|
The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates (pg. 6)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| Yoepus |
Yea!! Long live the King! Long Live Alan Greenspan!
:p |
|
|
| MisterOpus1 |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
Yea!! Long live the King! Long Live Alan Greenspan!
:p |
Well cripes man, he's practically sleeping with Junior Bush over in the White House lately, how could we not see this comin'?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004May26.html
I mean, he's completely for Bush's permanent tax cuts, despite the consequences to the deficit, Medicare, and Social Security, I think Bush would be insane not to hire him back on. |
|
|
| occrider |
As long as the man keeps a tight grip on monetary policy, he could suck Bush's dick for all I care ... :p
Anyway, I suppose I've been shirking my duties long enough:
Week Ending May 31
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Personal income grew 0.6% in April, and disposable income grew 0.5%. Spending rose 0.3%. Both were in line with our expectations, and spending was revised up in March. Wages grew 0.5% and growth was revised up slightly for March. The saving rate increased to 2.4%.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 287.1
FIRST TAKE: The NY NAPM business conditions index rose for the ninth straight month in May, cresting 287 on a seasonally adjusted basis and reflecting strengthening business conditions in the New York metro area.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 90.2
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for May was 90.2, and an unusually large 4 points below the preliminary value (which matched April’s value). The expectations index suffered the biggest decline.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 68.0
FIRST TAKE: Bucking the recent trend among regional manufacturing surveys and confounding expectations, the Chicago PMI posted a huge gain this month. This report will surely boost what were until now rather deflated expectations for next week’s ISM index.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.8
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 7.4% during the week ending May 21. The index’s level was unchanged at 133.8.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: 5.6%
FIRST TAKE: Prices for agricultural commodities gained another 5.6% in May, establishing a new record for the third consecutive month. Producers received higher commodity prices for milk, hogs, cattle, and broilers. Lower prices were received for lettuce, eggs, corn, and tomatoes.
RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 4.4%
FIRST TAKE: First quarter GDP growth was revised up from 4.2% to 4.4%, on stronger than previously reported inventory investment, state and local spending and exports. Profits from current production rose $14.4 billion in the quarter.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 344,000
FIRST TAKE: The number of people filing for initial jobless claims last week exceeded consensus expectations; 344,000 displaced workers filed, while the previous week's number was revised upward by 2,000, to 347,000. Continuing claims remained below three million for the fourth consecutive week during the week ending May 15. The current level of claims corresponds to healthy labor market gains.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 38
FIRST TAKE: Despite evidence that the labor market is again creating jobs, the newspaper help wanted index declined by one point in April, to 38. The index had bottomed out at 35 last May. The index did improve in April in three of the nation's nine regions, however.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 632.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 3% last week to 632.4. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. Mortgage rates are rising and while some are opting for lower cost adjustable products, this increase in rates is softening the demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: -2.9%
FIRST TAKE: April durable goods orders fell a sharper than expected 2.9%, but this follows two boom months. Declines were broad based.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -16
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell five points this week, the biggest decline in 14 weeks. Rising gasoline prices appear to be the culprit, with the buying climate component plunging eight points.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,093,000
FIRST TAKE: The impact of rising mortgage rates is showing up in sales of new homes. New home sales fell a sharp 12% to 1.093 million units in April. This decline is the sharpest since 1994. Census did revise upward March sales data, but only slightly.
RELEASE: Monthly Mass Layoffs [United States]: 1,458
FIRST TAKE: Employers initiated 1,458 mass layoff events involving 157,314 workers last month. The manufacturing industry continues to account for the largest portion of mass layoffs, while the West region reported the highest number of initial claims for the third consecutive month.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Petroleum inventory data for the week ending May 21 are mixed. The American Petroleum Institute reported a small build in commercial crude oil stocks and a moderate build in motor gasoline stocks, whereas the Energy Information Administration reported flat crude oil stocks and a draw in motor gasoline stocks. Thus, today’s data will have a neutral effect on petroleum markets overall.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.5% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Warm weather in the East reportedly lifted sales, while cooler weather in the West was a drag. Year-over-year growth declined to 5.5%, the weakest growth since late January.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.64 Million
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, low mortgage interest rates of the winter and early spring helped boost existing home sales in April to a near record pace. Sales advanced by 2.5% to 6.64 million annualized units. Mortgage rates had not begun their ascent when many of the April homebuyers made decisions to purchase these homes. Concurrently, firming consumer fundamentals were also driving demand.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 93.2
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence was virtually unchanged in May, increasing 0.2 points to 93.2. Expectations rose while the present situation index fell, although both changes were tiny. As expected, rising energy prices, interest rate and inflation, the unsteady stock market and renewed terrorism concerns are offsetting improvements in labor markets.
