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Investing in the Stock Market (pg. 5)
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| metalgearsolid |
| OMG we are taking a step backwards. How do you expect a 19yr old to buy property when he can't even afford to live on his own? He still lives with his parents he doesn't have a high paying job. You at leat need over 75k to put as down payment. Than the mortgage will be maybe over 2000. No, property is no good when you are young and don't have any money to buy a house and let alone take care of it. Also Americans are immature they never want to pay rent. So its a hassel all the time. Don't buy real estate until the prices go down in like two to three years. pckraistlin its like a stock you don't want to buy high and than watch it go down in value due to the real estate boom slows down and BAM! everything goes down hill. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
well, i dunno. i am not on anywhere near a good salary. quite the opposite. and the bank were happy to give me money. sure, you need to have saved a little, but not that much more than youre talking about on stocks. you certainly dont need $75K to put as down payment ;) who have you been listening to? i contributed about $7000 (AU) to get my loan. thats really not that much...
again tho, im not savvy on the american market at all. but america is fvcking huge- property is booming somewhere over there i guarantee ;) |
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| metalgearsolid |
| Yeah America is different. Where I am prices are real high and you need a lot of money to buy and keep. Also the bank charges you a high interest rate so it really sucks. I am looking to buy some properties that will cost me 931 a month on mortgage and I have a feeling like in twenty years those properties will be worth a lot of money. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by kush paintings
Im thinking of starting a portfolio soon with a time frame of 2 years. I've got some stocks in mind let me know what you guys think (for those who know their )
GLD- STREETTRACKS GOLD
SBX- STARBUCKS
AAPL- APPLE
XLE- ENERGY AND NATURAL GAS ETF
BHP- BHP BILLTON |
I'm not saying my opinion is right or that I know all there is to know about markets, but my personal opinions are:
GLD: Gold has been in full on bull mode and is a great hedge against risk. Given the various global, economic, financial, cultural, political, etc. risks in today's world, this is probably a good holding for any portfolio. NEM is a pure-play gold producer that is largely unhedged and hasn't participated as fully with the gold rally, so it could be an attractive option, but there's nothing wrong with a gold ETF in your portfolio. Remember, the goal is not to pick stocks that will only all go up all the time (that's just a pipe dream), rather to build a balanced portfolio that will perform well overall in various market environments.
SBUX: I always think of dotcoms when I see SBUX, but it is really nothing of the sort. It is the McDonalds of coffee with huge global expansion potential. I don't have a strong opinion on the stock and it has certainly had a great run, though it doesn't appear to be out of steam yet.
AAPL: Probably late to be getting on board given that you've missed so much of the upside, but the latest announcement about Boot Camp and being able to run Windows XP on a Mac could really help them gain back some market share in the CPU market which could give another leg of upside. However, I think the story is definitely getting long in the tooth at this point. Still a great story though.
XLE: I actually owned this ETF for about a long time. I bought at $29 and sold out around $50. In retrospect I should've held on to it a bit longer. It's no secret that there are big secular forces in place to drive the need for energy on both the supply and demand side. On the supply side, we have issues of Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, etc., which has caused major supply concerns and hence is partly responsible for the huge runup in crude prices. Also, given that Katrina is still a pretty fresh memory, with summer (and the summer driving season) coming up, there is likely additional upward pressure on prices due to supply concerns. On the demand side, you have major industrialization going on in China and India which has major potential to drive energy demand. In short, I think there is a great long-term play on energy, but I don't know the best way to play it. I like oil services plays, specifically deep-water drilling. I recently bought back into the group, but I bought PXJ which is another oil service ETF (with a lower price point so I could get more shares for my buck) and seems more exposed to drillers and E&P type names. I think XLE probably still works for a patient investor.
BHP: Don't really know it, but it's a resource play so it probably does well as long as the commodity bull market continues and Brazil/Russia/India/China continue to be intensely resource focused economies.
