population from a particular area in order to assert the identity and power of another ethnic group.
www.redcross.ca/main.asp
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| Yoepus |
| quote: | Originally posted by George Smiley
Basically, whatever the solution is for this problem for Israel, the future of the "Jewish" state looks very bleak... |
Its always looked bleak for Jews. Its just one scenario after another.
We're used to it.
The problem is quiet hypothetical. Population forecast, like most any forecast are for the majority inaccurate.
Deal with the problem when it happens. I don't think it will for these reasons:
Israeli Arabs nearly the same birth rates as the Jews, the more modern and wealthy they get, the less children they have and as Floster pointed out, our orthodox Jews (forbidden to use contraceptive and ordered by tradition to have sex constantly with the wife) are quiet rabbit like.
Next, the Palestinian infastructure can simply not maintain more people. If more children are born, more children will die. Their houses are , their hospitals are s, and they don't have any jobs or an economy.
Once a peace is signed i believe Palestine will be able to modernize thus reducing birth rates. If it doesn't modernize, it will simply be unable to maintain its population count. So basically whatever outcome, they'll breed less.
Anyway, I don't think this is a burning issue really. No one is rushing off, anything could happen. |
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