RELEASE: Bankruptcy Filings [United States]: -1.8%
FIRST TAKE: Personal bankruptcy filings rose in the first quarter, but less than the normal seasonal amount, leading to the second consecutive decline in year-over-year bankruptcy filings and the biggest since the end of 2000. Business bankruptcy filings reversed course and grew. However, the growth in business filings was concentrated in chapter 11 filings in limited geographies and appears erroneous.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 71.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence fell for the fourth straight month in May. The UBS index of investor optimism is now at a seven-month low.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 37.9%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains close to the record high that has prevailed for the past two months. Confidence is strongest in North America and Asia and is improving in South America. European confidence continues to languish. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Hiring continues to strengthen, and labor costs and availability are a rising concern, although still much less so than sales, pricing, or the regulatory and legal environment.
Week Ending May 23
RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 15.5 billion
FIRST TAKE: As expected, unseasonally adjusted e-commerce sales fell sharply in the first quarter relative to the holiday-boosted sales of the fourth quarter. In a surprise, however, year-over-year growth accelerated to 28%, the best growth in five quarters.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 133.8
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 8.3% during the week ending May 14. This came amid a decrease in the index’s level from 135.6 to 133.8.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 345,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims rose more than expected last week, to a pace of 345,000. However, the import of the increase is mitigated by the decline in the four-week moving average, a more reliable indicator of trend. The moving average is now at its lowest level since the end of the recession. Continuing claims are moving down as well, falling to 2.943 million in the week ending May 8.
RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,396.0
FIRST TAKE: The most recent employment dynamics data indicate that during the third quarter of 2003, the scale tipped between job losses and gains, with gains exceeding losses for the first time since the recovery began. Job gains from opening and
expanding establishments totaled 7.4 million, while the number of job losses from closing and contracting establishments fell sharply to 7.3 million.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index rose 0.1% in April, in line with expectations. A large increase in the interest rate spread was the primary reason for the increase.
RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.64
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in at 0.64 in April, a sharp increase from March’s revised estimate of 0.23. Not only did this mark the eighth consecutive month the index showed the U.S. economy exceeding its trend rate of growth, but it is also the highest reading since last November.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,388 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 85 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 14, just shy of expectations. Thus, today’s data will have a marginally bullish impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 23.8
FIRST TAKE: Despite appearing to slow in the past month, a healthy expansion of manufacturing activity in the Third District continues. May's Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey is indicative of this, with a still elevated general diffusion reading of 23.8. However, this reading is much lower than the consensus estimate of 31.5.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 654.1
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 12% last week to 654.1. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. The 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate declined last week, but remains well above 6%. With mortgage interest rates expected to rise further, the housing market is set to slow in the coming quarters, although last-minute homebuying will keep the path downward from being a straight one.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -11
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index rose two points, reversing the previous week’s decline. Fears that confidence would be weighed down by record gasoline prices appear to as yet be unfounded.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 298.9 MB
FIRST TAKE: Stocks of motor gasoline showed a moderate increase during the week ending May 14, while data for crude oil stocks were contradictory. While the Energy Information Administration reported a small draw in crude oil stocks the American Petroleum Institute reported a build. Thus, this week’s inventory data will provide little guidance for petroleum markets.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.8% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index as warm weather was blamed for a slowdown in store traffic. Year-over-year growth declined to 6.2%, the weakest in a month.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.97 million
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, residential construction slowed in April, with a 2.1% decline in housing starts to 1.969 million annualized units. The Department of Commerce, however revised upward estimates for March and February. Starts fell off in April for both single- and multifamily units. The slowing in starts follows a March surge. The impact of rising mortgage interest rates may also be contributing to the slower April sales, although permitting is up for the month.
RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 30.2
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity in NY state slowed in May as the general business conditions index dropped below consensus expectations to 30.2. However, this is still a strong reading, indicating that expansion in the industry continues.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.4%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence remains at the record high that has prevailed since late March. Pricing, hiring and investment in new space all improved last week and are as strong as they have been since the survey began. North American and Asian businesses remain most upbeat. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are also very optimistic. Confidence is notably weaker in South America, but is improving. Confidence is soft and lagging in Europe. Government, retailers, and travel companies are also much less positive.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 69
FIRST TAKE: Still strong mortgage applications are keeping builders’ expectations buoyant. The NAHB index remains sturdy for May at a reading of 69, which is flat from April. Strong buyer traffic is driving the composite index. Expectations and current conditions are easing. |
|
|
| occrider |
Well I don't have all fo the days data yet, but it looks like the economy has added 248,000 new jobs in May.
If you've been following the jobs data, on the whole upward revisions have made the past 3 months rather stellar:
This is great news for the economy and Bush, but not so good news for the dems and Kerry. Dammit I predicted 6 months ago that the Dems should focus their campaign on national security and the Iraq issue because the economy was heading towards recovery. Now it's going to be tough shifting the focus away the successes and trying to sweep it under the table. |
|
|
| occrider |
Well I'll post economics data later today but it looks like we have two great indicators on both output and on the hiring front. More bad news for dems...
| quote: |
Industrial production jumps in May
Output at factories, mines and utilities posts its biggest gain in almost six years, Fed reports.
June 16, 2004: 9:31 AM EDT
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities surged in May, posting its biggest gain in almost six years, the Federal Reserve reported Wednesday.
The Fed said industrial production rose a larger-than-expected 1.1 percent in May after a 0.8 percent gain in April. The May increase was the biggest since a 2.0 percent rise in August 1998.
While the Fed said "unseasonably warm weather" caused output at utilities to surge, the gain in overall production was broad-based and reflected the continued revival in the U.S. factory sector, which began declining ahead of the 2001 recession.
Companies also operated at a faster rate in May, at 77.8 percent of full capacity, up from April's revised 77.1 percent capacity use rate and the highest pace since May 2001.
Wall Street had been expecting a smaller rise of about 0.8 percent, and capacity use to rise to 77.5.
http://money.cnn.com/2004/06/16/new...dex.htm?cnn=yes
|
| quote: |
Hiring Plans Near Boom Levels-Survey
Tue Jun 15, 2004 12:09 AM ET
By Anupama Chandrasekaran
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. companies are gearing up to create jobs at rates not seen since the height of the 1990s boom, a survey released on Tuesday showed, adding to evidence that job growth will keep the U.S. economic recovery rolling.
Following two months of strong government payroll reports, the survey is a boon to President Bush in the run-up to elections and will likely confirm expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates at the end of June as it moves to beat off emerging inflation.
Thirty percent of polled U.S. employers plan to add to their payrolls in the July to September period, the survey by Manpower Inc. showed. That is up from 20 percent a year earlier and 28 percent in the April to June period.
The survey hit its highest level of 35 percent in 2000, powered by the Internet-fueled boom.
Far fewer companies now plan to lay off employees, the survey showed, making the net year-over-year increase in employers planning to create jobs the largest in the history of the Manpower survey, which was started in 1976.
The survey, by the world No. 2 staffing company, polls 16,000 U.S. employers and is adjusted for seasonal spikes and dips. It is monitored by many economists for indications on corporate hiring sentiment.
"It is at levels that were in place pre-recession," Manpower Chief Executive Jeffrey Joerres said in a telephone interview. "As more stability is occurring in demand, they (companies) look at their future saying, 'I am feeling good.' They have gotten off the fence to start hiring."
The survey comes as job-growth begins to catch up with U.S. economic expansion, scotching talk of a 'jobless recovery' and bolstering Bush's claims that his policies create jobs, a key election battleground.
U.S. employers added a larger-than-expected 248,000 jobs in May, according to the Labor Department, following 346,000 in April and 353,000 in March. The 947,000 jobs created in the March-May period make it the strongest three-month stretch in four years.
The solid rate of job creation also makes it more likely that the Fed's policy-makers will ratchet up U.S. interest rates from current 1958 lows when they meet June 29-30.
The quick change in employers' outlooks comes as demand surges for products and services.
