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The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates (pg. 5)
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
occrider, who do you work for?
...seems like someone in the thread was suggesting you were at a financial company. Considering your knowledge, though, I'd rather hear that you work for a bureau!
<<------ Economist here who also happens to love EDM but never noticed this section on this site before as I'm not on here that often anymore. |
Hehe actually none of the above. I'm a consultant with a software company ;). I double majored in college though and one of those majors happened to be economics. I'm actually starting to get sick of consulting, and I'm considering going back to economics. I've already applied to various government agencies (bea, irs, labor department, etc.) to see if I can get hired as a junior economist. Hehe of course it would be a drastic pay cut, but money isn't everything. As it is, I'm only funding my knowlede from college education, and various periodicals I've subscribed to (economist/business week/etc.) along with some online sources such as think tanks and what not. Unfortunately demands from my job have caused me to fall behind on reading up on some of the latest studies and analyses. Oh well, what can you do ...
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No need to add anything to most of what's been said in here thus far as it has been quality. There were a couple things I felt the need to comment on, even though I only suggest slight adjustments. This is one of them...
I wouldn't say that 5.6% unemployment is close enough to full employment levels. The rest of the analysis surrounding this point (oversaturated in the 90s) I would have to agree with, though. I know I'm being nit-picky by pointing this out and suggesting we'd prefer it to be lower. Comparatively speaking, it is not bad at all, and it is relatively close to full. But I wouldn't say it actually is full or close enough. Even with adjustments, I'd like to see it closer to 4 than 6, speaking in broad terms.
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Yes I'm somewhat leaning towards full unemployment being somewhere closer to the 4's than the 6's as well. I most certainly wouldn't be satisfied with unemployment until it breaches 5.5% ... there's always going to be some uncertainty between the payroll and household survey. Despite the latest spike in the CPI, I think we can afford to keep interest rates low and hopefully add a few more jobs before we have to seriously worry about inflation.
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p.s. -- Economics rules! Great to find such an excellent discussion on a Trance music site!
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Agreed :)
Do you work for a think tank? Government? Anyway ...
Week Ending April 26
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 3.4%
FIRST TAKE: March durable goods blew through expectations, rising by 3.4%. Nondefense orders rose faster than expected.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 134.6
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 9.4% during the week ending April 16. This came despite a small increase in the index’s level from 134.2 to 134.6.
RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.5% in March, somewhat faster than prior expectations. Price increases among petroleum products and foods were largely responsible for overall inflation among finished goods. Excluding food and energy, core prices rose by a more modest 0.2%.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 353,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims declined by 9,000, to 353,000, last week. The decline was not as large as expected following the bump up attributed to the Easter holiday. The number for the previous week was revised up by 2,000, to 362,000. Continuing claims increased during the week ending April 10, to 3.02 million, from a revised 2.97 million.
RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.17
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) registered a 0.17 reading in March. This marks the seventh consecutive month the U.S. economy has surpassed its historical trend rate of growth. February was revised upward from 0.39 to 0.47, indicating a strong pace of economic growth.
RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 920
FIRST TAKE: Employers initiated 920 mass layoff events involving 92,554 workers last month. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while for the second consecutive month, the West region reported the highest number of initial claims.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,077 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground natural gas storage increased by 28 billion cubic feet for the week ending April 16, just in line with expectations. Thus, today’s data should have a neutral impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: California Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 66.9
FIRST TAKE: The California purchasing managers index climbed for the third consecutive quarter. The index reached 66.9 in the first quarter of 2004, its highest level ever; a reading of 50 or greater indicates expansion. All components of the index are showing strength.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 744.5
FIRST TAKE: Higher mortgage rates continue to place downward pressure on the demand for mortgages. Consequently, the MBA index softened last week to 744.5, a decline of 5.6%. The purchase index was nearly flat, while the refi index declined. The housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although the path downward may not be a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -17
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell three points in the latest week, effectively reversing the previous week’s gain. Consumer expectations, however, improved this month.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 295.6 MB
FIRST TAKE: Data on commercial crude oil stocks for the week ending April 16 are inconclusive. While the American Petroleum Institute recorded a sizable draw in crude oil stocks, the Energy Information Administration reported a modest build. Both reports showed a solid build in gasoline stocks.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 1.0%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales grew 1% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the latest week, according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth fell to 5.9%, the weakest in ten weeks, as comparisons got more difficult in the week ending April 17.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index rose 0.3% in March, meeting expectations. The index has increased 4.4% since reaching a low in March of last year.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.5
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence held high and steady last week. While confidence has changed little since the beginning of the year, it has been edging higher in recent weeks. Sales continue to strengthen, business conditions improve, and pricing has firmed. Hiring and investment in equipment and software are as strong as they have been since the survey began. Confidence is strongest in North America and Asia and among education, mining, and healthcare. It remains weakest in Europe, Latin America and among retailers, the travel industry and in government. Inventory investment has also recently weakened. |
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| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
Hehe actually none of the above. I'm a consultant with a software company ;). I double majored in college though and one of those majors happened to be economics. I'm actually starting to get sick of consulting, and I'm considering going back to economics. I've already applied to various government agencies (bea, irs, labor department, etc.) to see if I can get hired as a junior economist. Hehe of course it would be a drastic pay cut, but money isn't everything. As it is, I'm only funding my knowlede from college education, and various periodicals I've subscribed to (economist/business week/etc.) along with some online sources such as think tanks and what not. Unfortunately demands from my job have caused me to fall behind on reading up on some of the latest studies and analyses. Oh well, what can you do ...
