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Buy low Sell high (pg. 5)
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| Lagrangian |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
honestly, you gotta get some leverage on that . can't you make some option plays on these moves? you are talking about less than 1% here.
Try the thursday 10:30am natural gas report. that's where the game is at ;)
find a nice leveraged vehicle, i am usually short,
and boom
you're solid
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=T...UUbDaMMqLrQHSUA |
baby i did 20% (I avg 7-10% a week) returns this week alone trading gbp/jpy on my personal account...
i'm ing lucifer.
edit: 17% this week!! :wtf: still king of the jews... |
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| Lagrangian |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
honestly, you gotta get some leverage on that . can't you make some option plays on these moves? you are talking about less than 1% here.
Try the thursday 10:30am natural gas report. that's where the game is at ;)
find a nice leveraged vehicle, i am usually short,
and boom
you're solid
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=T...UUbDaMMqLrQHSUA |
DOUBLE TOP!!!! |
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| Lagrangian |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
honestly, you gotta get some leverage on that . can't you make some option plays on these moves? you are talking about less than 1% here.
Try the thursday 10:30am natural gas report. that's where the game is at ;)
find a nice leveraged vehicle, i am usually short,
and boom
you're solid
http://www.google.co.uk/finance?q=T...UUbDaMMqLrQHSUA |
a break above 4.44 and we're looking at testing 4.88...short at 4.88? |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lagrangian
a break above 4.44 and we're looking at testing 4.88...short at 4.88? |
you can't run the techincals off the etf. The commodity itself yes, but not the etf (As it only tracks via NAV).
i need 4.86 acb on this puppy for break even. I will hold till 10$.
edit: this is an inverse etf so i play this long, but it mimics 200% of the daily inverse return of nymex natural gas
*see nymex natural gas front month link below
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/natural-gas/natural-gas.html
natural gas goes below 3$ i'm laughing
if it decides to run up to 4$, i'm crying lol |
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| Lagrangian |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
you can't run the techincals off the etf. The commodity itself yes, but not the etf (As it only tracks via NAV).
i need 4.86 acb on this puppy for break even. I will hold till 10$.
edit: this is an inverse etf so i play this long, but it mimics 200% of the daily inverse return of nymex natural gas
*see nymex natural gas front month link below
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/ene...atural-gas.html
natural gas goes below 3$ i'm laughing
if it decides to run up to 4$, i'm crying lol |
my peers are screaming 150...wisdom of crowds and all that jazz...i'll wait and see. no biggie.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=GBPJPY=X |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
1.50 gas?
No way (or i should say i doubt it).. there has been too much coal to gas demand switching occurring, even though we are at record supply, sudden demand increases the past 2 years have been a thorn in the shorsellers side. MAybe maybe if we have a super mild summer and an upcomming warm winter then yes.
I keep my eye out on the curve, if we do break into the 2s (Which i see is likely) i will try to ride down to teh 1s
last years drop to sub 2 was because of our record warm winter. Anyone that tried to short into the 1s got assraped though as the coal switch definitely caught Managed money short sellers by surprise
look at the jump here:
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?s...F01%2F2012#jump
a good gauge when dealing with gas is to watch the open interest positions. If money managers are heading short you can guarantee prices will drop. If they are short too many positions for too long though, watch out, fast recoil short covers can rip the shirt off your back quicker than you can hit the buyback button. Next thing you know you're sleeping in your truck.
It's all the fun in the game though :).
Here's a chart that i plotted a while back (2011) which shows the trending relationship between COT and price
while the r-squared is nothing to brag home about, one cannot deny that managed money positioning doesn't have a strong impact on price. reactive or proactive is hard to gauge though. |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| lol i thoguht you were takling about 1.50 gas.. not 150 gbpjpy |
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| Lagrangian |
| Unleash the currency wars! It's a central banker's market. |
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| billymadision |
| Can you guys post charts comparing USD JPY EUR AUD INR GBP over 3 years? OR recommend a website that can, for free? |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
for technicals i like to use barchart.com
heres what winston is talking about, i've added your standard 20,2 bollingers
http://www.barchart.com/chart.php?sym=^GBPJPY&style=technical&template=&p=DO&d=M&sd=&ed=&size=M&log=0&t=BAR&v=0&g=1&evnt=1&late=1&o1=&o2=&o3=&sh=100&indicators=BBANDS%2820%2C2%2C10066431%2C3227936511%29&chartindicator_1_code=BBANDS&chartindicator_1_param_0=20&chartindicator_1_param_1=2&chartindicator_1_param_2=10066431&chartindicator_1_param_3=3227936511&addindicator=&submitted=1&fpage=&txtDate=#jump
you can easily modify the parameters here and put other overlays. This isn't interactive as in a live chart though.
if you want to run techinicals on something interactive i suggest you use this site:
http://www.investing.com/currencies...-advanced-chart
i use this with natural gas, there is a couple of seconds delay to realtime. Of course, if you are trading this , your brokerage should have you setup with something that is realtime. I suggest using interactive brokers if you are going to go with futures and options. With forex, i'm not sure how their comissions are.
Winston, when you guys trade forex, how are the comissions? Is it percentage based? or a flat fee per trade, lets say 9.99 or something per buy, 9.99 per sell? |
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| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lagrangian
Unleash the currency wars! It's a central banker's market. |
not that i'm an expert in currency or anything, but i would say it has more to do with the fact that the JPY is weakening than the Pound strenghtening. You can run it against USD or CAD and see the same thing.
Actually, against the USD, the GBP has trended lower over the past month or so. I'm sure that Carney's goal will be to try and maintain the UK inflation rate instead of easing. You compare their 2.7% to canada's 0.8% and you think that maybe canadians need a first round of easing lol.
And then you think again why banks are so quick to want to jump the mortgage rates. How can you tighten lending policy when your inflation rate is . CAD big banks work in collusion as crooks. Again i don't know much about currency/ inflation but i know enough that when no one is spending money, you don't go ahead and make it harder to borrow. |
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| billymadision |
| Is there any point in the Yuan? When did China become the center of the monetary universe? |
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