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OBAMA's Bounce is Gone
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| LittleGoku |
Cnn
| quote: | http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/31/cnn-poll-obama-49-mccain-48/
From CNN/Opinion Research Center: Obama 49, McCain 48
ST. PAUL, Minnesota (CNN) — On the eve of the Republican convention, a new national poll suggests the race for the White House remains dead even.
A CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released Sunday night shows the Obama-Biden ticket leading the McCain-Palin ticket by one point, 49 percent to 48 percent, a statistical dead heat.
The survey was conducted Friday through Sunday, after both the conclusion of the Democratic convention and McCain’s selection of Alaska Governor Sarah Palin as his running mate.
A previous CNN poll, taken just one week earlier, suggested the race between Sens. McCain, R-Arizona, and Obama, D-Illinois, was tied at 47 percent each.
“The convention — and particularly Obama's speech — seems to be well-received. And the selection of Sarah Palin as the GOP running mate, also seems to be well-received. So why is the race still a virtual tie? Probably because the two events created equal and opposite bounces — assuming that either one created a bounce at all,” says CNN Polling Director Keating Holland. |
Zogby
| quote: |
http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews1547.html
The latest nationwide survey, begun Friday afternoon after the McCain announcement of Palin as running mate and completed mid-afternoon today, shows McCain/Palin at 47%, compared to 45% support for Obama/Biden. |
I don't need to add any of my commentary. I'll let the numbers speak. |
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| josh4 |
Its no surprise that the polling which shows a close race is the one embraced by the media.
| quote: | Gallup Daily: Obama-Biden Ticket Leads by 6 Points
PRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup Poll Daily tracking from Aug. 28-30, including two days of interviewing since the close of the Democratic National Convention, finds Barack Obama with a six percentage point lead over John McCain in the presidential contest, 48% to 42%.
Though down slightly from the eight-point lead Obama held mid-convention, this represents a clear improvement for the Democratic candidate's positioning in the campaign compared to a week ago when the race was about tied. The last Gallup update conducted entirely before Obama's convention and vice presidential announcement was based on interviews conducted Aug. 20-22, and showed Obama up by two points, 46% to 44%. (To view the complete trend since March 7, 2008 click here.)
As the recent trend shows, Obama did not gain any additional support in the poll since his generally well-reviewed acceptance speech on Thursday night. However, the Aug. 28-30 field period also includes two days of interviewing since the Friday morning announcement by McCain that he has chosen Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin to join him on the Republican ticket. Thus, it is unclear whether the full positive impact on national voters of the Democratic convention or Obama's speech would have been greater if not for the Palin announcement.
As Gallup has noted in recent weeks, both the vice presidential selections and the national conventions have historically produced small bumps in support for the presidential candidates associated with those events (on the order of about five percentage points for each). However, this year, Obama's announcement of Joe Biden as his running mate produced no immediate increase in support for Obama in a one-night USA Today/Gallup reaction poll.
Given that the immediate reaction by national voters to Palin was very similar to their first reaction to Biden -- mildly positive but also with a high degree of uncertainty about each -- it may not be surprising if the publicity surrounding her announcement also does not produce an immediate bounce in support for McCain.
The mounting news coverage over the past 48 hours of the impending landfall of Hurricane Gustav on the Gulf Coast introduces still another variable into the mix of factors possibly affecting voter reaction to the recent campaign events.
Monday's Gallup Poll Daily tracking report will be the first three-day rolling average based entirely on interviews conducted after the Democratic National Convention, as well as after the announcement of Palin as McCain's choice for vice president. -- Lydia Saad
http://www.gallup.com/poll/109903/G...ads-Points.aspx |
Plus Zogby's latest sampling in that poll was from Friday, this was from Saturday. |
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| Q5echo |
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| josh4 |
No more like
You're just jealous because all your would be messiahs can't get past corruption and/or mens bathroom sex scandals. |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by josh4
You're just jealous because all your would be messiahs can't get past corruption and/or mens bathroom sex scandals. |
taxes. Judges. defence. thats all i care about.
btw, is that a unicorn behind Neo? if it is that is so much gheyer than Icarus. |
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| Q5echo |
i am not kidding >LINK< |
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| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
taxes. Judges. defence. thats all i care about. |
Well Obama's plan will actually cut more taxes vs. McCain's, especially for the middle class.
Judges, well that's likely solidly in there for McCain for you.
