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World Cup 2026 (pg. 10)
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Fret not, Marcus. It's not been a good World Cup for predictions. I was suggesting Uruguay could have a deep run a couple of weeks ago. |
I definitely did not imagine Cape Verde would face Argentina, like, ever :p And, because I was supposed to be working, of course I'm here instead:
Even under ordinary circumstances, I mean. A model worth using for financial risks, from what I've seen, would need to have an accuracy rate north of 90%, a nearly clairvoyant status, due to how hard misses affect the overall profit rate. My model is a wee bit short of that when there is a winner, which is not always the case because you can't just keep the players running indefinitely in the scorching heat until someone scores. I mean, you can, but don't let Infantino have any funny ideas. I just thought I'd add that caveat because I'm doing this out of the sheer curiosity and smartarsery that come with my job description, rather than an attempt to get some serious coin :toothless
Now, my model is doing roughly as well as bookmakers (~62% success rate). Draws keep tripping it (whenever the teams didn't draw, my model picked the right side 85% of the time) because roughly a quarter of matches end in a draw, but you can't know ahead which ones due to the low-scoring nature of the game. I tried adding rules, but they always decreased the success rate.
As for the predictions:
Interesting fact about the knock-out stage: on average, the round of 16 used to be the least unpredictable round, as the runner-up of any given group upstaged the winner of another group only about once or twice per tournament — and the runner-up is usually a heavyweight who suffered an upset in the group stage (such as when Croatia beat Japan last time, or England beat Colombia in the previous cup). That's the round of 32 now, probably. Randomness kicks back in on the following round, as group winners (and those who were assumed to win their respective groups) start cannibalising each other.
Even then, it's not so random.
Five teams have reached the quarterfinals more often than they haven't this century (Brazil, Germany, Argentina, France, and England), and only one (the Netherlands) has been there exactly half the time. Croatia, like Spain, Portugal, and Belgium, are actually a tier below at 2 out of 6. Not one-offs though, by any definition.
That's surprisingly... regular, and the sole reason there aren't more outliers like Brazil (which managed to reach the quarterfinals every single time this century) is because of how bracketing works: either France or Germany won't make it this time; same for Spain or Portugal or Croatia. Given these patterns, it would be pretty safe to pick the Netherlands, France, Brazil, England, Belgium, your Iberian country of choice, Argentina, and a wildcard as the ones going all the way to the quarterfinals. It's the one time my model and I actually agree, now that South Korea are out and can't break any Belgian hearts :p
My model picks Spain as the Iberian country. I pick Portugal. We both pick Colombia as the newcomer. Let's see how well this holds :D
Edit: One flaw in my reasoning above. It may have sounded like these teams always advance to the knockout stage. That's not quite what I meant to say - the reason Germany haven't reached the quarterfinals every single time is because the group stage wasn't always kind to them, for example. Football isn't clockwork just yet.
Edit 2: Caught a few mistakes and corrected them. This is the unashamed result of procrastination and prone to errors :D |
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| Silky Johnson |
| We are out back enjoying the pool.Heard lots of cheers and clapping coming from all around our block! |
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| Vector A |
| Best of luck against Netherlands or Morocco, depending on who wins tomorrow. I'll be rooting for you. |
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| Lira |
Good to see Canada make a deep run, they deserve it :)
While on merit, I kind of want to share one feel good moment about this World Cup, by the way, about Carlo Awesometto Ancelotti.
Rodrygo published a little something on The Guardian about him, and given that we had never had a foreign coach before, there was a lot of scrutiny over the decision to hire him. Carluccio, I mean. And Rodrygo, sort of. But that's beside the point.
The fact that he actually managed to learn Portuguese and the lyrics to our anthem has really endeared him to the wider public. Mind you, I'm Brazilian myself and to this day I haven't memorised all the words to the 19th century epic we have for an anthem :p
Even if we fall before the quarterfinals, he already managed to make a whole nation swoon  |
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| planetaryplayer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vector A
Best of luck against Netherlands or Morocco, depending on who wins tomorrow. I'll be rooting for you. |
Send more luck, that won’t be enough |
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| Vector A |
| Couple good ones lined up today, Brazil/Japan and Netherlands/Morocco. I'll be tuning in. |
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| Vector A |
| Yellow card for that?! Lol. Brazilian acting chops pay off, I guess. |
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| Vector A |
| More play-acting from Brazil. Get up, dude. :haha: |
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| Lira |
FINALMENTE! Meu Deus do Santo Céu... did it really have to be this nerve wrecking?
Edit: Japan's come a long way though, congrats to them. |
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| Vector A |
Oh well, Japan really went for it but they got outplayed. I don't see Norway or Ivory Coast stopping Brazil, either.
They're probably getting through at least to the semis, actually: their quarters will be against one of MX, DRC, EC, EN. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vector A
Oh well, Japan really went for it but they got outplayed. I don't see Norway or Ivory Coast stopping Brazil, either. |
If we face Norway, I'll look for a religion to convert to by Sunday and start praying as soon as possible :p
(Which is not to say I'm underestimating Ivory Coast, but they had a shakier group stage run)
| quote: | Originally posted by Vector A
They're probably getting through at least to the semis, actually: their quarters will be against one of MX, DRC, EC, EN. |
Unfortunately, I'm not sure we'll be able to break out of our current quarterfinal ceiling. We shouldn't have made ourself so vulnerable to counterattacks like we did in the first half. And, if we bump into England, that'll likely be the end of us :( |
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