|
An updated Monty Show paradox for all you COR brainiacs (pg. 6)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| ZeJayMan |
| Nutra-sweets were never my strong point. |
|
|
| Akridrot |
| Someone come up with a new question, riddle, puzzle. |
|
|
| ZeJayMan |
A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes.
Can you explain why? |
|
|
| Akridrot |
| quote: | Originally posted by ZeJayMan
A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes.
Can you explain why? |
Because of the lag on the internets. |
|
|
| ZeJayMan |
| quote: | Originally posted by Akridrot
Because of the lag on the internets. |
Fraid not! |
|
|
| Psy-T |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
im not understanding the logic youve used, with the 3/5 here. why arent the odds changed to each door being 1/3 chance? if you had five doors, and five contestants got to choose a door each, the chances of a correct guess will increase that corresponding amount, but no unopened door is ever going to have more of a chance than any other unopened door. |
the game starts with 5 possible locations for the car
you bet on two of those, 2 in 5 chance for it to be there
the three you didn't bet on have a 3 in 5 chance for the car to be there
the host opens two empty doors. the car's location does not change as a result, obviously, but, the probability of the car being in one of those 3 doors has not changed, the fact that you know it's not in the third or the fourth door tells you there's a higher probability of it being in the fifth door.
i can try to rephrase myself endlessly, but if you can't understand it from my words,, just run the damn simulations lol. |
|
|
| Jocker |
| quote: | Originally posted by Psy-T
also, gambler's fallacy is in fact the fallacy you are falling to here:
you're the one who thinks that past event affect the future event by increasing your choices' probability from 2/5 to 2/3; the elimination of two doors does not increase the probability of your initial choices in being right, however, it does inherently tell us that those two doors have a zero probability of holding the car, and hence the last door has a probability of 3/5 of holding the car. |
absolutely correct!!! |
|
|
| Jocker |
| quote: | Originally posted by ZeJayMan
A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes.
Can you explain why? |
he didn't turn around, and was driving all the way back in the reverse gear. the speedometer and odometer got ed up and read the wrong number back?:D |
|
|
| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Psy-T
the game starts with 5 possible locations for the car
you bet on two of those, 2 in 5 chance for it to be there
the three you didn't bet on have a 3 in 5 chance for the car to be there
the host opens two empty doors. the car's location does not change as a result, obviously, but, the probability of the car being in one of those 3 doors has not changed, the fact that you know it's not in the third or the fourth door tells you there's a higher probability of it being in the fifth door.
i can try to rephrase myself endlessly, but if you can't understand it from my words,, just run the damn simulations lol. |
i understand your words, i just dont think youre right ;)
each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one.
thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same. |
|
|
| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by ZeJayMan
A cabbie picked up a passenger at the Chill Out Room who wanted to go the The DJ Forum. Due to traffic, the average speed was rather low and the trip to the airport took 80 minutes. At the DJ Forum, the cabbie picked up another passenger who, coincidently, wanted to go back to the Chill Out Room. The taxi driver took the same route as before, had the same average speed, but this time the trip took 1 hour and 20 minutes.
Can you explain why? |
lol. because 80 mins=1 hr 20 minutes. |
|
|
| ZeJayMan |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
lol. because 80 mins=1 hr 20 minutes. |
winner, lol. |
|
|
| ZeJayMan |
| quote: | Originally posted by Jocker
he didn't turn around, and was driving all the way back in the reverse gear. the speedometer and odometer got ed up and read the wrong number back?:D |
unlucky, and your avatar is just mint. |
|
|
|
|
