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An updated Monty Show paradox for all you COR brainiacs (pg. 7)
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| Jocker |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
i understand your words, i just dont think youre right ;)
each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one.
thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same. |
you would be right IF the game host just took away (without opening) the other doors. BUT he knows which ones are 100% empty (and two of those he opens).
HOWEVER, your first choice is not affected by his actions, only the other doors are.
it is called a paradox for some reason: because it indeed goes against common sense and intuition at first. that's why it's hard to understand. but this should make it clearer:
consider, that there is a bowl with lottery tickets. exactly 1000 tickets. you just pick 1. the probability that you win is 1/1000. then, all the other tickets are displayed as not winning. do your chances of winning increase? you still hold the original ticket with the original probability of 1/1000. when there are only two tickets left - yours and 1 in the bowl, yours will still have that 1/1000 and not 1/2 (EXACTLY because the host has been removing tickets which are 100% not winning). and the ticket left in the bowl, of course, will have a chance of winning of 999/1000. |
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| Psy-T |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
i understand your words, i just dont think youre right ;)
each door has 1/5 chance. take two doors away, each door has 1/3 chance. by eliminating the two other doors, the probability isnt "transferred" over to the fifth door, each change in the doors equates to a change in ALL the doors, not just the unopened unselected one.
thus it starts 1/5, then becomes 1/4 then 1/3. since you have a free choice at the beginning, the probability for all doors remains the same. |
a door being opened does not make a door disappear :p
just run a few simulations (the greater the number of doors in play [ala my cards analogy from before] the lesser simulations you'd have to run to see it's true), you'll eat your words, guaranteed :p |
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| CleverName |
Here's a novel idea, someone bust out a deck of cards and calculate the odds manually :p
I'd do it myself if I could find a deck. |
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| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Psy-T
a door being opened does not make a door disappear :p
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hehe, oh yeah. i stand corrected ;) |
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| mezzir |
HERE'S AN ACTUAL MATH ONELOL
.99999REPEATING = 1
PROVE IT USING TWO DIFFERENT METHODS
go |
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| Psy-T |
| quote: | Originally posted by mezzir
HERE'S AN ACTUAL MATH ONELOL
.99999REPEATING = 1
PROVE IT USING TWO DIFFERENT METHODS
go |
did capslock day end in the middle of your post? :p |
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| mezzir |
| quote: | Originally posted by Psy-T
did capslock day end in the middle of your post? :p |
CAPS LOCK DOESN'T MEAN SHIFT DOESN'T WORK! |
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| Akridrot |
This thread is still here?
Uh..
2/3 = .66666666666666666666666666666666...
1/3 = .33333333333333333333333333333333...
1/3 + 2/3 = 1
.333... + .666... = .999...
So, 1 = .999
It's impossible to cross a room.
To reach the other side of a room, you must first go halfway. To go halfway, you have to go half of the way from the start to the halfway. To go to the halfway of the halfway, you must go halfway, ad infinitum.
Or.. To go 1/2, you must go 1/4, before you do that, you must go 1/8.. you get my point.
So you can never actually get to the end of the room. You never actually go anywhere, because you have to go half of the way before you do. |
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| Psy-T |
| quote: | Originally posted by Akridrot
It's impossible to cross a room.
To reach the other side of a room, you must first go halfway. To go halfway, you have to go half of the way from the start to the halfway. To go to the halfway of the halfway, you must go halfway, ad infinitum.
Or.. To go 1/2, you must go 1/4, before you do that, you must go 1/8.. you get my point.
So you can never actually get to the end of the room. You never actually go anywhere, because you have to go half of the way before you do. |
oh come on.. Zeno? what are we, commoners? :p |
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| Akridrot |
| quote: | Originally posted by Psy-T
oh come on.. Zeno? what are we, commoners? :p |
Zeno's paradox is not really a paradox, is it?
Even if it's simple, I'd like to see more like it. |
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| Jocker |
| quote: | Originally posted by Akridrot
It's impossible to cross a room.
To reach the other side of a room, you must first go halfway. To go halfway, you have to go half of the way from the start to the halfway. To go to the halfway of the halfway, you must go halfway, ad infinitum.
Or.. To go 1/2, you must go 1/4, before you do that, you must go 1/8.. you get my point.
So you can never actually get to the end of the room. You never actually go anywhere, because you have to go half of the way before you do. |
this bull is called Sophism, and it's more than 2 thousand years old:D:D it was used by some ancient greek philosophers to make fool of others by disproving obvious things in a manner aforementioned:D
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophism
on a math level, it can be easily disproven through series and limits:) as real world is not discrete, the continuity of it follows all that Calculus 1 crap. |
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| Enigmatic XTC |
| The Monty Show paradox can be avoided entirely using one simple method. Dont get off your ass, stay the home, and watch the s figure it out on the show themselves. |
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