Originally posted by gallantrybot
You mean comparing the US dollar to other currencies (as in exchange rates?)
If you haven't noticed, everything is down right now so that's like comparing the air pressure in two flat tires.
I definitely wouldn't call being nearly 100% right about this market disconnected. I would call it having done an overabundance of due diligence, though. :)
I'd rather have the tire that's partially inflated vs. the completely flat one that is most other currencies.
And everyone's right about the market at some point. I mean, I can say that the market will go up, and eventually it will, so I'll be right. It gets especially easy when you've witnessed a huge trend because it'll eventually end. I've watched Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers make comments that were bullish on commodities that have been completely off the mark in the past 6 months. Schiff's also been wrong on currencies, on the value of the dollar, inflation, etc. Do I think inflation will occur? Sure, at some point, but if I'd have bought commodities to guard against it 6 months ago, I'd have been slaughtered.
gallantrybot
quote:
Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
yeah, a friend sent that to me in an email and i didn't bother to check it :( disappointing, coz marx is the man!
We all have our own opinions.
I just think it's funny that his theories have never successfully worked in the real world and yet he still has so many followers or adherents.
pkcRAISTLIN
quote:
Originally posted by gallantrybot
We all have our own opinions.
I just think it's funny that his theories have never successfully worked in the real world and yet he still has so many followers or adherents.
i know of hardly any marxists. Just because his solutions are fanciful doesn't mean his analyses aren't of use. Not to mention his huge influence on sociology.
Capitalizt
Marx should be required for study solely based on the amount of damage he has done to the world.
gallantrybot
quote:
Originally posted by Groundhog Boy
I'd rather have the tire that's partially inflated vs. the completely flat one that is most other currencies.
And everyone's right about the market at some point. I mean, I can say that the market will go up, and eventually it will, so I'll be right. It gets especially easy when you've witnessed a huge trend because it'll eventually end. I've watched Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers make comments that were bullish on commodities that have been completely off the mark in the past 6 months. Schiff's also been wrong on currencies, on the value of the dollar, inflation, etc. Do I think inflation will occur? Sure, at some point, but if I'd have bought commodities to guard against it 6 months ago, I'd have been slaughtered.
You're right, but he vehemently called it and gave numerous reasons why the bubble was going to burst. I thought it was a no brainer at the time but for some reason few people wanted to listen.
Historically speaking, though, gold is one of the few things that's retained it's intrinsic value and that's simply for the fact that it doesn't degrade over time, it can't be copied or counterfeited (or printed up in a press), there's only a finite amount of it, and it can easily be measured for weight and purity.
I'd be willing to bet my left testicle that we're going to see major inflation but I do know that it takes some time. The distributionary effect of inflation is something which Richard Cantillon first propounded upon and today it's aptly called the "Cantillon effects" in memory of him.
As much as you guys like to rag on Ron Paul for following the Austrian School of Economics, he sure does seem to know his history.
From his book:
quote:
"All right, some may say, prices may indeed rise, but so do wages and salaries, and therefore inflation causes no real problems on net. This misconception overlooks one of the most insidious and immoral effects of inflation: its redistribution of wealth from the poor and middle class to the politically well connected. The price increases that take place as a result of inflation do not occur all at once and to the same degree. Those who receive the new money first receive it before the prices have yet risen. They enjoy a windfall. Meanwhile, as they spend the new money, and the next wave of recipients spend it, and so on, prices begin to rise throughout the economy—well before the new money has trickled down to most people. The average person is now paying higher prices while still earning his old income, which has not yet been adjusted to account for the higher money supply. By the time the new money has made its way throughout the economy, average people have all this time been paying higher prices, and only now can begin to break even. The enrichment of the politically well connected—In other words those who get the newly created money first: government contractors, big banks and the like—comes at the direct expense of everyone else. These are known as the distribution effects, or Cantillon effects, of inflation, after economist Richard Cantillon. The average person is silently robbed through this invisible means and usually doesn’t’ understand what exactly is happening to him. And almost no one in the political establishment has an incentive to tell him."
"When the value of Americans’ savings is deliberately eroded through inflation, which is a tax, albeit a hidden one. I call it the inflation tax, a tax that is all the more insidious for being so underhanded: most Americans have no idea what causes it or why their standard of living is going down. Meanwhile, government and its favored constituencies receive their ill-gotten loot. The racket is safe as long as no one figures out what is going on."
The fact that we're printing (or at least adding) trillions upon trillions of dollars to the current pool of money is going to bite us in the asses. It doesn't matter whether we can feel it's effects right now or not, IT IS INFLATION and it is going to come back to us with dire consequences.
gallantrybot
quote:
Originally posted by Capitalizt
Marx should be required for study solely based on the amount of damage he has done to the world.
I actually considered reading Hitler's Mein Kampf for that very same reason but quickly thought better of it.
pkcRAISTLIN
quote:
Originally posted by gallantrybot
Historically speaking, though, gold is one of the few things that's retained it's intrinsic value
lol. gold has no intrinsic value. its value is determined by what someone is willing to pay for it. it follows supply-demand rules like any other commodity.
the gold standard has a recessionary bias, was instrumental in the perpetuation of the great depression, and has absolutely NO support by modern economists, outside the austrian school (but they're not real economists anyway so who cares?)
quote:
Originally posted by gallantrybot
I just think it's funny that his theories have never successfully worked in the real world and yet he still has so many followers or adherents.
yet you're still following the gold standard which was tried and failed. why is that? :conf:
Groundhog Boy
quote:
Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
lol. gold has no intrinsic value.
THANK YOU!!!
It's one of the last commodities that I'd want to realistically invest in.
What will fail if gold prices decline? Its only basis is in historical value when people liked pretty, shiny things. At this point in time, I'd be more inclined to invest in storable energy sources, like oil, but it takes up too much space compared with an equivalent value of gold.
Krypton
In a complete apocolyptic collapse of economy/society, gold is useless. Food, water, shelter, and energy is what would be demanded.
gallantrybot
quote:
Originally posted by Krypton
In a complete apocolyptic collapse of economy/society, gold is useless. Food, water, shelter, and energy is what would be demanded.
As a store of wealth gold and silver still reigns supreme but yes I do agree, however, that basic necessities are what will matter the most immediately following a collapse.
I had some Russian guy send me this video on YouTube a couple of months back which he made after his experience in the early 1990's. It's pretty well done and he even drew charts showing what percentages of all assets (from cash to consumer goods) to keep for different scenarios.
Man, these debates have worn me out over the past few days.. I'm just going to post one final thing for all my economic aficionados in PDD before I let trancer take over for a while. ;)
I read this book in college back in 2000 and just found it FREE online from scribd. It's a fantastic resource with plenty of "meat and potatoes" to sink your teeth into if you want to learn about the great depression and the decade preceding it. There are no esoteric terms or crazy formulas...just hard historical data and trenchant analysis on the subject. Try to stick with it..It's a surprisingly easy read despite the length.
