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mathmatical question
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| kirbtastic |
| the odds of winning the new jersey pick 6 lotto is 1 in 13,983,816, but cant u say its also say its a 50/50 chance because the ticket u buy is either a winner or a loser .. i understand that u have many more chances of buying a loser ... but at the direct moment of purchasing a ticket i think you can describe your chances as 50%. the machine is going to spit out a winner or loser .. ive been arguing with my friend over this for a week now. |
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| Azareal |
It definetely isn't a 50% chance to win or lose. While it is true that 2 events may occur - that you either win with a ticket or lose with a ticket, the chance of actually winning with that ticket is non reflective upon the number of options available.
By your logic, the following would also be possible - that you will spontaneously turn into a cricket. Seeing as in the next second, either you WILL turn into a cricket or WILL NOT turn into a cricket - your logic states that the 2 options equivalates to a 50% chance of turning into a cricket. You haven't, you won't, and you never will.
The % chance of having a favorable outcome IS NEVER dependant on the total number of possible outcomes unless each outcome is EQUALLY possible. Such a case - rolling a die or tossing a coin.
Crystal clear?
~Azareal |
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| kirbtastic |
| u said it urself..i will never turn onto a cricket ..its impossible, but there is a chance that i will get a winning lottery ticket. can u give me an example with 2 feasible outcomes .. if u cant thats ok .. if im proven wrong i lose a hundred bucks |
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| reveal |
| if the chance of winning was 50%, then you would win every second time in the long run... which you, of course, wont... |
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| Azareal |
Thats just it. You never will turn into your cricket. Yet, by your logic, each second you have a 50% chance of turning into a cricket. Obviously, if this held true, there would be a lot less people and a lot more crickets in the world. I just used an impossible example because your method of proof - the 50% rule - says that this is in fact possible - when it definetely isn't. Effectively, this is just my way of proving that the odds cannot be 50%.
You need a concrete example?
By your rule, there is a 50% chance that Jessica Alba is standing outside your doorstep naked. She is either there. Or she isn't.
Now - we all know that she definetely isn't there - although there is the smallest smallest smallest possibility that she might be there naked on your doorstep - because there is some remote, infathomable chance. SHE NEVER WILL BE THOUGH! |
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| kirbtastic |
| quote: | Originally posted by Azareal
Thats just it. You never will turn into your cricket. Yet, by your logic, each second you have a 50% chance of turning into a cricket. Obviously, if this held true, there would be a lot less people and a lot more crickets in the world. I just used an impossible example because your method of proof - the 50% rule - says that this is in fact possible - when it definetely isn't. Effectively, this is just my way of proving that the odds cannot be 50%.
You need a concrete example?
By your rule, there is a 50% chance that Jessica Alba is standing outside your doorstep naked. She is either there. Or she isn't.
Now - we all know that she definetely isn't there - although there is the smallest smallest smallest possibility that she might be there naked on your doorstep - because there is some remote, infathomable chance. SHE NEVER WILL BE THOUGH! |
damn jessica u look fine nude..why dont u come inside and warm up .. we can get to know each other and get a little freaky ....
lol i understand ur point i said in my original post that i know that chances of getting a losing ticket far outways the chances of getting a winning one ... but at the most basic basic level i think the chances are 50 / 50 ..its either a winner or loser.. |
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| kirbtastic |
let me try to explain better
1. the ticket u are going to buy is a winner or a loser [50 /50]
2. then yes i agree with all of you the chances of it being a winner is [1 in 13 million something]
im talking about at the basic basic level |
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| Trance_Nut |
| quote: | Originally posted by kirbtastic
let me try to explain better
1. the ticket u are going to buy is a winner or a loser [50 /50]
2. then yes i agree with all of you the chances of it being a winner is [1 in 13 million something]
im talking about at the basic basic level |
This boils down to one thing in math called probability. The higher the probability the greater your chances are at winning. But with lotto the chances are well one in 13 million....... very very low probabilty.
Think of it this way.
Here in Illinois in the pick five lotto the odds of getting a series of 5 numbers exactly is outragious. Generally you think of this in terms of factorials. X = N! basically this means you take the number 10. 10! = 10*9*8*7*6*5 etc etc. how ever many numbers there are is the starting point then the factorial number is divisable by what is in the lotto itself.
As for your arguement... you are wrong. If your chances were 50/50
you would see the possibility of a 13 million lotto would be 1 outta 2 tickets. So sorry bud you lost money. Remember Probability. When you take stats in College you will know what i mean. |
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| TranceGiant |
| youve got a basket filled with 100 balls. 99 of them are red, 1 of them is blue. You randomly pick a ball. Of course the chance of it being a red one arent 50% but 99%, although there are only two choices/colors. |
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| cbxzcm |
| You're right, when you buy a lotto ticket only two conditions can happen, you either win or lose. But, just because exactly two different conditions can happen, you can't say that there is exactly a 50% chance that one of these conditions will be met. The number of conditions doesn't equate probability. |
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| kirbtastic |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trance_Nut
This boils down to one thing in math called probability. The higher the probability the greater your chances are at winning. But with lotto the chances are well one in 13 million....... very very low probabilty.
Think of it this way.
Here in Illinois in the pick five lotto the odds of getting a series of 5 numbers exactly is outragious. Generally you think of this in terms of factorials. X = N! basically this means you take the number 10. 10! = 10*9*8*7*6*5 etc etc. how ever many numbers there are is the starting point then the factorial number is divisable by what is in the lotto itself.
As for your arguement... you are wrong. If your chances were 50/50
you would see the possibility of a 13 million lotto would be 1 outta 2 tickets. So sorry bud you lost money. Remember Probability. When you take stats in College you will know what i mean. |
lol - thanks..actually im 24 and finished school a long time ago ... my point was not to find out about statistics or how to calculate them ... my point was to look at a question in a different way ..
if there are 2 possible outcomes [true and false] ur chances are 50/50. i wasnt getting into the probability of the statement being being true ot false
ie.
1. the ticket in my hand is a winner. [true or false]
this is a 50/50 statement
2. the ticket in my hand is a loser. [true or false]
this is a 50/50 statement
3. what are my chances that this ticket is a winner? [not a true or false statement] now u can give me ur probality speach and how to calculate odds.
i guess its not just a math question, but a philosophy question as well |
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| InsomnEac |
| when you say 50/50, you're referring to the chances (probability) of either outcome. so no, it's not a 50/50 chance. you can say there are two possible outcomes, that's it. |
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