Yes I'm somewhat leaning towards full unemployment being somewhere closer to the 4's than the 6's as well. I most certainly wouldn't be satisfied with unemployment until it breaches 5.5% ... there's always going to be some uncertainty between the payroll and household survey. Despite the latest spike in the CPI, I think we can afford to keep interest rates low and hopefully add a few more jobs before we have to seriously worry about inflation.
Agreed :)
Do you work for a think tank? Government? Anyway ...
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I thought I wanted to get a job such as that as a junior economist as well. I have "applied" to many different departments on USAJobs.com and can copy and paste a description of one of them in here if anyone would like.
If you're in DC maybe your experience is a different one than mine. I tried to email the USAJobs.com people about my problem. I want to entertain offers from many different departments and bureaus since the jobs are similar. The way they have it set up though is that in order to fully "apply" you have to electronically fill out a 200 or so part questionaire. I don't mind doing the work, but the questions are basically the same for every job. They let you save and copy your resume and other info for each job, but not the questionaire for some reason. I have not been told by them a potential solution to this other than filling out the questionairre in full for every single job I would like consider.
If you know of any way to circumvent this situation, please let me know. At this point, I may be more geared towards staying in Chicago and working here, anyway. Seems to me that the companies here (mostly banks) are showing more interest. Frankly, it also made me question how happy I would be if the departments themselves had as much inefficiency as the site with no consideration to improve the efficiency. As you know, being an economist, it's all about improving the efficiencies whenever possible.
Regardless, I will become a PhD economist in my life no matter where I begin my employment. But, I at least thought I'd prefer starting it in DC for someone like the BLS (although they aren't hiring right now they have said).
What do you think? |
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| DJ Fin |
occrider (and others, of course)...
if offered a chance to fix the interest received by your bank at a rate close to 7% within a period of 5 years, would you take it?
In other words, what do you foresee in the future for interest rate movements?
(for those unfamiliar with the terms, the Fed Rate is currently at 1% meaning that Prime Rate is at 4% ...a consideration though is that Prime is meant for the banks' best customers. Everyone else receives anything higher.) |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
I thought I wanted to get a job such as that as a junior economist as well. I have "applied" to many different departments on USAJobs.com and can copy and paste a description of one of them in here if anyone would like.
If you're in DC maybe your experience is a different one than mine. I tried to email the USAJobs.com people about my problem. I want to entertain offers from many different departments and bureaus since the jobs are similar. The way they have it set up though is that in order to fully "apply" you have to electronically fill out a 200 or so part questionaire. I don't mind doing the work, but the questions are basically the same for every job. They let you save and copy your resume and other info for each job, but not the questionaire for some reason. I have not been told by them a potential solution to this other than filling out the questionairre in full for every single job I would like consider.
If you know of any way to circumvent this situation, please let me know. At this point, I may be more geared towards staying in Chicago and working here, anyway. Seems to me that the companies here (mostly banks) are showing more interest. Frankly, it also made me question how happy I would be if the departments themselves had as much inefficiency as the site with no consideration to improve the efficiency. As you know, being an economist, it's all about improving the efficiencies whenever possible.
Regardless, I will become a PhD economist in my life no matter where I begin my employment. But, I at least thought I'd prefer starting it in DC for someone like the BLS (although they aren't hiring right now they have said).
What do you think? |
Yea I hate those damn questionaires. About 100 of the questions are simple repeats of the other 100 ... are they trying to catch you in a lie or something? Anyway, I know of no way to circumvent the tediousness of that process. And while the efficiency of a particular department can be questionable, I have no doubts that any type of coordination between government agencies is, by default, atrocious.
| quote: |
occrider (and others, of course)...
if offered a chance to fix the interest received by your bank at a rate close to 7% within a period of 5 years, would you take it?
