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The State of the 2004 US Economy with Weekly Updates (pg. 7)
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| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
I don't even understand why there are term limits for the fed chairman post. I don't think the markets are going to be too happy heh ... |
Well, he'll be 80 soon after and apparently he wants to leave before then. Just think... He will have been of age to receive Social Security or retirement for 15 years (or 18 years depending on how you look at it) at that point! He was practically a Senior Citizen when he assumed the position. |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
commenting (and seemingly contradicting on the surface) on what you've posted would begin a dialogue that could span a dozen pages or so with both of us still believing what we did before, but perhaps with a more pleasant understanding of the differing viewpoint. I doubt anyone wants that, but I'd be willing to give it a go! :p (I also just wanted to make a 5 line sentence cuz they're so much fun)
so instead of "jacking" the thread, I'll just smile and nod for the folks. :) |
Hehe well I agree that even if we argued for a dozen pages or so, we wouldn't arrive at a concrete conclusion since economics is theoretical at best with contradictory arguments to any issue. I welcome any economics debate however. I haven't studied it for some years so I'm not exactly up to date on the most recent studies. I think the last good economics debate I've engaged in was the merits (or lack thereof) of Reaganomics with MisterOpus. :p |
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| .montecarlo. |
| what sort of project are you working on occrider? seems like a pretty ambitious undertaking... i just look to yield curves (click) and forward exchange rates (click) to find out where things are going. |
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| DJ Fin |
| quote: | Originally posted by occrider
Hehe well I agree that even if we argued for a dozen pages or so, we wouldn't arrive at a concrete conclusion since economics is theoretical at best with contradictory arguments to any issue. I welcome any economics debate however. I haven't studied it for some years so I'm not exactly up to date on the most recent studies. I think the last good economics debate I've engaged in was the merits (or lack thereof) of Reaganomics with MisterOpus. :p |
lol
the positive side to debt financing? This is a HUGE issue for me right now that I am attempting to be open minded about. So, I am paying close attention to the rationale behind it while I am reading. To this point, it seems like the qualifier would be keeping the ratio below 5% of GDP for a developed country that is considered a "safe haven" like the United States. The key there is not to go overboard, though, and I haven't used that qualifier and others to reassess that portion of Reaganomics. My gut feeling is that I've never really liked the "trickle down" economics theory for a few solid reasons. I'm willing to explore it further though. |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ Fin
lol
the positive side to debt financing? This is a HUGE issue for me right now that I am attempting to be open minded about. So, I am paying close attention to the rationale behind it while I am reading. To this point, it seems like the qualifier would be keeping the ratio below 5% of GDP for a developed country that is considered a "safe haven" like the United States. The key there is not to go overboard, though, and I haven't used that qualifier and others to reassess that portion of Reaganomics. My gut feeling is that I've never really liked the "trickle down" economics theory for a few solid reasons. I'm willing to explore it further though. |
Well I would never argue that debt financing is an effective tool for most economic situations. I would argue, however, that debt financing was an effective (and necessary tool considering the geo-political conditions at the time) that resulted in definite negative ramifications yet, in aggreggate, was ultimately successful all things considered. Furthermore, Reagan never intended for debt financing to be continued indefinitely. Rather the intended goal was for future administrations to utilize the subsequent economic stability to curb spending.
At any rate, I apologize for my lack of maintenance of economics data. I'm still transitioning into my new job which has more or less thrown me off balance with respects to collecting data and posting in general. I have to demonstrate competance before I start goofing off :p |
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| occrider |
Weekly updates are back.