It's not that easy to make good, steady returns in the stock market (particularly in the current environment!). In the end I think it's important that a person serious about investing their own money do their homework before throwing money into the market. There are too many people out there spouting bull for a person to not do a good bit of work on their own. I read an interesting stat lately that the average person spends vastly more time researching what kind of car they plan to buy than they actually spend finding out what a piece of crap GM stock is...or something like that. |
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| kush paintings |
| Well that doesnt suprise me at all, but I think both you and metal are right, I have too many stocks in mind that are probably overvalued at the moment. I think, Josh, you brought up a good point as far as investing in a company that has flown under the radar in a hot sector. I definently want stocks in metals, energy, and oil, but like you said, I don't know the best plays in those sectors. If someone does, and would care to take the time to explain so, it'd be much appreciated. |
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| metalgearsolid |
| Damn, this week isn't over and I have lost too much money. My worth is 3744. I lost too much money today I only had one winner. VDSI and the rest were losers. SMXC is really killing me but I don't want to sell it. |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by metalgearsolid
Damn, this week isn't over and I have lost too much money. My worth is 3744. I lost too much money today I only had one winner. VDSI and the rest were losers. SMXC is really killing me but I don't want to sell it. |
You could've owned Aetna or Express Scripts! |
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| metalgearsolid |
Symbol
Current
Price Change
$ %
Day's
Gain Qty Price Paid Total Gain
$ %
Market Val Edit
CDE Buy / Sell 6.98 0.37 5.60% $37.00 100 $6.93 -$7.99 -1.13% $698.00 Edit
COLT Buy / Sell 5.05 0.01 0.20% $1.00 100 $5.0399 -$11.98 -2.32% $505.00 Edit
ETQ Buy / Sell 6.62 0.12 1.85% $12.00 100 $6.59 -$9.99 -1.49% $662.00 Edit
FRG Buy / Sell 6.35 0.36 6.01% $36.00 100 $6.70 -$47.99 -7.03% $635.00 Edit
JAX Buy / Sell 8.45 0.19 2.30% $0.95 5 $8.25 -$11.99 -22.11% $42.25 Edit
SMXC Buy / Sell 9.71 0.15 1.57% $6.00 40 $10.37 -$39.39 -9.21% $388.40 Edit
VDSI Buy / Sell 9.36 0.36 4.00% $36.00 100 $9.1999 $3.02 0.32% $936.00 Edit
Cash 7.04 $7.04
Totals $128.95 $4,000.00 -$126.31 -3.16% $3,873.69
I know thats hard to read but you see my net worth is 3,873.69 Today I had 128.95 today but in order to start making money i need to get passed 126.31. I hope by 2-3wks I will start earning money.
Hey Shakka is etrade to expensive? Which discount broker do you think I should have chosen? |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by metalgearsolid
Hey Shakka is etrade to expensive? Which discount broker do you think I should have chosen? |
In all honesty, online trading is pretty much a commoditized business at this point. They're all pretty cheap on a per transaction basis. I know a lot of people use TD Waterhouse and are fine with it. Most places will even give you a certain number of free trades when you open an account which is nice if you have less net worth and don't want to see your returns gobbled up by commissions.
At work I have to use a Schwab account which is about $19.95 per trade (A huge ripoff in my opinion), but I am bound by compliance rules since I'm in the biz.
Even better are institutional desks that give you a per share rate. We usually pay abou 4c/share which is next to nothing for small investors, but is really meant for larger institutions and actually generates much higher commissions on large trades (10's-100's of thousands of shares).
But yea, I'm sure eTrade is fine. |
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| metalgearsolid |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
In all honesty, online trading is pretty much a commoditized business at this point. They're all pretty cheap on a per transaction basis. I know a lot of people use TD Waterhouse and are fine with it. Most places will even give you a certain number of free trades when you open an account which is nice if you have less net worth and don't want to see your returns gobbled up by commissions.
At work I have to use a Schwab account which is about $19.95 per trade (A huge ripoff in my opinion), but I am bound by compliance rules since I'm in the biz.
Even better are institutional desks that give you a per share rate. We usually pay abou 4c/share which is next to nothing for small investors, but is really meant for larger institutions and actually generates much higher commissions on large trades (10's-100's of thousands of shares).