The percentage of companies that do not foresee changes in their workforce fell to 59 percent from 65 percent a year earlier and 62 percent in the second quarter. The percentage of employers intending to shrink their workforce fell to 6 percent from 9 percent in the year-earlier quarter, unchanged from the second quarter.
"If you look at the overall atmosphere, we still have geopolitical issues, we have an election year," Joerres said. "But companies are looking at their own business and saying, 'even with the noise I have to do something to expand my business."'
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle....04§ion=news
© Reuters 2004. All Rights Reserved.
|
I don't think that the dems will be able to stick with the platform of a 'jobless recovery' anymore. The economy is roaring back to life and I imagine greenspan is going to have to slap the brakes on it fairly soon. |
|
|
| occrider |
2 Weeks of Data:
Week Ending June 13
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 124.0
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, moderately strong growth will be observed for the global economy in the next six to eight months, but with a slower rate of acceleration. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area rose by 0.3 points for the month of April after a 0.2 point gain in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the third consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. This pattern was widespread across the constituent economies. This is typical of economies that are moving past the initial stage of recovery and into more level growth.
RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 1.6%
FIRST TAKE: A large jump in petroleum prices pushed the import price index higher by 1.6% in May. Excluding petroleum products, import prices rose 0.4%, which was somewhat stronger than expected. Export prices rose a more modest 0.3% as the previous surge in agricultural prices slowed.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 352,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims rose unexpectedly last week, to a total of 352,000. This is the highest total in seven weeks. The four-week moving average of 346,000 still remains below 350,000, which is consistent with job gains in excess of 200,000 monthly. Claims for the last week of May were revised up by 1,000, to 340,000. Continuing claims fell sharply at the end of May, to 2.88 million, a decline of 106,000.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,666 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 102 billion cubic feet during the week ending June 4, just slightly above expectations. Thus, today’s data will have a neutral impact on natural gas markets, which continue to be dominated by movements in the petroleum complex.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$62.5 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for May was $62 billion, slightly smaller than CBO’s preliminary estimate of $65 billion. Through the first eight months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $344 billion.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 568.8
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 9% last week to 568.8. Both the purchase and refi components of the index fell. Mortgage rates are rising and while some are opting for lower cost adjustable products, particularly on the purchase side, this increase in rates, is softening the demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Creditforecast.com Quarterly Household Credit Repo [United States]: 14.3%
FIRST TAKE: Households continued to borrow aggressively in the first quarter of 2004, although there has finally been a slowdown in mortgage borrowing and a slight pickup in bankcard borrowing as mortgage rates have risen. Credit quality is also improving slowly but steadily across loan products as the full positive impact of the improved economy is at last so far overriding the full negative impact of higher interest rates.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 0.2% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index, ending a string of three consecutive declines. Year-over-year growth improved to 5.5%. The shift in the Memorial Day holiday reportedly helped sales, and retailers noted some improvement in traffic.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.7%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to hover near the record high that has more or less prevailed since March. The most notable changes in recent weeks are more aggressive business hiring and measurably stronger South American confidence. Confidence is still strongest in Asia and North America and lagging substantially in Europe. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Entertainment, healthcare, government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Despite a palpable improvement in pricing, it remains businesses primary concern.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $3.9 billion
FIRST TAKE: Consumer credit growth cooled again in April, rising a little under expectations with a $3.9 billion gain. Revolving debt actually fell.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 22
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity continued to grow in the Fifth Federal Reserve District in May. Shipments and employment accelerated markedly, although several other measures of activity expanded at a slower pace than April. Expectations remained positive though they also moderated.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -19
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell a single point, its third straight decline. The index is now at an 11-week low.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 0.8%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale sales bested expectations once again in April, jumping 0.8%. In a surprise, however, inventories fell 0.1%, the first decline in eight months.
RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 10.1%
FIRST TAKE: The hiring rate declined in April to 3.3%, from 3.5% in March. The April rate still bests hiring activity prior to that. However, the layoff rate also declined in April, to 1.0%. Thus, the combination of layoffs and hiring is consistent with net employment gains reported last week.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 302.1 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded a build during the week ending June 4, according to the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Motor gasoline stocks also showed a build. Thus, today’s data will have a bearish impact on petroleum markets.