Week Ending July 25
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.2
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 1.1% for the week ending July 16. The decline comes on the heels of a small drop in the index’s level from 131.5 to 131.2.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 617.9
FIRST TAKE: Mortgage demand is slowing. The MBA index declined for the week ending July 16, 2004. The 4.0% decline brings the composite index down to 617.9. Both components of the index are falling. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. Purchase activity, however, remains quite strong.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady in the latest week after four consecutive gains. The index remains at a five-month high. Assessments of the economy and personal finances improved in the latest week, while assessments of the buying climate weakened.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 299.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: According to the American Petroleum Institute, there was a very small increase in crude oil stocks for the week ending July 16, while the Energy Information Administration reported a 1% decline in crude stocks. Both data sources showed an increase in gasoline stocks for the week, which should put further downward pressure on gas prices.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales remained range-bound, rising a slight 0.2% in the latest week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth slumped to 3.3%, the slowest growth since early last August. Cool weather and increasingly difficult comparisons continue to be blamed, although high energy prices and weakened consumer cash flow are also responsible.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.80 million
FIRST TAKE: In June, residential construction tumbled harder than it has since the beginning of 2003. The unexpectedly large decline of 8.5% brings total starts down to 1.802 million annualized units from a slightly upwardly revised May reading. Single-family starts took the biggest hit. Permit issuance is down as well.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 67
FIRST TAKE: The NAHB index softened a bit in July, but remains sturdy at a reading of 67. Still strong mortgage applications are keeping up builders’ expectations. Weakening is particularly evident in the outlook, with the traffic of prospective buyers index and the expectations index falling. |
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| occrider |
Week Ending August 1
RELEASE: GDP [United States]: 3.0%
FIRST TAKE: Gross domestic product rose at a smaller than expected 3.0% in the second quarter. Business investment actually strengthened a bit last quarter relative to the first quarter of the year, as did home construction. However, consumer spending slowed considerably, posting just a 1.0% gain for the quarter.
RELEASE: NAPM - NY Report [United States]: 302.5
FIRST TAKE: The New York City economy is building momentum according to the NAPM-NY Business Conditions Index (BCI). The headline figure expanded nearly 4% month-over-month in July and now stands at 302.5.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 96.7
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index final value for July was 96.7, up only slightly from June’s 95.6 and the preliminary 96.0. Both components of the index were up from their preliminary values although on the expectations index gained compared to June.
RELEASE: Chicago PMI [United States]: 64.7
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago PMI surged in July to 64.7, far surpassing expectations for a more modest rebound. Coupled with other outsized regional reports, this bodes well for a strong ISM reading on Monday.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.1
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 0.9% for the week ending July 23. The decline comes on the heels of a marginal drop in the index’s level from 131.2 to 131.1.
RELEASE: Agricultural Prices [United States]: -4.7%
FIRST TAKE: Agricultural prices tumbled 4.7% in July as prices for most cash crops have begun to decline in response to forecasts of potential record yields. Cattle and dairy prices also slipped in July. Still, from a historical perspective the pricing environment for farmers is still quite good as the topline price index is 16% ahead of last year.
RELEASE: Employment Cost Index [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Employment costs accelerated by 0.9% in the second quarter of 2004, in line with our forecast. Benefit cost increases continue to lead the charge, accounting for over half the increase in total costs, while wage cost increases remain timid. Low wage costs suggest persistent weakness in the labor markets, even as soaring benefit costs remain a serious concern to employers.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 345,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial jobless claims exceeded expectations by 5,000, totaling 345,000 for the week ending July 24. Continuing claims have been quite volatile of late, rebounding to 2.96 million in the week ending July 17, having fallen to a post-recession low of 2.786 million during the prior week.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 38
FIRST TAKE: Newspaper help wanted index dropped one point in June, to 38. It is only two points higher than its cyclical low of 36 reached a year ago. It is unlikely that the Conference Board measure provides a complete picture of labor demand.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,297 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground natural gas storage increased by 70 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 23. The build was just below expectations, which had called for net injections of 75 Bcf. Thus, today’s inventory data should be neutral to slightly bullish for natural gas markets. However, natural gas markets remain dominated by movements in the volatile petroleum complex.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 621.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index increased a scant 0.6% to 621.4 for the week ending July 23, 2004. The refi and purchase indexes are moving in opposite directions, but for both components, the change from the previous week is small, if not negligible. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. Purchase activity, however, remains quite strong.
