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Why should Hillary leave the race? (pg. 18)
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Then let McCain pay for it with his meager funds. He has huge fund-raising problems and Hillary is handing him free pass after free pass. Christ on a bike, there's a thing called reality, and Mitt Romney is now officially a more permanent resident in it than Hillary Clinton. If she were staying in the race to influence the discourse of the race, that would be one thing. But it's an exercise in vanity and it was ok for awhile but it is really obnoxious now. The only reason Obama hasn't already sealed it (her main argument about his electability) is that the primaries are too spread out. You do know that John McCain didn't "seal" up the nomination until March, right? Like more than a month after Mitt Romney and company dropped out of the race? But I suppose you think he should have labored on as well.
Mitt Romney looks so great by comparison to Hillary. He was gracious in defeat and didn't tear his party apart by fighting past the point where competition was realistic. Now he could easily run again with full party support. You think Hillary can still do that? You're crazy. |
i don't care if hillary can run again. i don't support her anymore because i see it is nearly impossible. but to suggest that she is somehow foiling obama's chances is silly. this is the nature of the game and hillary is not obama's running mate. it isn't her duty to ensure he is viewed upon as favorably as you think he should be viewed. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
i don't care if hillary can run again. i don't support her anymore because i see it is impossible. but to suggest that she is somehow foiling obama's chances is silly. this is the nature of the game and hillary is not obama's running mate. it isn't her duty to ensure he is viewed upon as favorably as you think. |
Sure she is. She is taking up Obama's time and resources and directing her own at him. McCain is spared both scrutiny and expenditures. For what purpose? Because Hillary still can't come to terms with her defeat? You're surprised that she is getting animosity directed at her for that from people who think Obama would be a better President than John McCain?
I'd urge any Hillary supporter to read this - it is a fine appraisal of Hillary's best-case scenario - and still shows she can't mathematically win.
| quote: | Clinton's Best Case Scenario
by: Chris Bowers
Thu May 08, 2008 at 11:26
I know we are supposed to move on from the nomination campaign at this point, but in case there was any lingering doubt Clinton could still win the nomination, the new deal proposed from the Michigan Democratic Party should be an end to it. Every high-level Michigan Democrat now appears to be behind a 69-59 pledged delegate split, plus seating the superdelegates:
Michigan Democratic leaders settled today on a plan to give presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton 69 delegates and Barack Obama 59 as a way to get the delegates seated at the national convention.(...)
The state party's executive committee voted today to ask the national party's Rules and Bylaws Committee to approve the 69-59 delegate split when it meets May 31. The plan would shrink Clinton's delegate edge in Michigan from 18 to 10 and allow the state's 157 delegates and superdelegates to be seated at the convention.
The state's Democratic leaders also pushed back the date of the party's State Central Committee meeting from May 17 to June 14 to give the rules committee time to act. The party is to pick 45 pledged delegates and two superdelegates at that meeting. It chose 83 pledged delegates last month at district conventions.
A separate plan submitted to the rules committee by Democratic National Committee members Joel Ferguson of Michigan and Jon Ausman of Florida, both superdelegates, apparently will be withdrawn now that the Michigan executive committee has settled on the 69-59 plan. Under their proposal, delegates would have been allocated based on the primary election results, but have had only half a vote each. The superdelegates would have had full voting rights.(...)
The 69-59 split was proposed last week by four prominent Michigan Democrats who have been working for months to find a way to get Michigan's delegates seated at the Aug. 25-28 convention in Denver: U.S. Rep. Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, United Auto Workers President Ron Gettelfinger, U.S. Sen. Carl Levin and DNC member Debbie Dingell.
While this may not be the exact plan that will pass, it is probably pretty close to the exact plan that will pass. Further, because of hte people backing the proposal, it is extremely unlikely that Clinton will get a better deal than this on Michigan. When it or something similar does pass, Florida will become irrelevant, and probably be seated based on something similar to the January 29th results. Here is the delegate count under that scenario:
Clinton's Best-Case Delegate Scenario
Type Obama Clinton Edwards Remaining 50% + 1
Pledged 1,590.5 1,426.5 19 217 1,627
Super 265 284.5 0 300.5 --
Florida 67 105 13 0 NA
Michigan 59 69 0 0 NA
Total 1,981.5 1,885.5 32 517.5 2,208.5
Even with Florida seated as is, Clinton trails by 96 delegates when the Michigan Party's plan is enacted. Further, since Edwards has declined to make an endorsement, his 32 delegates are now effectively uncommitted superdelegates. So, this means that the best case-scenario for Clinton right now is that she trails by 96 delegates with 549.5 delegates remaining. So, even in Clitnon's best case scenario, Obama only needs 227 of the remaining 550.5 delegates, or 41.3%, to win the nomination.
