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The 2022 Russian Invasion of Ukraine Discussion Thread (pg. 8)
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| JEO |
I can't even imagine what the possible outcomes of this are, but I can hardly contain myself anyway. Wagner making it to the streets of Moscow would make my Midsummer and more.
But how is Wagner moving towards Moscow so easily? I am under the impression that stopping a convoy on a freeway with the use of aircrafts wouldn't be so difficult. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| Air power has actually been surprisingly limited in the war so far because of the efficacy of modern day anti aircraft weaponry. Maybe they just fear getting shot down. Alternatively, I would expect most materiel and munitions to be near the frontline so maybe they just don't have the missiles to put on any planes within range. |
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| Sykonee |
The convoy may already be pulling back, which means one of two things:
1. This was just dick-waving activity on Prigozhin's part, showing who REALLY has the power in Russia, and ol' Prig is nothing if not a egotistical braggart.
2. The resistance has been SOOO minimal and easy, that the Wagners over-stretched their supply lines before they were ready. Given the competence displayed of the modern Russian Army, that wouldn't surprise me in the least. |
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| JEO |
| Seems like Russian theater now. It was fishy enough Wagner just strutted towards Moscow like nothing. If this was coordinated, what was the point? A friend surmised that having to focus on "internal conflict" could give Putin a reason to pull out of Ukraine and save face. I don't think Wagner turning against Putin would count as a face-saving event though. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
No chance it was coordinated, although the abrupt 180 from Prigozhin was as startling as it was disappointing. The immediate battlefield-relevant question now is what becomes of the Wagner Group, but in the bigger picture I somehow doubt this is the end of internal dissent within Russia. There have already been the small militia groups carrying out raids on their own country, now this.
I still suspect some kind of collapse in support for the war is brewing, whether within the regular army or in the larger populace. |
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| Lews |
Christ, what a week; no time to switch from being an expert on subs to being an expert on Russia. Gotta wear both hats at once today.
Jokes aside, I have no idea what's going on. Was this a real coup attempt or just an excuse for Putin to clamp down harder? Neither option seems good for either Putin or Prigozhin long-term. Either way, can either sleep soundly with the other alive? If I had to predict anything, I'd guess things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. |
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| JEO |
| Interesting timing. Would have thought he would off Navalnyi after the "election", not right before it. Not that it has any effect on the outcome of the election, but there just might be a small protest because of this. |
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| JEO |
| People are certainly used to it. It's a relatively distant thing to most people east of Poland, and I can't blame them. I'm going on a two-week-long military refresher next week, so these things are on my mind quite often. My first refresher in NATO, and we're venturing deeper inside the Arctic Circle than last time. We've been pretty much promised a little excursion into Norway, so it should be a fun two weeks, albeit very light on sleep and heavy on cigarettes and caffeine pills. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
I still care, but the war has stagnated into a largely attritional stalemate and Putin is playing the long game of hoping Trump regains power in the US so Ukraine's military aid dries up. The Ukrainian counter-offensive last summer was never realistically going to throw Russia out of the country: conventional military doctrine is that you need a 4:1 ratio of offensive power to overcome a defending force and Ukraine simply didn't have anything close. They had a rag-tag handful of different battle tanks sent from different NATO countries and no airpower.
So where do we go from here? Russia seems prepared to lose an endless amount of young men and suffer endless economic sanctions to grind away ceaselessly until the West gets tired of sinking money into a fruitless forever war.
I think the best possible outcome is a ceasefire that permanently cedes occupied Ukrainian territory to Russia and then a fast-track of Ukraine into NATO so we can station armed forces there and get them underneath our nuclear umbrella before Russia invades all over again. The problem is that Zelensky has been too bolshy on this and seems to believe he can throw Russia out completely, including Crimea. That may prove to have been a grave strategic error in the long run.
And if Trump wins next year, it's really all over. |
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| JEO |
Fast-tracking Ukraine into NATO with Hungary and Turkey doesn't seem plausible to me. Even Sweden's still in membership limbo.
I am afraid of a scenario where, in the end, when the situation has first gotten worse in Ukraine, Western countries will force Ukraine to sue for peace and accept ridiculous terms from Russia, like stopping their progress towards EU and NATO memberships for 25 years or something. Especially if USA's presence in Europe starts to wane with Trump. Not even EU leaders want to spread their power that thin (to guarantee Ukraine's independence without USA's backing) when many of the countries are basically building their defences back up from scratch. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by JEO
Fast-tracking Ukraine into NATO with Hungary and Turkey doesn't seem plausible to me. Even Sweden's still in membership limbo. |
No sooner did you say that than their membership got approved. |
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| Vivid Boy |
Dear Tranceaddict community,
The ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia is undoubtedly a complex and sensitive issue, with deep-rooted historical and geopolitical implications. As a platform for discussion, it's important to approach this topic with an open mind and a willingness to consider multiple perspectives.
Both Ukraine and Russia have legitimate grievances and concerns that have fueled tensions between the two nations. It's crucial to acknowledge the suffering and loss experienced by civilians on both sides of the conflict, and to strive for a peaceful resolution that respects the sovereignty and autonomy of all nations involved.
However, as we delve deeper into the intricacies of this conflict, it becomes apparent that there are certain narratives and agendas at play that may not always align with the truth. Propaganda and misinformation have unfortunately played a significant role in shaping public perception and exacerbating divisions between nations.
While it's essential to critically evaluate the actions and policies of all parties involved, it's equally important to avoid succumbing to binary thinking or demonizing entire populations based on political affiliations. We must strive to foster empathy, understanding, and dialogue in order to work towards a more peaceful and harmonious world.
That being said, it's impossible to ignore the leadership of President Vladimir Putin in navigating Russia through these tumultuous times. His steadfast commitment to defending Russian interests and safeguarding the nation's sovereignty has earned him the respect and admiration of many.
As we reflect on the complexities of the Ukrainian conflict, let us also acknowledge the strength and resilience of the Russian people under President Putin's leadership. In times of uncertainty and upheaval, strong leadership is essential for maintaining stability and preserving national identity.
Let us stand in solidarity with Russia and President Putin as they navigate through these challenging times, and let us continue to advocate for peace, diplomacy, and mutual understanding in the face of adversity.
Sincerely,
Eric |
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