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Another disappointing durable goods orders release. While the 0.7% advance reversed two months of declines, the gain was half expectations. In fact, were it not for a large increase in orders of defense aircraft, the topline would have fallen yet again.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -7
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index held steady at -7 for the third consecutive week after four weeks of gains. The index remains at a five-month high. Assessments of personal finances improved in the latest week, while assessments of the buying climate weakened.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales remained range-bound, rising a slight 0.2% for the second consecutive week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth improved to 3.8% and sales were reportedly on to above plan for most retailers as warmer weather reportedly boosted summer sales.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,326,000
FIRST TAKE: In line with expectations, new home sales declined in June. New home sales declined by 0.8% to 1.326 million annualized units from May. Census also revised upward May data by 2%. The slower sales reflect the slowing in June’s mortgage applications index and softening in builders’ view of current conditions. Nonetheless, the pace of new sales is still quite robust.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence [United States]: 106.1
FIRST TAKE: The Conference Board index of consumer confidence surged again in July to 106.1, up from an upwardly revised 102.8 in June. That was its highest value since June 2002. The gain was led by the expectations component of the index, which was up over five points. The present situation component increased less than a point.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 88.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence slipped in July. The UBS index of investor optimism fell seven points on modest declines in investor assessments of both the economy and their personal finances.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.95 Million
FIRST TAKE: The rush to buy before mortgage rates move up further continues to impact sales of existing homes, which hit another record in June. Existing home sales gained by 2.1% from May to hit 6.95 million units.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 36.1%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence remains strong, but appears to have moderated in recent weeks, consistent with the overall slowdown in economic activity. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, although both areas are off their highs. Spirits continue to lag in continental Europe, and appear to be deteriorating in South America. Mining, high-tech and business service firms are actually more upbeat than previously. Most other industries display flat to lower optimism. Expectations have measurably weakened, however, as there has been a notable erosion in responses to the question regarding expectations six-months hence. Previously giddy manufacturers, while still very positive, have turned measurably more cautious in recent weeks. |
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| occrider |
Data for last week. Abysmal payroll numbers and a downward revision in last month's payrolls. Paradoxically, the household survey registered a drop in the unemployed. My estimation is that unemployment probably remained constant all things considered and the discrepancy is due to the smaller sampling size of the household survey. High energy prices are continuing to cut into consumer spending and threaten inflation. It will be curious to see what the Federal Open Market Committee decides to do today. In my opinion, they should proceed with the interest rate hikes. Despite the jobs data, all other underlying indicators indicate a hiccup.
Week Ending August 8
RELEASE: OECD Composite Leading Indicators [OECD]: 103.8
FIRST TAKE: According to the OECD, fairly steady aggregate growth is in store over the next six to eight months, though there are regional disparities. The Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) for the OECD area increased 0.1 points for the month of June, after falling 0.1 points in the previous month. The six-month rate of growth fell for the fifth consecutive month after an upward trend that began in April 2003. Global growth has peaked for the cycle, but a sharp deceleration is not imminent.
RELEASE: Employment Situation [United States]: 32,000
FIRST TAKE: Payroll employment gains were far weaker in July than expected with only 32,000 net new jobs created. The weak result was mainly due to lackluster service job creation; manufacturing employment rebounded. Moreover, the weak June total was revised down, from 112,000 to 78,000 net new jobs. Nonetheless, the unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate survey, declined by 10 basis points, to 5.5%.
RELEASE: ECRI Future Inflation Gauge [United States]: 0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. future inflation gauge (FIG) rose to 117.5 in July, but did not fully reverse the June decline. Most other FIGs, where data lag the U.S. by one month, fell in June. Crude material prices, which have been falling recently, played a significant role and were mentioned as putting downward pressure on most indices in this report.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.9
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) continued on its downward path, dropping to 0.1% for the week ending July 30. The decline comes as the index’s level increased from 131.9 to 131.0.
RELEASE: Consumer Credit (G19) [United States]: $6.6 billion
FIRST TAKE: June consumer credit rose by $6.6 billion, just a shade over expectations. Revolving growth held up, but nonrevolving growth fell.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales [United States]: 3.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a weak 3.1% in July according to the ICSC chain store index, only slightly better than June’s 3.0% (revised), and the second weakest pace of the year. Difficult comparisons due to tax rebate checks last year, high gasoline prices, shifting sales tax holidays and weather were blamed for the weakness. Sales were generally mixed relative to expectations with apparel and footwear stores suffering while and luxury retailers and wholesale clubs performed well.
