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After The Virus (pg. 5)
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| Zoso |
| quote: | Originally posted by Dykes_on_Jay
In these times, negative value products are the rage. Congrats, you've invested in dinosaur juice. |
Dino DNA!
https://youtu.be/qUaFYzFFbBU?t=82 |
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| Dykes_on_Jay |
| Or pterodactyl porn |
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| planetaryplayer |
| I’ve bred raptors |
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| Dykes_on_Jay |
| You should join Tota. Couple of those hoors probably did too back in the day. |
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| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by Boomer187
Well at least here in Georgia we are doing our part in avoiding total disaster by getting our lower income folks back to work at massage places, tattoo places, movie theaters, gyms. I can't imagine how we would ever survive without those people interacting with others in close proximity for the next few weeks.
I really hope everyone thanks us :wtf: |
Wasn't Trump first telling Georgia to open up and a day later that is was too soon?
What an idiot!! |
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| Arbiter |
I actually see reason for some modest optimism in the recent antibody test results. It's true that there are some limits to antibody testing, as with all forms of testing, and that we can't simply assume everyone with antibodies is "immune." But in suggesting that COVID-19 is vastly more widespread than the number of confirmed cases, the results also suggest that the infection fatality rate (and probably also the rate of serious but nonfatal symptoms) is much lower than previously thought.
Indeed, even the antibody studies could very well be under-counting the actual number of infections. The New York data released today, for instance, was collected from people outside grocery stores and other retail establishments. One certainly hopes that such a group would disproportionately exclude people with active symptoms of COVID-19, leading infected persons to be underrepresented in the sample.
The likelihood of a lower-than-thought fatality rate is pretty good news, especially considering that (a) we still don't have a realistic plan to actually stop the spread of the disease; and (b) a bunch of places are planning to begin relaxing their efforts to slow it.
I'm less optimistic about the economy. Most of the public is terrified, so even when and where businesses are allowed to open up it will be hard for them to attract enough patrons to be profitable or start re-hiring. And the vast amount of recently-unemployed people not being able to afford to buy anyway will compound the issue. |
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| planetaryplayer |
| Tota tech house and fugazi techno and people will never see. My posts were removed for bringing up aspects of club and crowd I didn’t like. It’s a graveyard |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Arbiter
I actually see reason for some modest optimism in the recent antibody test results. It's true that there are some limits to antibody testing, as with all forms of testing, and that we can't simply assume everyone with antibodies is "immune." But in suggesting that COVID-19 is vastly more widespread than the number of confirmed cases, the results also suggest that the infection fatality rate (and probably also the rate of serious but nonfatal symptoms) is much lower than previously thought. |
Unfortunately, even if you figure the mortality rate at something as optimistic as 0.5% and work backwards from the number of deaths and assume the death rate is lagging the number of total infections, it's hard to get a population percentage of more than about 5-10% who must already have had the virus, meaning we can't be more than a fifth of the way towards achieving herd immunity. And that's the absolute best case scenario. |
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| Arbiter |
I mostly agree with you, although we might be a bit further along than that now. At least the preliminary NYC antibody results have been testing for IgG antibodies, which I understand to take about 3-4 weeks after infection to form, plus the short delay between the samples being collected and the results being reported. So those results are really a snapshot of infection rates from perhaps a month ago. Presumably quite a few more people have been infected in the interim.
That nit aside, you're not wrong that we're likely still quite far from herd immunity even in the hardest hit regions, and infection rates where the disease is less prevalent could easily be only a tenth of the way to herd immunity or lower. And we still don't even know the extent to which antibodies provide immunity to reinfection, how long they remain in the body, and what the immune response of a patient who had COVID-19 in the past but no longer has antibodies present will look like.
But even so, we're surely better off if we're 1/10th of the way to whatever degree of herd immunity is possible with a 0.5% death rate than if we were 1/100th of the way there with a 2% death rate. So it's not fantastic news overall by any means, but it at least seems like an improvement compared to the even more grim picture painted by earlier, less-complete data. |
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| planetaryplayer |
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| Paradox Lost |
San Francisco extending its shelter-in-place mandate until the end of May, which, by then, will have amounted to about 75 days worth (assuming doesn't get extended again). Which I'm fine with, as San Francisco was the first US city to do so, which realistically played a huge role in preventing our numbers of skyrocketing the way it did in other major cities. And considering just how downright irresponsible some other states are being right now, I consider myself incredibly fortunate to be living in SF in particular, and California in general.
On an unrelated note, and not that this is in the grand scheme of things a major concern, but I don't know how the club scene rebounds from this any time soon. I can't imagine any promotion is gonna wanna book, say, John Digweed, fly him over here and pay his rate when he'll in all likelihood be playing to a half-empty dancefloor because people are still too afraid to go out, or at least cluster up. They can of course operate at dramatically reduced capacity and implement social distancing guidelines, but I don't think a smattering of people gyrating six feet apart makes for much of a vibe. Same with bars. You can drink much more affordably at home, but you go to a bar for the vibe, and what kind of vibe is an empty one?
I imagine most days are going to feel like the kind of day right before a major holiday, for the foreseeable future. |
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| Paradox Lost |
| quote: | Originally posted by Arbiter
I'm less optimistic about the economy. Most of the public is terrified, so even when and where businesses are allowed to open up it will be hard for them to attract enough patrons to be profitable or start re-hiring.
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Just to kind of speculatively pivot out of my last post with this, I think once people start going out, and still find themselves in good health days later, the psychological momentum just builds and quickly carries them back into a rhythm of patronage at least measurably similar to the one they had before. They may not bunch up in tight spaces like clubs and bars, but I can definitely see places like restaurant and retail spaces filling back up again. Which isn't an entirely good thing, because defaulting back to old routines usually means lapsing back into old habits, including unsanitary ones.
Like teenagers who got away with the withdrawal method that 'one time', the false sense of security just builds on itself until it becomes habit. |
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