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The 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine Discussion Thread (pg. 4)
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by JEO
Get ing real, Lira. You sound more ridiculous by each post you make. |
Well, you asked me what my views were, there you have them. However, this is not a hill I'm willing to die on or anything, so here's to hoping it all works out for you guys. I have no quarrels admitting I'm wrong if it turns out to be a good idea.
Personally, I don't feel there's anything left to be said, so I'm done with non-Ukraine discussions in this thread. |
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| JEO |
| You can shut your mouth about it but the smell remains. |
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| Dhagor |
Interesting debate.
Specially for someone who was born into the former Soviet union and went to school '88 - in the midst of the last wave of "russoaggropropaganda". Sorry, can't think of a better name for putting 1st graders to learn more russian language lessons per day than their native birth language.
I was just discussing with my colleague from Finland who is roughly in the same age as I, just how different our childhoods were. Example: when tanks rolled to Tallinn then we started digging a bunker with neighbourhood kids. How I still know russian anthem words subconsciously and they start to sing in my head every time I even hear a phrase of that damn song.
All above aside. Baltic states would be easy for Russia -they only need to take control of the Suwalki corridor and that would be all she wrote for NATO land troops. Finland on the other hand is a whole different ballgame. Firstly, Finlands army is not to be messed with. They are equipped and there are many. In addition the landscape isn't the easiest to cross, Finland IS the country of thousand lakes, atleast. Older russians probably still remember the notorious White Death (worlds most accomplished sniper to date)
Overall, this could still go either way: either a fullblown nuclear war or the demise of the tsar and real democracy in Russia, after the powervacum get's resolved. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Most Russians live West of the Urals, not in Siberia. So, just as we should take Finnish worries seriously, if NATO doesn't have a good track record when it comes to protecting states during negotiations, we cannot be so dismissive about Russian sensibilities here either.
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Seriously Lira, what do you think will happen? Russia does not have the military capability to go after Finland right now, so I don't know why you bring up this argument that NATO hasn't defended countries that... aren't part of NATO. What the hell kind of argument is that for Finland not joining NATO? Especially when your argument contains a massive "???" in the part where you're supposed to explain how Russia can credibly threaten Finland while it's still wrapped up in Ukraine.
I note you've jacked that graphic from the Guardian but left out the quotes from the article it comes from:
| quote: | But while locals expressed some concern about possible Russian reactions to the country’s plans to join Nato, Finnish experts and officials have urged calm, saying their country is prepared for any aggression.
“The nuclear threat is nothing new,” said Stubb, pointing to reports that Russia is already keeping nuclear weapons in Kaliningrad.
“We expect more Russian cyber-attacks and airspace violations. But we have been preparing for this for a long time,” he said.
Stubb and other analysts dismissed the possibility that Russia would be able to threaten Finland militarily in the near future.
“Russia can’t fight on two fronts, and they would be facing one of the most sophisticated militaries in the world. As always, we remain calm, cool and collected. We know what we are doing,” the former prime minister said.
Finland has maintained strong defence spending over the last 30 years while the rest of Europe has largely made cuts. The Nordic state is also one of the few European countries to have retained military conscription, and almost a third of its adult population are reservists.
Lappeenranta’s mayor, Jarva, similarly said he did not expect any military threats coming out of Moscow, adding the border has “never been quieter”. |
And honestly, if your answer is going to be another variation of "I don't know, but it's best to be cautious", just save your keyboard the wear and tear. |
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| planetaryplayer |
| Prussia must be liberated. |
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| JEO |
Is Putin close to making another mistake with Moldova and/or "Transnistria"? That's what the rumour now seems to be. They're fairly close to the Moldovan border in southern Ukraine, but I think the distance will still provide many opportunities for Ukraine to motti the west-moving Russian forces and drive them out to the sea. Provided there are enough Ukrainian forces in the south to accomplish anything of course. To me pushing west along a narrow strip on the southern coast would just seem exactly like something Putin would do now, willingly pushing a few more thousand Russians into the meat grinder.
In the big picture Transnistria would actually make sense to me, making it possible for him to then push on Kyiv from the north and the south at the same time if he wishes, while keeping Ukraine's eastern forces occupied with an attack pushing west from Donbas, and another attack pushing north from Russian-occupied areas on the southern coast to flank the forces defending the west-moving forces moving from Donbas. Not trying to stroke Putin's ding-dong here or anything, but this possible strategy might make more sense than the previous one, with the assumption that the slightly risky move to Transnistria will work on some level and they manage to get their logistics working between Donbas and Transnistria, being able to move considerable amounts of forces there.
And what comes to whether Transnistria or even parts of Moldova will fall.. There are like 10 000 soldiers and 70 000 reservists in all of Moldova, with Transnistria just basically waiting for Russia to occupy the whole area with a handful of tanks or something similar. Not much resistance to be expected there, I think.
What do you all think of Putin's health? Doesn't he seem a bit withered? So far I've tried to brush off all the speculation about his failing health, but during his recent talk with Shoygu he really seemed like he was holding in a hangover puke at a family dinner or something. |
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| Sykonee |
| quote: | Originally posted by JEO
What do you all think of Putin's health? Doesn't he seem a bit withered? So far I've tried to brush off all the speculation about his failing health, but during his recent talk with Shoygu he really seemed like he was holding in a hangover puke at a family dinner or something. |
He did seem to be gripping onto that table for dear life.
Also, after all the pictures with the absurdly large tables, NOW he does a photo-op with the tiniest table in the land? |
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| JEO |
| quote: | Originally posted by Sykonee
Also, after all the pictures with the absurdly large tables, NOW he does a photo-op with the tiniest table in the land? |
Well that's just Russia I think. You tell them their latest potato harvest was bad and they're going to show you photos of potato-sized stones painted yellow to try and prove you wrong. My Estonian coworker went to military in the USSR, and he says he actually had to spray paint dead grass green for a general's visit to his brigade.
Parkinson's seems plausible to me. They've let a couple of videos slip where his shaky and involuntary movements are quite clearly visible, both in the arms and the legs. Don't know if this actually hinders him continuing as the president or anything. Probably not.
I just have to highlight the change in his appearance: six months ago he seemed healthy, giving a live translated interview to CNBC. Now he looks like he'd rather sleep than give half an interview. Could also be that him realizing he doesn't have much time left is what triggered this hastily put together attack on Ukraine. |
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| Sykonee |
| quote: | Originally posted by JEO
I just have to highlight the change in his appearance: six months ago he seemed healthy, giving a live translated interview to CNBC. Now he looks like he'd rather sleep than give half an interview. Could also be that him realizing he doesn't have much time left is what triggered this hastily put together attack on Ukraine. |
That does seem to be the running theory. Getting zealous religious encouragement from the Russian Orthodox church probably kicked things into high gear.
"You must do great achievement before the end, for Great Legacy of all time in the eyes of God!" |
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| Sykonee |
| *haha, double-post! haven't seen that 'round here in a while. Happy Sunday Mornings!:crazy: |
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by planetaryplayer
Prussia must be liberated. |
As someone of Prussian ancestry, I would seriously love to see Königsberg German again. Make Prussia great again!
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| planetaryplayer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
As someone of Prussian ancestry, I would seriously love to see Königsberg German again. Make Prussia great again!
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my girlfriend is as well.. a few years ago she got to visit (after filing a 50 page application) her grandfathers old hotel and shop. she's not impressed at how the russians allowed such a great place wither away. i can see no better way to win the honour of her house than reclaiming former land |
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