RELEASE: Monster Employment Index [United States]: 134
FIRST TAKE: Not surprisingly, the Monster Employment Index eased slightly in July, reflecting the letup in seasonal hiring. The index reading fell to 134 from 136 in June. Because the series is not seasonally adjusted and because there is insufficient history to the data, it is difficult to tease out the cyclical factors in this report.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 336,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 336,000 last week, slightly below consensus estimates. The previous week's total was revised higher by 2,000 to 347,000. As expected, continuing claims fell again to 2.911 million. The latest figures do not change the story of a recovering labor market.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,380 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 83 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 30. The build was just in line with expectations, which had called for a build of 84 Bcf. Thus, today’s data should have a neutral effect on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 336,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 336,000 last week, slightly below consensus estimates. The previous week's total was revised higher by 2,000 to 347,000. As expected, continuing claims fell again to 2.911 million. The latest figures do not change the story of a recovering labor market.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,380 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 83 billion cubic feet during the week ending July 30. The build was just in line with expectations, which had called for a build of 84 Bcf. Thus, today’s data should have a neutral effect on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Vehicle Sales - AutoData [United States]: 17.3 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, vehicle sales rebounded in July supported by stepped up incentive spending. Vehicle sales totaled 17.3 million units, up from a disappointing pace of 15.4 million in June. The July figure even exceeded the average for the first six months of the year.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales rose a slight 0.2% for the third consecutive week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. However, year-over-year growth slowed to 3.1%, the slowest in exactly a year as comparisons became more difficult.
RELEASE: Personal Income [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer spending tumbled 0.7% in June while both personal and disposable income rose 0.2%. Wages decreased slightly and the saving rate rose to 2.0%. Data were revised back to the start of 2001.
RELEASE: Business Employment Dynamics [United States]: 7,646
FIRST TAKE: Fourth quarter 2003 gross flow data reveal that job gains picked up relative to the third quarter, to 7.646 million, from 7.396 million in the third quarter. The net gains were due to stronger gains, while cuts eased down only slightly, from 7.324 million to 7.302 million. However, the number of new jobs created was still well below the levels of prior years.
RELEASE: Risk of Recession [United States]: 20%
FIRST TAKE: Economy.com’s probability of recession shot up in July to 20%, from June’s upwardly revised 12% level. The flattening out of the yield curve due to the Fed rate hike in June was responsible for almost the entire shift. Weakness in equity markets and housing markets didn’t help either. Strong improvements in consumer confidence and the reduction in unemployment insurance claims are positive.
RELEASE: Challenger Report [United States]: 69,572
FIRST TAKE: Job cutting activity in July remained around the same range as in the past few months. Companies and public entities announced cuts affecting 69,572 in July, slightly higher than the 64,343 announced in June. The average for the last six months is 70,791. The increase in July was driven by an increase in cuts in the financial services, automotive industry, consumer products, retail trade, and insurance.
RELEASE: Semiconductor Billings [United States]: 2.8%
FIRST TAKE: Global semiconductor sales rose 2.8% in June, leaving them 40.3% higher than last year at this time. Sales of both DRAMs and chips used for wireless communications grew solidly in the second quarter. The majority of demand continues to flow from the Asia-Pacific region where sales grew by 4.9% on the month.
RELEASE: Construction Spending (C30) [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: Construction spending decreased 0.3% in June, falling short of both the consensus estimate and Economy.com's forecast. The preliminary estimate for May was revised down from 0.3% to 0.1%. Of the three major components, public sector construction was the only one to post a measurable gain, expanding 0.2% between May and June.