In other words, what do you foresee in the future for interest rate movements?
(for those unfamiliar with the terms, the Fed Rate is currently at 1% meaning that Prime Rate is at 4% ...a consideration though is that Prime is meant for the banks' best customers. Everyone else receives anything higher.)
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I would probably try to fix any interest rates you can right now. Simply put, I doubt the Fed is going to lower interest rates any further and it's unlikely that they would given the current status of the economy. According to the latest producer price indexes and consumer price indexes, there are increases in year over year values. And while I haven't read the transcripts of Greenspan's latest statemnt after the fed meeting, but he said that the risks due to deflation are gone, and I heard somewhere that he left off a key phrase, such as "indefinetely" or something like that, in the decision to keep interest rates steady. I think many are forecasting an increase in rates either at the start of the summer or before the end of summer. At least you have some time to consider your decision ... the fed's not meeting again for a while I think. I would continue to follow the trend in CPI ... if there's another good jobs month and the cpi continues to trend upwards again, I would place my bets on a rate hike. |
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| occrider |
Week Ending May 2
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income grew 0.4% in March, and disposable income grew at the same rate. Spending rose 0.4%, below expectations, but spending was revised up in January and February. Wages grew 0.2%, their slowest growth of the year. The saving rate held steady at 1.9%.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 282.2
FIRST TAKE: New York City continues to improve. The NAPM-NY Business Conditions Index (BCI) accelerated in April and now stands at 282.2.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index's final value for April was 94.2, up from the preliminary value of 93.2, but below March’s 95.8. Both components fell from their March values and rose from their preliminary values.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 63.9
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI came in comfortably ahead of expectations in April, rising to a three-month high. This report, coupled with bullish numbers from other regional manufacturing surveys earlier this month, will boost expectations for next week’s ISM index.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 135.2
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose slightly to 9.5% during the week ending April 23. This came amid an increase in the index’s level from 134.5 to 135.2.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 2.5%
FIRST TAKE: Prices for agricultural commodities gained another 2.5% in April, hitting a record-high for the second consecutive month. Farmers received higher prices for milk, cattle, corn, and lettuce while lower prices were received for eggs, strawberries, hogs, and tobacco.
RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 1.1% in the first quarter of 2004, above expectations. Once again, benefit costs account for a significant portion of the hike, rising 2.4%, while wage cost acceleration is still very timid. Low wage costs are certainly a boon to corporate profits and testament to still-weak labor markets, but healthcare costs remain a serious concern.
RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 4.2%
FIRST TAKE: First quarter GDP growth is in line with our expectations, but undershoots elevated consensus. Headline growth was 4.2%. Most segments did well; weakness was concentrated in consumer durable goods (autos), business structures investment and state and local spending.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 338,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims declined by 18,000, to 338,000, last week. The decline was in line with expectations following the bump up attributed to the Easter holiday. The number for the previous week was revised up by 3,000, to 356,000. Continuing claims increased during the week ending April 17, to 3.013 million, from a revised 3.010 million.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 39
FIRST TAKE: The March help wanted index remained tepid, declining by one point to 39. A year ago, the reading measured at 39 as well. It bottomed out at 35 last May and has zigzagged since.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,155 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 78 billion cubic feet during the week ending April 23, slightly above expectations. Thus, today’s data will be marginally bearish for natural gas markets.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 748.0
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications increased a scant 0.5% last week to 748.0. This increase is the first in six weeks. Despite the continued rise in mortgage interest rates, purchase activity picked up solidly last week. The refi index continued to decline. The housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although the path downward may not be a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -13
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index jumped four points this week, more than reversing the previous week’s decline. Consumer comfort is now at a nine-week high.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.8 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks increased by 3.2 million barrels during the week ending April 23, according to the Energy Information Administration, but declined according to the API. The EIA reported a moderate build in motor gasoline stocks, while the API showed a substantial draw. Thus, the impacts of today’s data on petroleum markets will be mixed.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales slipped 0.5% on a seasonally adjusted basis in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth jumped to 7.1%. Overall, the index remains little changed since mid-February.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.48 Million
FIRST TAKE: Existing home sales for March advanced at their fastest pace in more than two years. While sales were expected to rise, the acceleration is stronger than anticipated. The 5.7% increase brings sales up to 6.48 million, the second highest ever. Low and falling mortgage interest rates of the winter helped to boost home sales. Additionally, firming consumer fundamentals are also driving demand. Despite the surge, first quarter sales are still slower than the previous.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 92.9
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence increased to 92.9 in April. Both components of the index rose in the month with the present situation component leading the way. The March value was revised up a slight 0.2 points to 88.5.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 73.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence fell for the third straight month in April. The UBS index of investor optimism is now at a six-month low.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,228,000
FIRST TAKE: Sales of new homes picked up again in March, and even more than expected. The 8.9% increase brings sales to a record high of 1.228 million units. Census, however, revised downward February sales. Low mortgage rates, combined with a strengthening economy, gave households the boost they need to step up home purchases.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 39.0%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to push higher, setting another record high in late April. Sales are strong and pricing, while still soft, is improving. Nearly all businesses are increasing their investment in equipment and software and an increasing proportion are hiring. Confidence remains measurably stronger in North America and Asia compared to Europe and South America, although confidence has improved across the globe. Manufacturers, healthcare and high-tech companies are notably upbeat. Retailers, and those in the travel industry and in government are more positive than just a few months ago, but remain comparatively less optimistic. |
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| Shakka |
| Wow. HUGE employment numbers this morning. Economic data continues to improve--probably right up til November! |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by Shakka
Wow. HUGE employment numbers this morning. Economic data continues to improve--probably right up til November! |
Indeed ... positive economic releases particularly with new payrolls. The previous month's figures were revised upwards as well. Hehe paradoxially the market took a tumble after the good jobs data was released. Greenspan is going to swoop down with a rate hike soon methinks.
