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Stock traders thread (pg. 10)
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by LiveTime
normally i'd say that's a good indicator of the direction of oil, but as of late it seems as though europe is the main driver of prices and things are only getting worse there. i'm expecting oil to be sent down to 65 down that it has broken 70, which used to be the bottom and now would be considered the top. |
we broke 69.50 which was the first resistance for futures and now our next resistance is 65.50 (which i doubt we will see as delivery for june is almost here). Most etfs (if not all) have rolled over to july so you should watch that contract. Contango is reducing (the spread between june and july) and july seems to have some stable ground at around 72 with a slight rally this morning. If this report is good tomorrow oil will go forward. my trigger finger is itching for my third position hehe.
The euro needs to strengthen though and the US dollar needs to weeken to help boost comodity prices. IF this doesnt happen, expect energy companies to remain low.
keep an eye on UUP to track US dollar preformance.
i'm bullish on oil. We've come out of this recession, companies are reporting decent quarters and the piigs have their bailout package so markets should flourish (just as ours did when we had our packages).
If you're patient i would suggest you wait for better prices. Again keep an eye out for eia's storage report tomorrow. |
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| DigiNut |
| quote: | Originally posted by Skipper
Your sarcasm is so thick these days I can hardly understand wtf you're getting at most of the time.
What exactly is bull? the economic recovery going on? It's definitely happening, but the next bubble is in government debt and there a'int no bailout for that. |
Huh? There was no sarcasm whatsoever in that post.
It's bull that the TSX drops 500 points in just a few days with no real reason. Simple. Not everything I say is sarcastic. Just the vast majority of it. |
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| LiveTime |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
we broke 69.50 which was the first resistance for futures and now our next resistance is 65.50 (which i doubt we will see as delivery for june is almost here). Most etfs (if not all) have rolled over to july so you should watch that contract. Contango is reducing (the spread between june and july) and july seems to have some stable ground at around 72 with a slight rally this morning. If this report is good tomorrow oil will go forward. my trigger finger is itching for my third position hehe.
The euro needs to strengthen though and the US dollar needs to weeken to help boost comodity prices. IF this doesnt happen, expect energy companies to remain low.
keep an eye on UUP to track US dollar preformance.
i'm bullish on oil. We've come out of this recession, companies are reporting decent quarters and the piigs have their bailout package so markets should flourish (just as ours did when we had our packages).
If you're patient i would suggest you wait for better prices. Again keep an eye out for eia's storage report tomorrow. |
i agree that the price of oil "should" rally when the EIA reports tomorrow. However, oil futures are currently 68 and change and the main driver of this is the euro/dollar x-rate. Thus i'm not placing a whole lot of emphasis on the report. As for the contango, the spread right now is $3.49. Which is pretty damn big in my opinion. contracts expire this friday, and if there's any indication as to what WILL happen, and often does happen on the 3rd friday is that the futures prices will be taken downward. I'd like to say i'm bullish on oil for the rest of the week, but frankly i'm not. I'm a very short-term trader so for the week, oil will continue to head down. That will likely change next week once we near 65.5 |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by LiveTime
i agree that the price of oil "should" rally when the EIA reports tomorrow. However, oil futures are currently 68 and change and the main driver of this is the euro/dollar x-rate. Thus i'm not placing a whole lot of emphasis on the report. As for the contango, the spread right now is $3.49. Which is pretty damn big in my opinion. contracts expire this friday, and if there's any indication as to what WILL happen, and often does happen on the 3rd friday is that the futures prices will be taken downward. I'd like to say i'm bullish on oil for the rest of the week, but frankly i'm not. I'm a very short-term trader so for the week, oil will continue to head down. That will likely change next week once we near 65.5 |
3.49 after hours... it was as low as 3 dollars today (it used to be 5) and now july is the primary driver (you can see this in the volume of july relative to june. If oil june goes to 65 and the contango widens it will be negligent on the performance on any etf since they have all rolled over into july. contango can widen as much as it wants now so long as we see it widening downwards more from the june end. I beleive the contract expires thursday (if im not mistaken, third business day prior to the 25th). Once june expires our new curent future price is july and if you do technicals on that you will see that we have a much higher support.
i highly doubt we will see july 65 or even july in 60 anything. |
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| jester |
| In other news the "Thai stock exchange" first floor is on fire. That was 2 hours ago :crazy: |
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| rabbitjoker |
Premarket and foreign point to another bad day on the US/CA markets.
Should have pulled the trigger and fire-sale'd last week. Grr. |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by rabbitjoker
Premarket and foreign point to another bad day on the US/CA markets.
Should have pulled the trigger and fire-sale'd last week. Grr. |
if the markets open slightly red, i would suggest that everyone buy a leveraged double inverse index fund. The hang seng dropped over 300 points which is huge.
If i'm wrong i'll buy you guys a coffee ;) |
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| jester |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
if the markets open slightly red, i would suggest that everyone buy a leveraged double inverse index fund. The hang seng dropped over 300 points which is huge.
If i'm wrong i'll buy you guys a coffee ;) |
Coffee lol your cheap make it a Ford Fiesta and you got a deal. |
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| Skipper |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
if the markets open slightly red, i would suggest that everyone buy a leveraged double inverse index fund. |
lol, this coming from the guy who 10 posts up just said "you should see the hole i am in" |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by Skipper
lol, this coming from the guy who 10 posts up just said "you should see the hole i am in" |
lol yeah im in a dunger.. but hey.. look.. i was right wasnt i?
we can't call them all.
crude report wasnt fantastic.. still a surplus of about 1 million barels. fairly tight compared to the last two weeks. Next week should definatley bring a draw. futures got excited and rallied for about 5 minutes then dipped again. Still waiting to get into my third position.
date| storage | change from previous week
Apr 23, 2010 1799507 12892
Apr 30, 2010 1809298 9791
May 07, 2010 1812723 3425
May 14, 2010 1813900 1177
that number next week should be a negative
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/wpsr.txt |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by jester
Coffee lol your cheap make it a Ford Fiesta and you got a deal. |
i dont have that much margin my friend.
edit:
2.20 contango now for oil. june and july are converging with upward movement from june. This is good news for july resistance, its going to be that much harder to break 70 dollars july (right now we are 72 july. This is an excellent time for first positions in oil etfs if you are bullish on oil. |
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| jester |
| I wonder how many people will commit suicide today lol |
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