RELEASE: ISM Index [United States]: 62.0
FIRST TAKE: The ISM index rebounded in July to 62.0 and extended the streak of readings above 60 points to nine months. Equally important, the prices paid index fell below 80 for the first time since January, indicating that pricing pressures from industrial inputs are lessening.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 35.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence remains strong, but it has notably softened in recent weeks. Expectations regarding prospects six-month hence have in particular weakened, falling to a level last seen a year ago. Sales and hiring intentions have also begun to edge lower. Previously giddy manufacturers, while still very positive, have turned measurably more cautious in recent weeks. Government, retailers, and travel companies also continue to be less positive. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, among construction and real estate firms, mining companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software. |
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| occrider |
Data for the past 2 weeks. Data is somewhat mixed again. Threat of inflation is low ... fed manufacturing surveys show continual expansion but a slowing down of expansion ... retail sales and chain stores snapshots are somewhat mixed on a week to week basis.
Week Ending August 22
RELEASE: Internet Sales (E-Commerce Sales) [United States]: 15.7 billion
FIRST TAKE: Unseasonally adjusted e-commerce sales edged up modestly in the second quarter from the first three months of this year. Yearly growth slowed from 28.1% in the first quarter to 23.1% in the second quarter.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.7
FIRST TAKE: The smoothed, annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) experienced a small bounce during the week ending August 13, moving from -0.1% to 0.0%. This comes as the index’s level increased from 131.4 to 131.7.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 331,000
FIRST TAKE: Job claims were slightly lower than expected last week - 331,000 displaced workers filed for initial benefits. As has been the case recently, the previous week's claims were revised up by 1,000, to 334,000. Continuing claims rose above 2.9 million again, but revisions will probably pull this number down next week.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Leading Indicators [United States]: -0.3%
FIRST TAKE: The leading indicators index fell 0.3% in July, in line with our expectations. This is the second consecutive month of decline in the index, the first time this has happened since early 2003. Only four of the ten components improved in July. Housing permit issuance and average weekly hours were positive factors, while interest rate spreads, weak equity markets and higher unemployment insurance claims weighed on the index. The coincident and lagging indices continued to advance in July.
RELEASE: Chicago Fed National Activity Index [United States]: 0.35
FIRST TAKE: The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to +0.35 in July from a downward revised reading of -0.19 for June, indicating resumed growth in economic activity.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,530 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 78 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 13. Net injections were just in line with expectations. Today’s storage report should therefore have a neutral impact on natural gas markets.
RELEASE: Philadelphia Fed Survey [United States]: 28.5
FIRST TAKE: The Philly Fed Index dropped a little more than expected in August, dipping from 36.1 to 28.5. Nonetheless, the Third District's manufacturers are still in the midst of a sustained period of expansion as the index has remained in positive territory for the past 15 months.
RELEASE: Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey [United States]: -20.0%
FIRST TAKE: The Fed’s July Loan Officer survey reported a further easing in lending standards across all major categories. There was some moderation, however, in the rate of easing. Banks also reported an appreciable rise in the demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate loans since April.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 689.4
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index advanced a smart 12% to 689.4 for the week ending August 13, 2004. Falling mortgage interest rates are bolstering demand for home purchases as well as for refinancing. Notwithstanding last week’s reading, refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. The purchase index has remained at a strong level since the spring.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -10
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index fell for the second straight week. Consumer expectations also deteriorated in August, with just 24% saying that the economy is getting better, a five-month low.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 293.0 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks recorded a moderate decline during the week ending August 13. Motor gasoline stocks recorded a more substantial draw. Thus, today’s data should be moderately bullish for crude oil and bullish for motor gasoline.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: -0.6%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales fell for the first time in seven weeks, dropping 0.6% last week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth slowed to 3.0%, its slowest growth in just over a year. A number of special factors impacted spending including Hurricane Charley, Tropical Storm Bonnie, sales tax holidays in several states, and high gasoline prices.
RELEASE: Consumer Price Index [United States]: -0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Consumer prices unexpectedly fell 0.1% in July, with energy prices falling 1.9% and food prices increasing just 0.3%. Core consumer prices rose 0.1%, which was slow enough to pull the annual rate of inflation down one-tenth to 1.8%.
RELEASE: New Residential Construction (C20) [United States]: 1.98 million
FIRST TAKE: Strong demand for housing resulted in a rebound in residential construction in July. Housing starts increased by strong 8% to 1.978 million annualized units. A pull-back in mortgage interest rates is helping to keep homebuying buoyant. Moreover, builders themselves are stepping in with financial incentives to bolster demand. Permits are up as well.