Week Ending May 9
RELEASE: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey [United States]: -23.2%
FIRST TAKE: The April Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows still more pervasive loosening of lending practices, especially in Commercial and Industrial (C&I) lending.
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 124.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but the rate of acceleration in economic activity is leveling off. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.5 points for the month of March after a 0.5 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the third consecutive month after rising in nine consecutive months. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more even growth.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 288,000
FIRST TAKE: The economy created far more jobs than expected in April; payroll employment surged by 288,000. The March gain was revised up to 337,000. Meanwhile, the jobless rate slipped down a notch to 5.6%
RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. Future Inflation Gauge fell sharply to 117.1 in April, reversing about half of the increase from the previous month. The FIGs for other countries, whose data lag the U.S. by one month, all increased. Of particular note, the smoothed annualized growth rate for the Japanese FIG hit a 16-year high in March.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 2.7%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale sales growth surged past expectations, hitting a more than nine-year high in March. Inventory growth also bested the consensus estimate for the month.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 136.0
FIRST TAKE: The six-month growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 9.2% during the week ending April 30. This came despite a modest increase in the index’s level from 135.2 to 136.0.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $5.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: March consumer credit rose about in line with expectations, posting a $5.7 billion gain. Revolving posted slightly larger gains than nonrevolving.
RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 125.0
FIRST TAKE: Monster.com's on-line employment index jumped in April to a reading of 125, from 109 in March. The increase bodes well for tomorrow's employment report. The largest gains in listed job openings were in professional and technical services, real estate, healthcare, retail trade and finance & insurance.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 4.4%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 4.4% in April according to the ICSC chain store index, modestly below expectations. Growth was the weakest since December, although the shift in Easter was responsible for much of the slowing. Luxury retailers continued to outperform. This was the first month since last November that retailers did not consistently beat expectations.
RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 3.5%
FIRST TAKE: Preliminary productivity growth was 3.5% in the first quarter of 2004, matching expectations. Unit labor costs in the nonfarm business sector rose 0.5%, breaking a string of declines over the previous three quarters.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 315,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims fell sharply last week, falling to 315,000 - a three and a half year low. The number was well below consensus. The total for the prior week was revised up by 2,000, to 340,000.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,227 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 72 billion cubic feet during the week ending April 30, just in line with expectations. Today’s data will therefore have a neutral impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 780.9
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications increased by 4% last week to 780.9, the first substantial increase in seven weeks. The gain is evident in both components of the index. With mortgage interest rates rising, the housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although the path downward may not be a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index rose another two points this week, hitting a nearly three-month high.
RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 68.4
FIRST TAKE: Another new record for the ISM Non-Mfg Index. Business activity in the U.S. service sector picked up significantly in April, as the ISM Non-Mfg index gained 2.6 points to 68.4%. The number came in way ahead of expectations as the consensus anticipated a slight moderation in service sector expansion. Also, this marks the eighth time in the past year the index has remained above the 60% benchmark, indicating a rapid pace of growth in services activity.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: The American Petroleum Institute reported a moderate build in commercial crude oil inventories as well as motor gasoline stocks during the week ending April 30. The Energy Information Administration’s data have been delayed. Markets will wait for the EIA data for additional guidance.
RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 16.4 Million
FIRST TAKE: Vehicle sales were weaker in April than expected in part because automakers pulled back somewhat from incentive spending. Seasonally adjusted annualized light vehicle sales totaled 16.4 million units, down from 16.7 million in March. A pace of 17 million was expected.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales jumped 1.5% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. This pulled the index above the range it has been in since mid-February. However, year-over-year growth slipped to 6.5%.
RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: 4.3%
FIRST TAKE: March factory orders blew by expectations rising 4.3%, driven by a strong upward revision to March durable goods orders (from 3.4% to 5.0%).
RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 11%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com’s probability of recession rose further in April to 11% from a downwardly revised risk of 8% in March. This is the fifth consecutive month of rising risks. Although consumer confidence firmed, the moderation in equity markets, unemployment insurance claims and average weekly hours weighed on the economy. The yield curve has also turned up on the back of increased fears of a Fed tightening.
RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 72,184
FIRST TAKE: Announced layoffs rose to 72,184 in April, from 68,034 in March. Despite the increase, layoffs are trending down. The average for the first quarter of the year was 87,613, for example. Moreover, private industry layoffs are abating; government and the non-profit agencies accounted for the largest share of cuts in April.
RELEASE: FOMC Meeting [United States]: No Change
FIRST TAKE: The Federal Reserve Board took one big step towards a tightening in monetary policy. Policymakers are on track to raise interest rates at the August 6th FOMC meeting. Till then, the federal funds rate will remain at 1%.
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 4.5%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales advanced by 4.5% in March. On a year-over-year basis, chip sales continue to climb at a strong clip of 32%. Growth is being driven by corporate demand for IT equipment.
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 1.5%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending rose 1.5% in March, beating consensus calls for a modest 0.4% jump in building activity. February's preliminary estimate was revised upward from -0.1% to 0.4%, indicating a fairly strong first quarter.
RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 62.4
FIRST TAKE: The ISM Index was 62.4 in April, extending the streak of readings above the 60 mark to six months. The figure indicates that the expansion of manufacturing activity continues at a brisk pace.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 37.6%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence edged a bit lower at the end of April from the previous week’s record high. Confidence softened across all regions of the global economy and most industries. Confidence remains very strong, however, led by North America and Asia. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies as well. Confidence is notably weaker in Europe and South America and among retailers and travel companies, although it is measurably higher compared to this time last year. Sales remain strong and pricing has firmed. Nearly all businesses are increasing their investment in equipment and software and an increasing proportion are hiring. |
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| Yoepus |
and let me add my company's economic indicators:
RELEASE: Hospitality Sales [Texas]: 3.1% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Hotels have finally rebounded after 3 years of declining markets largely to the determent of Sept 11th. This is the second quarter for the past three years that shows positive growth. Many analyst predict this summer will have record setting growth rates.
RELEASE: Alcohol Sales in Bars and Restaurants [Texas]: 2.85% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Bars and Restaurants, the number one industry employer in the state, seem to be heading for the explosive growth rates last seen in 2001 before the economic boon and Sept 11th.
source (or shameless plug): http://www.virtuehospitality.com/texas.y
Sorry Occ, just trying to share a bit of your glory :D |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
and let me add my company's economic indicators:
RELEASE: Hospitality Sales [Texas]: 3.1% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Hotels have finally rebounded after 3 years of declining markets largely to the determent of Sept 11th. This is the second quarter for the past three years that shows positive growth. Many analyst predict this summer will have record setting growth rates.
RELEASE: Alcohol Sales in Bars and Restaurants [Texas]: 2.85% Q1
FIRST TAKE: Texas Bars and Restaurants, the number one industry employer in the state, seem to be heading for the explosive growth rates last seen in 2001 before the economic boon and Sept 11th.
source (or shameless plug): http://www.virtuehospitality.com/texas.y
Sorry Occ, just trying to share a bit of your glory :D |
I like the beer release ;)
Week Ending May 16
RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories rose 0.7% in March, beating market expectations for a more modest 0.5% rise for the month. This follows a February during which inventories shot up an upwardly revised 0.8%. It looks like the BEA’s initial estimates for inventory building’s contribution to Q1 GDP growth was too modest, so inventories will be a source of upward revisions when the BEA’s next GDP estimates are released at the end of the month. Business sales shot up 2.9% in March and the inventory to sales ratio fell to a record low.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices rose 0.2% in April and have increased 2.3% over the past year. Core inflation rose 0.3% for the month and now stands at 1.8% over the last year. The modest increases for this month should help quell anxiety about rising inflation in the near term.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production rose 0.8% in April, marking the third substantial increase in the first four months of 2004. Gains were substantial across market groups and industry groups, confirming that the March pause in activity was only temporary.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for May was 94.2, exactly the same as April’s value. A rise in the present situation component of the index was offset by a decline in expectations.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 135.7
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) climbed to 8.9% during the week ending May 7. This came amid a slight increase in the index’s level from 135.5 to 135.7.
RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales fell 0.5% in April, largely due to falling auto sales. Excluding autos, sales were down 0.1%. Core sales also fell 0.1%. Apparel, department and building supply stores were other significant losers while sporting goods stores and catalogers were the biggest gainers.
RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose by 0.7% in April, beating expectations largely due to higher energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core prices for finished goods rose by 0.2% as expected. Among intermediate goods, core prices rose by 1.1%.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 331,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose last week above consensus, to 331,000, though the trend still indicates a decline. Perhaps more importantly at this stage of labor market recovery is the decline in continuing claims, since it reflects renewed job creation. During the week ending May 1, 2.974 million people filed for continuing claims.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,303 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 76 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 7. The build was just in line with expectations. Thus, today’s storage data should have a neutral impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 742.2
FIRST TAKE: A sharp increase in mortgage interest rates pushed the MBA index for mortgage applications down by 5% last week to 742.2. The decline, however, occurred solely in the refi index. The purchase index increased to near its record high. With mortgage interest rates expected to continue rising, the housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although last minute homebuying will keep the path downward from being a straight one.
RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States]: -$46.0 billion
FIRST TAKE: The trade deficit increased more than anticipated during March. According to the BEA and Census Bureau, the trade balance increased $3.9 billion during March to $46.0 billion. Growth in imports were almost triple that of exports.
RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in April as petroleum prices fell and little else contributed to rising prices. Export prices rose 0.6% in the month due to a 2.6% increase in agricultural export prices. The report should help ease fears of rising import prices contributing to inflation in the near term.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -13
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell two points this week, reversing the previous week’s gain. Higher gasoline prices appear to be weighing on sentiment.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 300.0 MB
FIRST TAKE: The inventory data reported by the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration are bullish for petroleum markets overall. While the reports are contradictory regarding the direction of movement of crude oil stocks both reports showed a marked decline in motor gasoline stocks during the week ending May 7.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: $17.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified surplus for April was $18 billion, greater than CBO’s preliminary estimate of $15 billion. Through the first seven months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $282 billion.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 0.3% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index as traffic was reported strong at stores. Year-over-year growth increased to 7%.
RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 10.9%
FIRST TAKE: The March release of Job Opening and Labor Turnover confirms the strong March employment report, particularly the rebound in hiring activity. The number of hires rose by 441,000 in March to 4.5 million, while the number of separations was about unchanged at 4.1 million. The hire rate rose by 30 basis points to 3.5% and the job openings rate edged up to 2.3%, from 2.2% in February.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 13
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity continued to grow in the Fifth Federal Reserve District in April, but at a markedly slower pace than March. The shipments index fell 17 points to 13 and orders also dropped sharply. Employment gained for the third month in a row though the gain was small. Expectations remained positive.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.4%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains just off its record high. There has been a measurable improvement in hiring intentions, which are as strong as they have been since the survey began. This is prompting businesses to look for new space. Businesses are most upbeat in North America and Asia. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are also very optimistic. Confidence is notably weaker in South America, but is improving. Confidence is soft and lagging in Europe. Retailers and travel companies are also much less positive.
RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 43
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in the Tenth Federal Reserve District extended its expansionary streak. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production rose to an impressive 43 in April, up significantly from 31 in March and surpassing its six-year high of 35 in December 2003. |
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April Budget Report
The federal government incurred a deficit of $297 billion in the first six months of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates, $44 billion more than in the same period last year. Although revenues have risen by 2.5 percent compared with their level in the first half of last year, outlays have grown more quickly, increasing by about 6 percent.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $97 billion in February 2004, about $1 billion more than CBO's estimate based on the Daily Treasury Statements. Both receipts and outlays were about $4 billion lower than projected, primarily because refundable tax credits (which are recorded as outlays) were smaller than anticipated and tax refunds (which offset revenues) were correspondingly higher than expected.
The deficit in March was about $70 billion, CBO estimates, $11 billion more than the deficit incurred in the same month last year.
CBO estimates that the Treasury collected about $135 billion in revenues in March, about $15 billion (or 12 percent) more than it received in March 2003. Withheld receipts of individual income and payroll taxes were slightly more than $10 billion (or 8 percent) higher than in March 2003. The effect of two additional business days in March 2004 accounted for approximately $6 billion of that increase in revenues. Nonwithheld receipts were about $1 billion higher than in March 2003. Offsetting some of the rise in withheld and nonwithheld taxes were increases of almost $4 billion in refunds of individual income taxes. Net corporate receipts rose by more than $7 billion, mostly because refunds were down by a little less than $6 billion. Both the rise in corporate tax payments and the growth in withheld individual income taxes are consistent with a strengthening in the economy.