As for defense, I don't see anywhere in Obama's plan where he would be cutting spending for defense. In fact I believe he's raising spending for it, but I suspect you're referring to more than just that on that one. |
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| josh4 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Q5echo
i am not kidding >LINK< |
Nothing wrong with giving kids a leader they can look up to. Its about time and the high youth turnout (at least for the democrats) only seals this point. How is it any different than athletes being featured on a Wheaties box? |
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| The17sss |
lol I love some of these photos
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| MisterOpus1 |
I highly suggest you shy away from using Zogby - it has been the consistent outlier for years now, and many on both sides of the aisle have discredited it for it's inconsistency, especially in comparison to other polls.
I find it better to take stock in the polls combined in order to examine a moving trend of any sorts, and as of now there's not much to go by just yet on any trend:
http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php
In any case, I've said it numerous times before, I'm not surprised in the slightest that this race was going to be close at all times from now to November. Most Democrats are not surprised either. This article puts a nice perspective on the "bounce" stuff:
| quote: | August 30, 2008
"Bounce" Update
By Mark Blumenthal
I spent much of yesterday in taxis, airports and planes, and most of the last 24 hours sleeping and reintroducing myself to my family after a five day absence. So my apologies for being away when many of your are curious about the "bounce" and reactions to Republican VP choice Sarah Palin.
Let's start with "the bounce." The Gallup Daily tracking survey conducted Wednesday through Friday shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by eight points (49% to 41%) up from the 45-45% tie measured the full week before the convention. The Rasmussen Reports automated survey conducted over the same three nights shows Obama with a four point lead (49% to 45%), after they had him "leading by just one or two points for most of August."
The most important question, tossed my way by my colleague Marc Ambinder, is whether this shift represents a momentary "spike" or a real and persistent change in voter preferences. And the short but frustrating answer is, there is simply no way to know for certain right now.
One problem is that we have a very limited sample of past convention "bounces" to examine -- a sample size of 10 elections and 20 conventions since 1968 -- and the patterns within that sample have been inconsistent. Some bounces persist, some fade almost immediately.
Another problem, which I explored in a column earlier in the week, is that almost all of the "bounces" of conventions past were measured by multi-day polls conducted a week after the convention without another convention underway. This time, the virtual overlap of the two conventions prevents us from obtaining post DNC "bounce" numbers that are comparable to past measurements. So my recommendation is to avoid historical comparisons.
Finally, consider a few reasons why conventions bounces are sometimes just momentary blips.
First, most pollsters will tell you that attitudes are likely "in flux" at times like these. Watching one side of an argument for an hour or more might leave an uncertain voter "leaning" in one direction for a few days only to shift back in the other direction after hearing from the other side a few days or weeks later.
Second, the kinds of people likely to have been at home the last few days may have been a bit different than those who were away (and thus not part of the survey). Partisan Democrats and Obama supporters may have made it a point to be at home n order to watch the convention. Also, those who just happened to be home (for whatever reason) were probably more likely to have watched the convention and the news generally than those more likely to have been away (for whatever reason). The combination may result in a momentary "response bias" favor ingof the Democrats.
It is not surprising that the Rasmussen survey shows a smaller shift, since they weight by party identification. If the "bounce" is solely the result of a non-response bias toward Democratic identifiers, party weighting in this situation would make sense. But we don't know that it is. Conventions bounces that are real and persistent often shift party identification and candidate preference. In September 2004, for example, five national surveys conducted entirely after the Republican convention showed increases in Republican identification. Pollsters that weighted by the pre-convention party ID averages would have artificially suppressed the size of Bush's bounce.
So, like it or not, we really won't have a sense of what these shifts mean -- and what they portend for the rest of the campaign -- until the Republican convention ends and the dust starts to settle in about 10 days.
As for the polls out today testing reactions to Sarah Palin, I hope to post more tomorrow, but for now suffice it to say that I put very little stock in one-night quickie polls conducted on the Friday night before a three-day, holiday weekend. The one from Gallup is probably the best of the lot, if only because they provide comparable results from prior one-night quickie polls conducted to evaluate vice-presidential nominees (although most of these were fielded on week-nights). But take it all with huge grains of salt. With someone as unknown nationally as Sarah Palin was just 48 hours ago, first impressions can be exceptionally fleeting.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/bounce_update.php |
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| Q5echo |
| quote: | Originally posted by josh4
Nothing wrong with giving kids a leader they can look up to. Its about time and the high youth turnout (at least for the democrats) only seals this point. How is it any different than athletes being featured on a Wheaties box? |
you're missing it. Frosted Flakes? and they're serious!
tell me the youth is not going to miss that one:haha: |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by MisterOpus1
I highly suggest you shy away from using Zogby - it has been the consistent outlier for years now, and many on both sides of the aisle have discredited it for it's inconsistency, especially in comparison to other polls. |
For sure... Zogby was 23 points off in the California primary. lol |
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