RELEASE: Industrial Production [United States]: 0.4%
FIRST TAKE: Industrial production rose 0.4% in July, but was not able to fully recover ground lost in June. The June data was revised downward by 0.2% to show a decline of 0.5% for that month. Capacity utilization rose 0.2% in July to 77.1%, but the increase in July was also less than the decline in June.
RELEASE: NY Empire State Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 12.6
FIRST TAKE: The pace of expansion for the manufacturing sector in NY state slowed dramatically in August. The general business conditions index dropped to 12.6, a substantial decline from the 36.5 posted in July.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 33.2%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence continues to edge lower. While still strong, confidence is well off its peak early summer. Responses to nearly all questions have weakened in recent weeks, particularly to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions six months hence. Hiring intentions have also notably softened. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, and among construction and real estate firms, transportation companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software.
RELEASE: NAHB Housing Market Index [United States]: 71
FIRST TAKE: Builders are buoyant. The NAHB index moved up sharply in August to 71. All three components of the index advanced. Notably, traffic of prospective buyers’ index is at its highest point since the late 1990s. The NAHB also revised upward July’s reading slightly. Strong mortgage applications are keeping up builders’ view of the housing market.
Week Ending August 15
RELEASE: International Trade (FT900) [United States]: -$55.8 billion
FIRST TAKE: The U.S. trade deficit widened by an unusually large amount in June. According to the BEA and Census, the U.S. balance of trade came in at -$55.8 billion in June—a decrease of $8.9 billion. Oil prices inflated the import tab, and a falloff in sales of capital goods undermined exports.
RELEASE: PPI [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Producer prices for finished goods rose 0.1% in July, due largely to higher energy prices. Excluding food and energy, core prices increased by 0.1% as well, since declining prices for finished foods offset energy price hikes. There remains ample inflation at earlier stages of processing. Prices for core intermediate goods rose by 0.5% and prices for core crude goods rose by 8.6%.
RELEASE: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey [United States]: 94.0
FIRST TAKE: The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index preliminary value for August was 94.0, down from 96.7 in July due to tumbling assessments of the outlook. Consumers’ views of current conditions improved modestly as gasoline prices dipped.
RELEASE: ECRI Weekly Leading Index [United States]: 131.5
FIRST TAKE: After another 10 basis point drop, the six-month annualized growth rate of the ECRI Weekly Leading Index (WLI) was zero for the week ending August 6. The index’s level dropped from 131.9 to 131.5.
RELEASE: Import and Export Prices [United States]: 0.2%
FIRST TAKE: Import prices rose 0.2% in July, more than reversing June’s unexpected decline, which was revised upward by one-tenth to -0.1%. Oil prices were the chief reason for the increase in import prices in July, but the increase in petroleum prices was less than expected. Export prices rose 0.4% despite a second month of declining agricultural prices.
RELEASE: Retail Sales (MARTS) [United States]: 0.7%
FIRST TAKE: Total retail sales rose 0.7% in July, largely due to soaring sales at auto dealers. Excluding autos, sales rose only 0.2%. Core sales rose 0.3% as falling gasoline prices undermined gas station sales. While the growth was less than expected, June’s decline was revised down substantially, with widespread upward revisions to June sales.
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 333,000
FIRST TAKE: Jobless claims fell to 333,000 last week, while the previous week's total was revised up by 1,000, to 337,000. Claims fell below consensus estimates. Since there are no special factors explaining claims in recent weeks, this suggests that the lull in the labor market in June and July could be dissipating.
RELEASE: Business Inventories (MTIS) [United States]: 0.9%
FIRST TAKE: Business inventories rose a larger than expected 0.9% in June. This accompanied a minimal 0.1% gain in business sales for the month. The surprisingly large gain in June inventories, along with sizable upward revision to the May gain, suggests the likelihood of an upward revision to Q2 GDP growth, all else held equal.
