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The Next Great Depression
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| biscomusic321 |
So the dow is down over 700 points today-- 8% of its total value...
When does it end? |
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| Capitalizt |
October 23rd.
ok seriously...nobody knows. It's going to take a long time to unwind this mess and for the stimulus from all the new money being printed to kick in. Markets tend to be forward looking however, so I wouldn't be surprised to see stocks recover even as unemployment continues to rise. We could be in a bad recession for another 6-12 months, but it's not going to turn into a depression. Every government and central bank around the world determined to prevent that. They will start throwing money out of helicopters if necessary. |
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| biscomusic321 |
To my mind there already is a depression - we are looking at lower numbers across the board "Retail sales decreased 1.2 percent last month, nearly double the 0.7 percent drop that had been expected, according to one government report, while an index of New York manufacturing hit a record low in September." - nytimes
I just don't see anything really being secure on the international or domestic market- energy is tanking, credit is gone in the market place, and national debt is skyrocketing... we are literally paying this crisis of through the chinese buying our bonds SCARY.
Hopefully all these market jolts will settle and people will realize that quality companies are now significantly undervalued and return their money (read confidence) to the market |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by biscomusic321
To my mind there already is a depression - we are looking at lower numbers across the board "Retail sales decreased 1.2 percent last month, nearly double the 0.7 percent drop that had been expected, according to one government report, while an index of New York manufacturing hit a record low in September." - nytimes
I just don't see anything really being secure on the international or domestic market- energy is tanking, credit is gone in the market place, and national debt is skyrocketing... we are literally paying this crisis of through the chinese buying our bonds SCARY.
Hopefully all these market jolts will settle and people will realize that quality companies are now significantly undervalued and return their money (read confidence) to the market |
i wish some people would do a little research before throwing terms around willy-nilly.
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A good rule of thumb for determining the difference between a recession and a depression is to look at the changes in GNP. A depression is any economic downturn where real GDP declines by more than 10 percent. A recession is an economic downturn that is less severe.
By this yardstick, the last depression in the United States was from May 1937 to June 1938, where real GDP declined by 18.2 percent. If we use this method then the Great Depression of the 1930s can be seen as two separate events: an incredibly severe depression lasting from August 1929 to March 1933 where real GDP declined by almost 33 percent, a period of recovery, then another less severe depression of 1937-38. The United States hasn�t had anything even close to a depression in the post-war period. The worst recession in the last 60 years was from November 1973 to March 1975, where real GDP fell by 4.9 percent. Countries such as Finland and Indonesia have suffered depressions in recent memory using this definition. |
http://economics.about.com/cs/busin...pressions_2.htm |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by biscomusic321
So the dow is down over 700 points today-- 8% of its total value...
When does it end? |
It ends when banks start lending to each other again. As of now, it's been about 3 weeks since they last lended to one another. |
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| biscomusic321 |
| upon rereading my second post i realize it was not a thoughtful as i would have liked but i did say "to my mind" -- i didn't realize that i was going to get trolled for not using the technically 'proper' way to determine what in my opinion or word choice should be. |
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| {b.s.e.} |
| quote: | Originally posted by biscomusic321
upon rereading my second post i realize it was not a thoughtful as i would have liked but i did say "to my mind" -- i didn't realize that i was going to get trolled for not using the technically 'proper' way to determine what in my opinion or word choice should be. |
Yeah, boy were you wrong. :wtf:
Heh. |
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| Fir3start3r |
| quote: | Originally posted by biscomusic321
upon rereading my second post i realize it was not a thoughtful as i would have liked but i did say "to my mind" -- i didn't realize that i was going to get trolled for not using the technically 'proper' way to determine what in my opinion or word choice should be. |
Note to self: There are fastidious people on the internets... ;) |
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| Magnetonium |
biscomusic321, Welcome to the PDD! :D :D :D
Looks like you're off to a tough start ... no worries, you'll catch on ;) |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by biscomusic321
upon rereading my second post i realize it was not a thoughtful as i would have liked but i did say "to my mind" -- i didn't realize that i was going to get trolled for not using the technically 'proper' way to determine what in my opinion or word choice should be. |
'depression' and 'recession' are particular economics terms to describe particular economic situations, and you can't use them to mean whatever YOU would like them to mean. |
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| {b.s.e.} |
| quote: | Originally posted by ********
It is not to late to join my cult. We will find land and make all our own food and clothing using primitive technologies such as loom wieghts and pottery.
Act before it is too late.
[email protected]
WE MUST GET OUT BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
Wouldn't you be better off using your passport while it is still valid, and leave the country? :wtf: |
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