Clinton's best-case scenario still overwhelmingly favors Obama. So yes, the outcome of the nomination campaign is now a foregone conclusion.
Update: Yes, Florida probably won't be seated as is, and I probably should not have written that it would be. Still, that is why this is Clinton's best-case scenario. And it ain't very good.
Update 2: The Clinton campaign rejects the proposal, which isn't surprising because it puts her nowhere near the nomination. However, considering its backers, most of whom are Clinton people, I still say that something better than this for Clinton is extremely unlikely. |
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5645 |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Sure she is. She is taking up Obama's time and resources and directing her own at him. McCain is spared both scrutiny and expenditures. For what purpose? Because Hillary still can't come to terms with her defeat? You're surprised that she is getting animosity directed at her for that from people who think Obama would be a better President than John McCain?
I'd urge any Hillary supporter to read this - it is a fine appraisal of Hillary's best-case scenario - and still shows she can't mathematically win.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5645 |
you're still assuming two things: (1) hillary owes something to obama, and (ii) obama being in the news won't eventually help him because people see how different he is from the typical politician. in obama's case, i actually think being in the spotlight is a good thing. i really haven't spotted an apparent unlikeable quality. i know a few loyal republicans that even said they would vote for him, even after this wright crap. if he wasn't in the news so much they wouldn't know anything about obama and they would revert to McCain by default. Having mccain on the side lines is not necessarily a bad thing. |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
you're still assuming two things: (1) hillary owes something to obama, and (ii) obama being in the news won't eventually help him because people see how different he is from the typical politician. in obama's case, i actually think being in the spotlight is a good thing. i really haven't spotted an apparent unlikeable quality. i know a few loyal republicans that even said they would vote for him, even after this wright crap. if he wasn't in the news so much they wouldn't know anything about obama and they would revert to McCain by default. Having mccain on the side lines is not necessarily a bad thing. |
I'm certainly not assuming Hillary owes Obama anything. I'm assuming that Hillary would prefer Obama, who agrees with 95% of her campaign platform, over John McCain.
Having McCain on the sidelines is terrible. Have you any idea how much stupid he's said in the last month that he's gotten away with because nobody cares about him right now?!!? |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
i'm not fluent in socially-awkward-most-likely-a-virgin lingo. |
you are an idiot ......
really..... |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
Sure she is. She is taking up Obama's time and resources and directing her own at him. McCain is spared both scrutiny and expenditures. For what purpose? Because Hillary still can't come to terms with her defeat? You're surprised that she is getting animosity directed at her for that from people who think Obama would be a better President than John McCain?
I'd urge any Hillary supporter to read this - it is a fine appraisal of Hillary's best-case scenario - and still shows she can't mathematically win.
http://www.openleft.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=5645 |
well stated..... I could not of said it better myself.... I only have virgin lingo to carry me through the www ;) |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lebezniatnikov
I'm certainly not assuming Hillary owes Obama anything. I'm assuming that Hillary would prefer Obama, who agrees with 95% of her campaign platform, over John McCain.
Having McCain on the sidelines is terrible. Have you any idea how much stupid he's said in the last month that he's gotten away with because nobody cares about him right now?!!? |
that's the point, nobody cares about him. he will still say stupid during the campaign. he isn't magically going to become smart in a few months. as we all know, it only takes one insignificant issue to get the media going. McCain will have his fair shake to say dumb and have a camera down his throat trying to explain himself. the difference between mccain and obama is that americans are tired of hearing bumbling fools try to justify their words. McCain falls into the bush camp with his ability to move a crowd with words. on the other hand, obama is about as eloquent as bill clinton, if not more so. as much as we want this to be about issues, for an overwhelming majority of americans it's really more about who is more likable, then it's about which candidate has the least disagreeable positions on issues. most americans aren't on the right or left fringe. in this case, obama clearly gets the nod on both.
i should probably add, it seems like you are assuming that the race would be front page news throughout the summer. i disagree. unless you can provide some sort of evidence that a general election gets moving this early, i assume that this would be a down period for both campaigns. |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
you obviously missed the entire point. it's not about what you want. despite what you think, your opinion actually means . you have zero influence in US politics.
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actually, my position gives me a smidgen of influence in your life.....
just a small one..... |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by shaolin_Z
Yeah, kinda like Raccoon City :nervous:. |
BRAINS!!!!! |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by LazFX
actually, my position gives me a smidgen of influence in your life.....
just a small one..... |
how so? do enlighten. |
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| LazFX |
| quote: | Originally posted by jerZ07002
how so? do enlighten. |
i read your email ;) |
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| jerZ07002 |
| quote: | Originally posted by LazFX
i read your email ;) |
haha...i can't argue with that sort of influence. |
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