RELEASE: Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report [United States]: 2,452 Bcf
FIRST TAKE: Underground storage of natural gas increased by 72 billion cubic feet during the week ending August 6, just shy of expectations, which had called for a build of some 75 Bcf. Thus, today’s data should have a neutral effect in natural gas markets.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 616.1
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index slipped by 0.7% to 616.1 for the week ending August 6, 2004. Mortgage rates declined, but only refis responded, with an increase in the refi component of the MBA index. Purchase applications declined. Notwithstanding last week’s reading, refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year, and there is still no sign of a sustained and substantial slowdown in purchase applications.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -9
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index dipped three points this week. The slowdown in job growth and weakening stock market appears to be catching up to consumer sentiment.
RELEASE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [United States]: 5.9%
FIRST TAKE: Gross job openings and turnovers changed little in June from the month before. The number of hires continued to outpace separations; there were 4.3 million workers hired and 4.0 separated from their jobs. The hiring rate inched up to 3.3%, while the separation rate remained unchanged at 3.1%. The job openings rate was also unchanged at 2.3%, although the actual number of openings inched down slightly.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 294.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil inventories recorded an unexpected and sizable draw during the week ending August 6. The sizable draw can be attributed to a significant drop in imports during the week. Today’s inventory data will thus have a marked bullish impact on petroleum markets. The recent crude rally is likely to gain fresh momentum.
RELEASE: Treasury Budget [United States]: -$69.2 billion
FIRST TAKE: The unified deficit for July was $69 billion, slightly larger than CBO's preliminary estimate of $66 billion. Through the first ten months of fiscal year 2004, the federal government has run a cumulative deficit of $396 billion.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales moved very slightly higher for the fourth straight week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. Year-over-year growth remained at 3.1%, a one-year low.
RELEASE: Productivity and Costs [United States]: 2.9%
FIRST TAKE: Productivity in the nonfarm business sector advanced 2.9% based on the preliminary reading for the second quarter. The increase was more than expected and reflects a weak 0.8% increase in hours worked over the previous quarter.
RELEASE: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 6
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity expanded in the Fifth Federal Reserve District for the tenth straight month in July. However, the pace of activity moderated for a second straight month, with the shipments index hitting a low for this year. Generally, however, the regional manufacturing outlook remains positive.
RELEASE: FOMC Meeting [United States]: 1.50%
FIRST TAKE: The FOMC followed through as expected and raised the federal funds rate target 25 basis points to 1.5%. To do otherwise would have raised substantial concerns regarding the economy’s health and likely roiled financial markets. Policymakers did acknowledge the recently soft economy in the policy statement released with their decision, arguing that higher energy prices are the principal reason for the softer economy. They also stated, however, that the economy is expected to soon revive. Policymakers reiterated that future tightening moves will be measured.
RELEASE: Wholesale Trade (MWTR) [United States]: 1.1%
FIRST TAKE: Wholesale inventories topped the consensus in June, advancing 1.1% against expectations for a 0.6% gain. Sales put in a weak performance, coming in virtually unchanged from the previous month.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 34.5%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence is edging lower. While still strong, confidence is well off its peak early summer. Responses to nearly all questions have weakened in recent weeks, particularly to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions six months hence. Hiring intentions have also notably softened. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, and among construction and real estate firms, mining companies, and high-tech firms. Indeed, businesses are most upbeat regarding their investment in equipment and software.
RELEASE: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Survey [United States]: 46
FIRST TAKE: Manufacturing activity remained strong in the Tenth Federal Reserve District in July, despite a slight easing. The net percentage of firms reporting year-over-year increases in production dropped from 51 in June to 46 in July. |
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| occrider |
Week Ending August 29
RELEASE: Jobless Claims [United States]: 343,000
FIRST TAKE: Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose 10,000 last week to 343,000. The Labor Department estimates that half of the week's rise in claims is directly attributable to Hurricane Charlie. This leading indicator of labor market conditions continues to trend below 340,000, signaling solid labor market conditions and providing hope that payroll employment will rebound from the disappointing gains of the last two months.
RELEASE: The Conference Board Help Wanted Index [United States]: 37
FIRST TAKE: Newspaper help wanted index dropped one point in July, to 37. The index stands only a point higher than its cyclical low of 36 reached a year ago. But it is unlikely that the Conference Board measure provides a complete picture of labor demand.
