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Real Estate the cut throat industry (pg. 5)
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Whoa whoa whoa, you're talking about a lot of different economic principles in one fell swoop here.
First of all, rising prices in oil are not linked to inflation, or anything else the Fed controls, for that matter. Look to OPEC for that. An added tax on oil revenue would actually lower the cost of a barrel of oil and stick it to OPEC, as I posted in PDD awhile back (and I'm sure nobody took the time to read).
And currency exchanges and inflation, if I understand correctly, are not necessarily a direct correlation. That's why you saw inflation drop considerably over most of 2007 and the dollar still lose relative worth compared to the Euro and the Canadian dollar. I'm not an economist, but from what I do understand of International Finance Theory, I'm pretty sure the correlation there is false. |
The Fed itself has stated inflation is a concern, and probably won't be lowering interest rates again because of it. The Fed has injected several 10's of billions of dollars into the economy. That's EXTRA cash. Inflation has undoubtably gone up. It's been in the news. $100 a barrel oil is UNPRECEDENTED. And many economists are saying the rise in inflation has helped to push that spot price, I'm not saying it's the reason. Niether for gold. I am saying it's one major reason out of several.
As for currency exchanges, countries are definatly letting go of some of their dollar holdings. SOMETHING is driving the dollar down. I just think it's inflation.
Then again, when looking at these trends, it's like predicting the weather. It can be done many many ways. This is just how I see it. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
My "crusade" is simply I think the Fed benefits international banks more than it benefits the average consumer. Sure, it serves a function for the economy as a whole, I just think that the banks take precedent over EVERYTHING and I think that's wrong. |
The role of the Fed is to keep inflation below the rate of growth, which benefits the consumers. I guess banks would benefit as a side to that, since when people have more money they're more likely to invest (something that the US actually does far too little of compared to most countries, which actually goes against your theory of the US being dominated by banking interests). We're a consumer society for a reason - our economy is dominated by consumption, not investment. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
The Fed itself has stated inflation is a concern, and probably won't be lowering interest rates again because of it. The Fed has injected several 10's of billions of dollars into the economy. That's EXTRA cash. Inflation has undoubtably gone up. It's been in the news. $100 a barrel oil is UNPRECEDENTED. And many economists are saying the rise in inflation has helped to push that spot price, I'm not saying it's the reason. |
who are these economists? i would like to know why rates in the US have such an effect on the price people (ie the rest of world) are willing to pay for oil?
invading iraq had far more effect on oil prices than ANYTHING the fed could do. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
The Fed itself has stated inflation is a concern, and probably won't be lowering interest rates again because of it. The Fed has injected several 10's of billions of dollars into the economy. That's EXTRA cash. Inflation has undoubtably gone up. It's been in the news. $100 a barrel oil is UNPRECEDENTED. And many economists are saying the rise in inflation has helped to push that spot price, I'm not saying it's the reason. Niether for gold. I am saying it's one major reason out of several.
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Inflation has gone up the past few months. But we're still below the rates we saw just 9 months ago. At best, inflation would account for a 1% increase in oil prices, since that's about how much inflation has increased by in the last three months. So again, I think you are ignoring far more crucial factors (aka the War in Iraq, trouble in Nigeria that restricts supplies there, and price-gouging by OPEC) in order to fit your CT about the Federal Reserve. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
the price of crude oil has nothing to do with natural inflation; its just how commodities work. the (global) price of oil has nothing to do with the (moderate) level of inflation in the US. |
Actually, when a currency such as the dollar is falling value, something has to have to caused this. Now barring inflation as a cause, a less valuable currency essentially means commodities priced in that denomination now cost more to buy. That is INFLATIONARY. My dollar today becomes $1.05 for example. Therefore a barrel of oil today at $20 now costs $21. That's just an example, but I believe it's playing a major role in the high oil prices, in addition to the geopolitical risks that some call the "risk premium"..
| quote: | | yeah, i still havent seen one concrete piece of evidence against the use of a centralised bank, but plenty of reasons to support one. |
I've never advocated the abolition of a central banking authority. SO you're talking to wrong guy...;) |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Actually, when a currency such as the dollar is falling value, something has to have to caused this. |
You're right, but it's not inflation. See my above post.
| quote: |
I've never advocated the abolition of a central banking authority. SO you're talking to wrong guy...;) |
You have a link in your sig about how the Fed is a secretive criminal organization but you don't want it abolished? Now I'm confused. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
who are these economists? i would like to know why rates in the US have such an effect on the price people (ie the rest of world) are willing to pay for oil?
invading iraq had far more effect on oil prices than ANYTHING the fed could do. |
This is just one, I can find more articles if you like..:D
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/7101335.stm
| quote: | Dollar issue
Opec leaders have commented that an increase in oil production would do little to lower prices, as they blame the higher cost of oil on the weak dollar, the currency in which crude is priced.
The weaker dollar has been driving up oil prices as investors have been using the commodity as an alternative to holding dollars.
Oil prices have risen by 60% this year and some analysts say that $100-a-barrel oil is inevitable.
Adjusting for inflation, US light crude's record peak of $101.70 came in 1980 against a backdrop of war between Iraq and Iran.