Week Ending June 6
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 4.1%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales advanced 4.1% in April. On a year-over-year basis, chip sales rose almost 37%, the strongest increase since late 2000. Recent strength in demand for semiconductors is showing no signs of abating.
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: 1.3%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending soared 1.3% in April, blowing away consensus calls for a modest 0.4% rise in building activity, and setting the stage for a strong start to the second quarter. March’s already strong preliminary estimate was also revised up sharply.
RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 62.8
FIRST TAKE: The ISM index is still showing robust growth in the manufacturing sector with a reported figure of 62.8 for May. The reading for May marks the seventh consecutive month the index has been above 60.
RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 73,368
FIRST TAKE: The number of announced job cuts increased in May to 73,368 from 72,184 in April. Despite the increase, job cuts announcements are well below the 100,000+ levels that prevailed during the recession and through 2003. Retail trade and telecommunications accounted for the largest numbers of cuts.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 38.6%
FIRST TAKE: Global business confidence continues to hover near the record high that has more or less prevailed since March. The most notable changes in recent weeks are more aggressive business hiring and measurably stronger South American confidence. Confidence is still strongest in North America and Asia and lagging substantially in Europe. Manufacturers, high-tech and most recently, mining companies are very optimistic. Government, retailers, and travel companies remain less positive. Despite a palpable improvement in pricing, it remains businesses primary concern.
RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 17.8 Million
FIRST TAKE: Vehicle sales were much stronger than expected in May, climbing to 17.8 million units on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis. This follows several lackluster months. Sales of both cars and trucks rose handily.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 624.6
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index for mortgage applications declined by 1.2% last week to 624.6, led by a decline in the refi index. The purchase index increased modestly. Mortgage rates declined slightly, but remain well above where they stood a few weeks ago, softening the overall demand for mortgages. Mortgage interest rates are expected to rise further, slowing the housing market in the coming quarters.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.5%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell 0.5% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index, the third consecutive decline. Year-over-year growth declined to 5.0%, the weakest growth since late January. High energy prices and related weak consumer confidence are being blamed for the slowing.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -18
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index slipped another two points this week. The index is now at a ten-week low.
RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 11%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com’s probability of recession held steady in May at 11%. This moderation comes after five months of rising risks. Moderate improvements in consumer confidence and the stock market helped stave off a further decline in risks. Unemployment insurance claims continue to decline as well. On the whole, risks remain weighted towards the upside.
RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 128
FIRST TAKE: After rising by 16 points in April, the Monster Employment Index rose by another three points in May, to a reading of 128. The largest increases in openings are in such fields as Management, Installation/Maintenance, Education/Training, Architecture/Engineering, and Production, while the largest number of available jobs are in sales, business & financial operations, management, and administrative support positions.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 5.7%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose 5.7% in May according to the ICSC chain store index, above expectations. This provides further evidence that the April weakness was a pause following strong early Easter buying and that high gasoline prices are having only a limited impact on spending. Warehouse clubs led though luxury retailers continued to perform well.
RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 3.8%
FIRST TAKE: Revised productivity growth came in at 3.8% in the first quarter of 2004, higher than the previous 3.5% preliminary estimate. Manufacturing productivity was revised down, due to a drop in non-durable manufacturing productivity. Real hourly compensation and unit labor costs were revised up.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 339,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims declined, as expected during the last week of May, to a total of 339,000. The previous week's total was revised up by 1,000, to 345,000. Continuing claims rose to 3.003 million during the week ending May 22. Continuing claims rose above 3 million for the first time in five weeks. The increase is consistent with higher initial claims in recent weeks.
RELEASE: Factory Orders (SIO or M3) [United States]: -1.7%
FIRST TAKE: Factory orders fell by a larger than expected 1.7% in April. The decline in durable goods orders was revised to be an even larger 3.2%.
RELEASE: ISM Non-Mfg.Index [United States]: 65.2
FIRST TAKE: As expected, the pace of expansion softened a bit in the U.S. services sector as the ISM Non-Mfg Index fell from April's record high of 68.4 down to 65.2 in May. Nonetheless, this marks the index's fifth consecutive month above 60, which still indicates a very strong expansion in the nation's service-producing industries.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 1,564 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 87 billion cubic feet during the week ending May 28, slightly above expectations. Today’s data will have a modest impact on natural gas markets, which continue to be dominated by movements in the petroleum complex.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 301.7 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks showed a moderate increase during the week ending May 28 according to the Energy Information Administration. Stocks of motor gasoline also recorded a build. Thus, today’s data should have a moderately bearish impact on petroleum markets. The American Petroleum’s Institute’s report has been delayed. Markets will look for confirmation of the EIA’s data once the API data become available. |
|
|
| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
Well I'll post economics data later today but it looks like we have two great indicators on both output and on the hiring front. More bad news for dems...