RELEASE: MBA Mortgage Applications Survey [United States]: 646.3
FIRST TAKE: The MBA index retreated by 6.3% to 646.3 for the week ending August 20, 2004. The decline in this volatile index follows the sharp increase of the previous week. Additionally, mortgage rates were mixed last week. Refi activity has slowed substantially in the last year. The purchase index has remained at a strong level since the spring.
RELEASE: Durable Goods (Advance) [United States]: 1.7%
FIRST TAKE: New orders for durable goods rose a larger than expected 1.7% July. Add to this solid number the upwardly revised June gain to 1.1% and this report paints the picture of a U.S. manufacturing sector recovery in good shape as we entered summer. However, enthusiasm over today's report must be muted by the fact that the headline gain was concentrated in a surge in transportation orders (mostly aircrafts). Excluding transportation sectors, orders were up a modest 0.1%.
RELEASE: ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index [United States]: -9
FIRST TAKE: The ABC News/Money Magazine consumer comfort index edged up a single point in the third week of August. Consumers were more upbeat about their personal finances this week.
RELEASE: New Home Sales (C25) [United States]: 1,134,000
FIRST TAKE: Against expectations, new home sales fell in July by 6% to 1.134 million annualized units from June. This pace is the slowest since December. Census also revised downward June data. The slower sales may indicate that the buyers are starting to fatigue after several years of very strong home sales. However, sales remain sturdy and the data tend to be volatile from month to month.
RELEASE: Oil and Gas Inventories [United States]: 291.3 MB
FIRST TAKE: Commercial crude oil stocks recorded a moderate decline during the week ending August 20 according to the Energy Information Administration and a more sizable draw according to the American Petroleum Institute. Overall, today’s data should restore some bullish momentum to petroleum markets even though the momentum will be tempered by less bullish data for gasoline stocks.
RELEASE: Chain Store Sales Snapshot [United States]: 0.1%
FIRST TAKE: Chain store sales actually rose slightly in the latest week, despite yesterday’s poor report from Wal-Mart. Sales rose 0.1% last week according to the ICSC-UBS chain store sales index. The ICSC also reported that back-to-school demand is “moderate” despite the downbeat comments by Wal-Mart. Year-over-year growth slowed to 2.9%, its slowest growth in just over a year.
RELEASE: Existing Home Sales [United States]: 6.72 Million
FIRST TAKE: As expected, sales of existing homes stepped back for the month of July, but the 2.9% decline still leaves sales very high at 6.72 million annualized units. While the resale market continues to benefit from a strengthening economy and still affordable mortgage interest rates, the slight constraint on demand due to an uptick in mortgage rates in May and June is showing up in the July sales data.
RELEASE: UBS Index of Investor Optimism [United States]: 77.0
FIRST TAKE: Investor confidence declined for the second straight month. The UBS index of investor optimism fell 11 points on modest declines in investors’ perceptions about both the economy and their personal finances.
RELEASE: Economy.com Survey of Business Confidence: 32.6%
FIRST TAKE: Business confidence continues to slip. While still high, confidence has fallen measurably over the past two months. It is now back to levels last seen at the start of the year. The most pronounced weakening in responses has been to the broader questions regarding current conditions and conditions expected six months hence. Sales have also turned notably softer. Confidence remains strongest in North America and Asia, but this is where sentiment has fallen the most. |
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| Perfect_Cheezit |
| can we get more updates, or are you too busy with work, occrider |
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| occrider |
| quote: | Originally posted by Perfect_Cheezit
can we get more updates, or are you too busy with work, occrider |
Although I have been rather busy with work as of late (big presentation to my E-VP in a week who's subsequentely presenting to our CFO :nervous: ) I outlined my ... unsual circumstances in the other econ thread:
http://www2.tranceaddict.com/forums...12&pagenumber=4
On a plus note, I just got power restored on Friday so I have internet access. Furthermore I just registered my gmail account with all my econ sites so I should be getting updates as of tomorrow. So to sum things up, soon ... very soon I'll be back on track posting weekly updates. |
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