Outlays were $26 billion higher this March than they were last March, CBO estimates. A shift in payment dates and an accounting adjustment affected the growth in outlays. First, because March 1, 2003, fell on a weekend, about $10 billion in payments that would ordinarily have been made that March were instead made at the end of February. Second, changes in agencies' estimates of the subsidy cost of loans and loan guarantees made in previous years increased outlays by about $4 billion in March 2003 and by an estimated $1 billion in March 2004. Without those two factors, outlays in March would have grown by about 10 percent from 2003 to 2004. Adjusted for shifts in payment dates, defense spending was up by about $7 billion compared with the same month last year, and outlays for Medicare and Medicaid increased by a total of about $8 billion. Some of those increases were the result of two additional business days in March 2004.
The government recorded a deficit of $297 billion for the first half of fiscal year 2004, CBO estimates, about $44 billion more than for the same period last year. Receipts were about $20 billion higher and outlays about $64 billion higher than in the first six months of 2003.
In the first half of fiscal year 2004, receipts rose by about $20 billion, or 2.5 percent, compared with the same period in fiscal year 2003. That growth can be attributed to an increase of almost $23 billion in net corporate receipts, which were boosted by a $14 billion decline in refunds, and to a $3 billion rise in social insurance (payroll) taxes. Those increases were offset by a decline of about $7 billion in revenues from individual income taxes. Other sources of revenue were about $1 billion higher.
Withheld income and payroll tax receipts rose by about $8 billion, or about 1 percent, in the first six months of fiscal year 2004. Excluding the effects of the tax cuts enacted in May 2003 and of one extra business day, withheld receipts have grown by nearly 5 percent so far this year. Growth in withheld receipts was even higher in March, consistent with the strong employment report released last Friday. Nonwithheld receipts were about $1 billion lower this year than last year, while refunds of individual income taxes increased by about $12 billion.
Individual refunds (including refundable credits) have risen by 9 percent during this filing season, although the average refund is only about 5 percent above last year's level. By this point in the tax season, two-thirds of refunds have typically been processed. From the information now available, it does not appear that refunds will grow as much as CBO had expected.
Whether or not the behavior of refunds foreshadows higher-than-expected receipts for the fiscal year depends on the other major piece of the tax story for this year's filing season--final payments from individuals. The amount of those payments is still largely unknown because most of them are made around April 15 and processed over the following few weeks.
Outlays in the first six months of 2004 were 6 percent higher than in the same period last year, CBO estimates. Excluding the decline in outlays for net interest on the public debt, spending has increased by 6.6 percent.
CBO estimates that defense outlays through March were about 18 percent above the amount spent in the first six months of fiscal year 2003, which largely predated the war in Iraq. Military spending averaged about $36 billion a month in the second quarter of fiscal year 2004 (after adjusting for shifts in payment dates), about 4 percent higher than the amount spent in the first three months of 2004.
Medicaid outlays through March were 12.4 percent higher than in the first half of 2003, in part because a temporary increase in the federal matching rate took effect last April. Excluding the effects of that increase, Medicaid outlays in the first half of 2004 would have grown at an annual rate of 6 percent to 7 percent.
The growth in spending for other programs and activities was relatively flat in the first half of the year, inching up 1.5 percent from the amount spent in the first six months of 2003. Second-quarter outlays dipped $5 billion below the amount spent in the same quarter last year. Although that decline was partly due to the timing of revisions to estimates of the cost of certain credit subsidies, it also reflected lower payments for agricultural commodity programs and unemployment benefits. Reductions in those and other programs, together with higher earnings of the National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust, offset most of the increases in spending for education, temporary fiscal assistance to states, the Public Health Service, and other activities. |
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May Budget Report
Monthly Budget Review
A Congressional Budget Office Analysis
May 6, 2004
Based on the Monthly Treasury Statement for March and the Daily Treasury Statements for April
Through April, the federal government incurred a deficit of $284 billion for fiscal year 2004, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates, $82 billion more than the shortfall recorded in the same period last year. Although the deficit will widen as the year goes on, recent trends suggest that the deficit in 2004 will be less than the $477 billion that CBO projected in March. Outlays to date are consistent with CBO's expectations, but revenues are running $30 billion to $40 billion higher than anticipated.