Earlier, disagreements about whether to continue pricing oil in dollars surfaced at the Opec meeting when private discussions were accidentally broadcast live.
Venezuela and Iran, in particular, argued for a change in policy. |
| quote: | | You have a link in your sig about how the Fed is a secretive criminal organization but you don't want it abolished? Now I'm confused. |
Perhaps currupt in the sense of the interest that they really serve. That banking interests override concern for the consumer interest. But I have never advocated a total dissolution of the central banking authority. I just want a restructuring. |
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| Lilith |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
As for currency exchanges, countries are definatly letting go of some of their dollar holdings. SOMETHING is driving the dollar down. I just think it's inflation. |
It's a whole heap of things if you'd been paying attention-
Consumer confidence is down due to cheap imports over domestic product
Investor confidence is 'battered' as the US can't seem to manage it's own financial securities worth a damn, we don't buy a security, which isn't secure.
Wars, several of which in the last 10 years have been proven to be nothing more than a waste of money, poorly managed outsourcing and futile waste of life.
Euro is performing better under the union, for all its warts and proving to be a more stable currency which is used by a large amount of countries, many of which have formidable economies on their own.
Massive US investment in China, which suppressed its own economy in order to take on more US dollars.
Subcontinent and Asia bouncing back after the 90's bust and quite fond of looking to the non-american standards of commerce with other partners like the europeans.
Immense amounts of investment in the middle east and correspondingly, middle east investment in the US, one of which is extremely unstable area and prone to fighting, either the US or each other at any given day ending in Y.
OPEC rumblings again, since 2000 there has been a heavy push to discard the falling dollar by a number of members in favour of the Euro.
And here we are, all in tears about how your loan is starting to bite.
Well that's personally terrible I must say, however it doesn't change the fact that the federal reserve is a reactive entity, it only changes tack when something happens.
If nothing happens, it doesn't change. |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lilith
It's a whole heap of things if you'd been paying attention-
Consumer confidence is down due to cheap imports over domestic product
Investor confidence is 'battered' as the US can't seem to manage it's own financial securities worth a damn, we don't buy a security, which isn't secure.
Wars, several of which in the last 10 years have been proven to be nothing more than a waste of money, poorly managed outsourcing and futile waste of life.
Euro is performing better under the union, for all its warts and proving to be a more stable currency which is used by a large amount of countries, many of which have formidable economies on their own.
Massive US investment in China, which suppressed its own economy in order to take on more US dollars.
Subcontinent and Asia bouncing back after the 90's bust and quite fond of looking to the non-american standards of commerce with other partners like the europeans.
Immense amounts of investment in the middle east and correspondingly, middle east investment in the US, one of which is extremely unstable area and prone to fighting, either the US or each other at any given day ending in Y.
OPEC rumblings again, since 2000 there has been a heavy push to discard the falling dollar by a number of members in favour of the Euro.
And here we are, all in tears about how your loan is starting to bite.
Well that's personally terrible I must say, however it doesn't change the fact that the federal reserve is a reactive entity, it only changes tack when something happens.
If nothing happens, it doesn't change. |
Trust me, I've been paying a WHOLE lot of attention..
I have my views, and you guys may disagree, but I have fun reading what you have to say about what's up with the economy.. |
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| Lilith |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Trust me, |
Never, nothing personal you understand but it's not something given.
| quote: | | I've been paying a WHOLE lot of attention.. |
But not a lot of action I guess.
| quote: | | I have my views, and you guys may disagree |
Not on all your points.
| quote: | | but I have fun reading what you have to say about what's up with the economy.. |
Any vested interests and hard money I took out of the US economy for a lot of reasons and a couple I jotted down in the 3 minutes it took to type that, it's easy to be dismissive of me and frankly I don't care to either brag or make much of a fuss over such things as its crude, but it's not your money.
That, changes everything and at the end of the day, I still come out shiny. |
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| Sushipunk |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
who are these economists? |
I thought an economist was somebody who didn't have enough personality to become an accountant? :conf: |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Actually, when a currency such as the dollar is falling value, something has to have to caused this.
Now barring inflation as a cause, a less valuable currency essentially means commodities priced in that denomination now cost more to buy. That is INFLATIONARY. My dollar today becomes $1.05 for example. Therefore a barrel of oil today at $20 now costs $21. That's just an example, but I believe it's playing a major role in the high oil prices, in addition to the geopolitical risks that some call the "risk premium"..
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cool, you included the falling dollar. that makes more sense to me, cheers :)
| quote: |
I've never advocated the abolition of a central banking authority. SO you're talking to wrong guy...;) |
yes, but you advocate the nationalisation of the federal reserve. the reserve is already subject to government oversight. you need an independent head of the bank as a distribution of power, at the very least.
there is no guarantee a government controlled federal reserve (note: im still not sure exactly what you would ever expect to change in terms of policy) would act, as you say, "in the interests of the citizenry", indeed (depending on how you would have the government govern the federal reserve) there is every chance a government could play politics with it.
haha, but until you address (what you see as) the contentious issues/arguments in occrider's post, youre never ever going to convince me :p seriously, the guy is a an intellectual monster, if he says something about economics (his field of employment), that's good enough for me! ;) |
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