I don't think that the dems will be able to stick with the platform of a 'jobless recovery' anymore. The economy is roaring back to life and I imagine greenspan is going to have to slap the brakes on it fairly soon. |
just as additional conjecture...
I'd like to disagree with the first assessment and agree with the second.
1st-I don't think the signs of positive indicators should be a problem for the dems. The (essentially) cyclical nature of our economy suggests that we were going to recover from what were significant losses. This is much the same way that the losses should have been predictable and were the result of hasty growth.
2nd-June 30th -- 1/4 point increase in the Fed Rate! |
|
|
| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by Yoepus
Yea!! Long live the King! Long Live Alan Greenspan!
:p |
What do you all think about his upcoming retirement? (Q1, 2006)
Any ideas about who should assume the Chairmanship?
What effects do you think it will have on the various markets, if any? |
|
|
| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
just as additional conjecture...
I'd like to disagree with the first assessment and agree with the second.
1st-I don't think the signs of positive indicators should be a problem for the dems. The (essentially) cyclical nature of our economy suggests that we were going to recover from what were significant losses. This is much the same way that the losses should have been predictable and were the result of hasty growth.
2nd-June 30th -- 1/4 point increase in the Fed Rate! |
Heh well naturally those well versed in economics such as you or I, realise that the recovery was, in part, due to the cyclical nature of the business cycle. But the average American doesn't comprehend the economics of the business cycle and bubbles. They approach the issue with a simple minded view that fiscal policy is the ultimate determinant of the direction the economy is taking. Therefore when people inaccurately blamed Bush for the recessionary retreat from the bubble economy in 2000, they will inaccurately praise Bush for the rapid recovery of a once timid yet inherentely healthy economy. Of course I personally argue that the tax cuts had a role as an accelerant, however, that is a different discussion altogether. Therefore good news in the economy is bad news for the dems as the public will erroneously attribute all economic progress to whatever administration is in power. |
|
|
| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
What do you all think about his upcoming retirement? (Q1, 2006)
Any ideas about who should assume the Chairmanship?
What effects do you think it will have on the various markets, if any? |
I don't even understand why there are term limits for the fed chairman post. I don't think the markets are going to be too happy heh ... |
|
|
| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by MisterOpus1
Well cripes man, he's practically sleeping with Junior Bush over in the White House lately, how could we not see this comin'?:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dy...-2004May26.html
I mean, he's completely for Bush's permanent tax cuts, despite the consequences to the deficit, Medicare, and Social Security, I think Bush would be insane not to hire him back on. |
Did you guys see the Fed Quiz available on there??
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-sr...zes/fedquiz.htm
I won't comment on it just yet. |
|
|
| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
Heh well naturally those well versed in economics such as you or I, realise that the recovery was, in part, due to the cyclical nature of the business cycle. But the average American doesn't comprehend the economics of the business cycle and bubbles. They approach the issue with a simple minded view that fiscal policy is the ultimate determinant of the direction the economy is taking. Therefore when people inaccurately blamed Bush for the recessionary retreat from the bubble economy in 2000, they will inaccurately praise Bush for the rapid recovery of a once timid yet inherentely healthy economy. Of course I personally argue that the tax cuts had a role as an accelerant, however, that is a different discussion altogether. Therefore good news in the economy is bad news for the dems as the public will erroneously attribute all economic progress to whatever administration is in power. |
commenting (and seemingly contradicting on the surface) on what you've posted would begin a dialogue that could span a dozen pages or so with both of us still believing what we did before, but perhaps with a more pleasant understanding of the differing viewpoint. I doubt anyone wants that, but I'd be willing to give it a go! :p (I also just wanted to make a 5 line sentence cuz they're so much fun)
so instead of "jacking" the thread, I'll just smile and nod for the folks. :) |
|
|
|
|