The Treasury reported a deficit of $73 billion in March, about $2 billion more than CBO had projected on the basis of the Daily Treasury Statements. That difference occurred largely because spending was higher than expected for the Departments of Veterans Affairs, Justice, Agriculture, and State. Both revenues and outlays were $5 billion higher than expected in March because the Treasury recorded additional outlays for the earned income tax credit and correspondingly lower tax refunds to correct a reporting error that occurred in February. That adjustment did not affect the deficit.
The budget surplus in April 2004--an estimated $15 billion--was well below the $51 billion surplus recorded in April 2003. Much of that difference resulted from shifts in the timing of payments, accounting adjustments made in 2003, and calendar effects. Because May 1, 2004, fell on a weekend, about $11.5 billion in payments that would ordinarily have been made this month were instead made at the end of April. In addition, outlays in April 2003 included a net reduction of $5.6 billion to reflect changes in agencies' estimates of the subsidy cost of loans or loan guarantees made by the Export-Import Bank, the Department of Education, and the Small Business Administration. Excluding those two factors, outlays in April would have grown by about $10 billion (or 5 percent) from 2003 to 2004, rather than by the $27 billion that CBO estimates.
Receipts in April were about $9 billion, or 4 percent, lower than last year, largely because refunds of individual income taxes were almost $12 billion, or 30 percent, higher than they were last April. The calendar accounts for most of that difference. The Treasury reports the majority of refunds on Fridays, and April 2004 had five Fridays, which added roughly $10 billion to the amount of refunds recorded in that month. Taxes paid with tax returns also contributed to the decline in revenues; they were about $4.5 billion, or 4 percent, lower this April. In contrast, revenues from withhheld income and payroll taxes were higher by about $2 billion, or 2 percent, and net receipts from corporate income taxes were about $5 billion, or 29 percent, higher than they were last April.
CBO estimates that the government recorded a deficit of $284 billion for the first seven months of fiscal year 2004--an increase of $82 billion over the same period last year. Receipts were about $16 billion higher than last year's figure, but outlays grew by about $99 billion.
Through the first seven months of the fiscal year, receipts were $16 billion, or 1.5 percent, higher than in the same period last year. Most of the increase in revenues so far this year is attributable to receipts from corporate income taxes, which have risen by $28 billion, or about 45 percent, as a result of strong growth in corporate profits. In addition, receipts from social insurance (payroll) taxes have risen by $9 billion, or 2 percent, in large part because of higher payroll tax withholding from wage and salary income.
So far this fiscal year, receipts from individual income taxes are about $21 billion, or 4 percent, below the figure for the corresponding period last year. Most of that decline occurred because refunds of income taxes rose by $18 billion, boosted both by the tax cuts enacted last year and, temporarily, by the extra Friday this April. (May of this year will have one fewer Friday.) In addition, nonwithheld receipts through April fell by $8 billion, mostly reflecting tax liabilities for 2003. Withheld income taxes rose by $6 billion.
The Internal Revenue Service has completed tabulating payments from individual tax returns filed by April 15, and most refunds due to taxpayers have been disbursed. After the remaining refunds are processed by the end of May, CBO expects that net receipts from tax return filings--payments minus refunds--will be about $30 billion more than CBO projected in March.
The causes of the unexpected strength in net receipts from tax return filings cannot be fully understood until information from tax returns becomes available later this year and next year. CBO believes that the loss of revenue resulting from the 2003 tax cuts was offset, in part, by a number of factors, which may include the following: income was greater than expected in 2003; the effective tax rates on that income were higher than anticipated; and more of the taxes on that income were paid in 2004 than was projected.
The unexpected strength in receipts so far this year indicates that total revenues for fiscal year 2004 will probably be higher than CBO forecast in March. In addition to stronger-than-projected net receipts from tax return filings, receipts from corporate income taxes and withheld income and payroll taxes have also been slightly higher than expected. As a result, total revenues to date are $30 billion to $40 billion higher than CBO anticipated.
Outlays in the first seven months of fiscal year 2004 were about 7 percent higher than spending during the same period last year (after adjusting for payment dates that were shifted because of weekends or holidays). That rate of increase is about the same as the growth in spending from 2002 to 2003 and is consistent with CBO's current baseline projections for fiscal year 2004.
The rates of growth for defense spending, Social Security, and Medicare were similar to those recorded in 2003. After adjustments for accounting changes, defense spending increased by about 16 percent in 2003 and continues to grow at that rate this year. For the entire fiscal year 2004, defense outlays are likely to be close to 50 percent higher than they were in 2001.
Spending for Medicaid has risen at an annual rate of more than 12 percent so far this year, compared with an increase of about 9 percent in 2003. The 2004 figure is bolstered by a temporary increase in the federal matching rate, which took effect last April and expires at the end of this June. The growth rate for the entire year is likely to be between 8 percent and 9 percent. |
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