But yea, I'm sure eTrade is fine. |
Ok-thank you now what do you think about my stocks? |
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| Shakka |
| quote: | Originally posted by metalgearsolid
Ok-thank you now what do you think about my stocks? |
I dunno. I'll have to take a look sometime this week. I was out of town all weekend and just got back home and am now playing catch up.
In any event, I think people should do their own research and not rely on the opinions of others to make their decisions.;) I just finished reading a great book on the plane ride home called "Beating the Business Cycle" which I think is a good read for any would-be investor.
I'll try to get back to you in due time. |
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| Shakka |
Disclaimer: None of this is actual investment advice, just my personal thoughts. I am just as likely to be wrong as plenty of other people. Always do your own research and do what you feel most comfortable with. It is YOUR money, invest it wisely! My personal investments are restricted to ETFs, mutual funds and government bonds. Due to compliance issues I can't invest in specific stocks or corporate bonds.
| quote: | Originally posted by metalgearsolid
CDE
COLT
ETQ
FRG
SMXC
VDSI
Cash 7.04 |
CDE - Never a bad idea to have some gold exposure, imo. Especially with the dollar starting to decline in earnest again. I don't really follow a lot of gold names specifically, but NEM is the big one that a lot of people buy and they don't do as much hedging as a lot of others so their stock price tends to track the actual commodity price more closely. That said, Neither NEM nor CDE have had the explosive rallies that physcial gold has had lately. Maybe that means they'll play catch up, maybe it means something else is going on. In any event, you could diversify your gold position by simply buying the gold ETF (GLD). It definitely tracks the commodity more closely, so if that's what you're after, the ETF makes sense. All that said, gold has certainly spiked up recently--for good reason--but that could make it dangerous up here.
COLT - Some of these smaller-cap telecom related names have never been my specialty. It's a highly regulated industry that's going through a lot of change. I personally like the wireless side vs. the old wireline stuff as it's less regulated and has better growth potential. However it can be quite volatile as spending can be lumpy, and regulations can still cause hiccups. Fundamentally, I really don't know COLT that well so I can't really say one way or another on this one. You might also consider something like Verizon (VZ) which has both wireline and a growing wireless business. They are also involved in buildout of fiber-to-the-premise which, while costing them now, should hopefully pay dividends in the future. And speaking of dividends, the stock pays a nice yield of around 5% which isn't too shabby.
ETQ - I don't know this one, but copper prices continue to defy gravity. Given industrialization in emerging markets it's fine to have commodity exposure, though be wary of the potential impact any global slowdown could have as well as central banks around the world are getting into tightening mode (US, PBoC, Japan, UK). I have never heard of this company specifically though, so I can't speak to it's specific fundamentals. You never know with some of these companies that have mines in 2nd/3rd world countries what could happen. Chavez could nationalize oil, The new Bolivian pres could do something, there could be battles and conflicts with tribal factions. Just risks to be wary of. Like I said, I know nothing about this particular company.
FRG - Another commodity/resource company that I'm not specifically familliar with, but see my reasonings above. A rising tide tends to lift all boats. Some specific favorites of mine in this space might be TIE (A titanium play with exposure to aerospace/defense), or CCJ (A uranium play).
SMXC - Looks like it has performed well. It's a transport name that I don't know well (You seem to dabble more in micro-cap names that aren't really followed by any research firms--which isn't necessarily a bad thing, though it means you have to really make sure to do solid research since there is little other information out there for you). I don't know how they hedge their fuel costs, but that would probably be the primary risk. In a solid economy, I'd think they would perform just fine, but again, you seem to be in names that aren't heavily followed.
VDSI - Beats the hell out of me. Internet security--are they a potential takeout candidate in your opinion?
Cash - You have a tiny cash position, which is fine if you want to be fully invested. Depending on your view of the economy, you may want to increase/decrease your cash weigting depending on how defensive you want to be.
Sounds like your portfolio is most heavily weighted towards commodities/resources/minerals. If you want to diversify, you might also consider some non/less cyclical industries like healthcare or education or something along those lines. Or you could seek shelter in some short-term T-bills which have a decent yield and will generate income for you so that you're overall returns aren't completely driven by capital gains which may or may not ever materialize.
Hope that helps--just my 2 cents.;) |
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