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shît happens, or Why the Cleveland Indians will win the AL Wild Card
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| tribu |
As I type this, the Cleveland Indians are 8 games above .500, 13 back of the steamrolling Chicago White Sox and 4.5 games back of the California (yes, I know) Angels and Oakland Athletics in the Wild Card chase. However, I'm going to go out a limb and predict that the Indians will make the playoffs as the wild card team this year.
Hitting
Cleveland's ability to hit, score runs, and generally play offense has been costly, especially for those who remember the days of the great teams of the late 90s. However, after early struggles, the Indians are 4th in the AL in hits(233) and third(.283) in batting percentage since the break. More base runners means more runs, which means more support for their
Pitching
Cleveland has the 4th best team ERA in the AL and the ninth in the majors. They have the third best Strikeout to Walk ratio in the bigs and opponents are only hitting .249 against Sabathia, Westbrook, Lee, Elarton, and Davis. Their bullpen has been doing the job and Bob Wickman trails only Chad Cordero of the Nationals in saves. However, the staf couldn't get wins before the break because they werent getting run support. Kevin Millwood has the 4th best ERA in the AL, but is 5-9. Each starting pitcher(combining all the pitchers the Indian's have featured in their 5th spot as one) have lost at least 3 1-run games this year. But with the Indians hitting well, if the pitching can maintain its level of consistancy, one only needs to consult
X-Factors
Of their remaining game left, Cleveland plays 25 against Tampa Bay, Detroit, or Kansas City. A three game set with Oakland at Jacob's Field (Sept 12-14) could be a deciding factor for the team. Cleveland has no games left against Boston, California, or New York. The only teams with better road records are Chicago and St. Louis; 20 of Cleveland's remaining games are on the road.
Most likely, Cleveland will crumble like they did last year and this thread will become a joke :) But I thought I would make an argument for a team with a legitimate shot... |
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| jonze234 |
baseball prospectus has given the indians a 34% chance of winning the wild card. their slow start really killed them.
Link |
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| tribu |
| quote: | Originally posted by jonze234
baseball prospectus has given the indians a 34% chance of winning the wild card. their slow start really killed them.
Link |
The Indians 34% chance of winning the Wild Card is the best in the AL. It's also better than the Angels' chance of winning the AL West. Cleveland's chance of making the playoff is 4th to the three division leaders and the Angels, who are barely above .500 since the break.
The slow start hurt their chances to keep pace with the White Sox, but the Indians certainly have a chance to win the Wild Card. |
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| Vyper0987 |
that's great if they win the wildcard...won't get anywhere though. here's their record according to their site (i didn't think i missed any series) against the following teams:
Yanks - 3-4
Red Sox - 2-4
Chi Sox - 3-10
Angels - 3-5
A's - 4-2
They're 15-25 against the top teams in the AL. it'd be an awesome story...just don't wanna see their hopes get up and wind up getting their asses handed to them :( |
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| Acid Circus |
| Just look at the NL West odds of making a wildcard, slim and none. I'm liking the Cards odds, and the Cubs odds also makes for good reading! |
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| Vyper0987 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Acid Circus
Just look at the NL West odds of making a wildcard, slim and none. I'm liking the Cards odds, and the Cubs odds also makes for good reading! |
uh hum....right now...the brewers are better than the cubs.
let me repeat that....the brewers are better than the cubs. |
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| jonze234 |
| quote: | Originally posted by tribu
The Indians 34% chance of winning the Wild Card is the best in the AL. It's also better than the Angels' chance of winning the AL West. Cleveland's chance of making the playoff is 4th to the three division leaders and the Angels, who are barely above .500 since the break.
The slow start hurt their chances to keep pace with the White Sox, but the Indians certainly have a chance to win the Wild Card. |
the sox helped them off to that slow start :p |
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| Acid Circus |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vyper0987
uh hum....right now...the brewers are better than the cubs.
let me repeat that....the brewers are better than the cubs. |
And that is a good thing my friend :) |
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| tribu |
| quote: | Originally posted by jonze234
the sox helped them off to that slow start :p |
They've got a home and away series left against the sox and with a couple of well placed sweeps, could finish .500 against them for the year :)
I agree they probably wouldn't win a playoff series, but alot of crazier has happened... |
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| jonze234 |
| quote: | Originally posted by tribu
I agree they probably wouldn't win a playoff series, but alot of crazier has happened... |
like the red sox coming back against the yanks. the wild card teams have done pretty good in the playoffs lately, so as long as your team gets in there's no telling what could happen. |
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| LeopoldStotch |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vyper0987
uh hum....right now...the brewers are better than the cubs.
let me repeat that....the brewers are better than the cubs. |
off topic ... im still holding ground, and say that the brewers will make the playoffs this year .. i said before they will catch up to the cardinals, but that probably is not believable, since the cardinals will never have any type of 10 game losing streak slide .. :rolleyes: .. but the brewers will earn a wild card spot .. over all the nl east powerhouses and the weak nl west teams ..
back to topic, i like the way the indians are handling themselves right now through the thick of things, but i still see the angels winning the spot, and the yankees outta here! .. the yanks wont catch up to the red sox. |
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| Vyper0987 |
| quote: | Originally posted by LeopoldStotch
off topic ... im still holding ground, and say that the brewers will make the playoffs this year .. i said before they will catch up to the cardinals, but that probably is not believable, since the cardinals will never have any type of 10 game losing streak slide .. :rolleyes: .. but the brewers will earn a wild card spot .. over all the nl east powerhouses and the weak nl west teams ..
back to topic, i like the way the indians are handling themselves right now through the thick of things, but i still see the angels winning the spot, and the yankees outta here! .. the yanks wont catch up to the red sox. |
i'd like to see them in the playoffs...they are my team...but i just don't see it happening. their bullpen is overworked and their offense is streaky. Plus, they have these teams to look forward to:
STL (again), Astros(3 more times), Cubs, Florida, Atlanta, and San Diego.
Granted, a lot of them are at home, they still have to win 2/3 of these games to stand a chance. Give them a year or two more and another couple of pitchers. |
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