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The footy discussion thread (pg. 29)
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| srussell0018 |
| People would never bet against the odds if they were as accurate as you claim. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
Yeah, I'm not paying enough attention to what Guardiola said two weeks after we had this debate. CURSE MY OVERSIGHT. Although I can pay enough attention to notice that Pep makes no reference to Chelsea.
And if odds don't lie, Roberto Di Matteo is going to be the Chelsea manager anyway. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
People would never bet against the odds if they were as accurate as you claim. |
What do you mean bet against the odds? I think you mean bet against the "favorite"? If so you have no idea what you are talking about. Give yourself a lesson on probability before you make yourself look stupid. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
And if odds don't lie, Roberto Di Matteo is going to be the Chelsea manager anyway. |
No it means RDM has a 4/6 chance of being the next manager. That does not mean it is guaranteed.
My point is not whether Pep will or will not be the next manager, I am simply pointing out that he is the second favorite at this point in time. You can determine who the favorite is, but you cannot determine who the next manager will be. It was simply in response to your "no way in hell" comment. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Although I can pay enough attention to notice that Pep makes no reference to Chelsea.
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Sure he's being coy, but my genuine question, argument aside: If not Chelsea , then who? Liverpool? I doubt it. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
That's the most imbecilic support for an argument I've ever seen. |
I'm not sure if you are trying to be ironic, but if you are , I applaud your sense of humor. Diplo. |
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| srussell0018 |
| You can't place odds, or at least meaningful ones, on one person's conscious decision you ing dolt. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
Bookies don't make odds based purely on probability. Some odds are artifically short because of betting patterns, to guard against the bookmaker doesn't lose too much money. That's why England always get short odds to win international tournaments, even though we never realistically come close. Intense speculations is driving the odds on Pep down. Pretty sure the odds on Mourinho going back to Chelsea were really low at one point, but that had no basis in fact.
Realistically, I don't think he'll go back into management this summer. Top clubs tend to approach top managers months before making an appointment (Mourinho was approached by Inter four months before they actually signed him, for example), and what I gather from this quote is that Pep will actually start to think about his next move once the season gets underway. I personally don't think he'll ever go to Chelsea unless something drastically changes there. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
You can't place odds, or at least meaningful ones, on one person's conscious decision you ing dolt. |
I just showed you the odds. There they are, right in front of you. You are really making yourself look like a retard right now. |
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| srussell0018 |
| Apparently you skipped what was between the commas. You really are the king of logical fallacies btw. I've never seen someone use more of them in their arguments. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Bookies don't make odds based purely on probability. Some odds are artifically short because of betting patterns, to guard against the bookmaker doesn't lose too much money. That's why England always get short odds to win international tournaments, even though we never realistically come close. Intense speculations is driving the odds on Pep down. Pretty sure the odds on Mourinho going back to Chelsea were really low at one point, but that had no basis in fact.
Realistically, I don't think he'll go back into management this summer. Top clubs tend to approach top managers months before making an appointment (Mourinho was approached by Inter four months before they actually signed him, for example), and what I gather from this quote is that Pep will actually start to think about his next move once the season gets underway. I personally don't think he'll ever go to Chelsea unless something drastically changes there. |
What you are trying to say is speculation influences odds. Sure, nobody denies that. Speculation influences stocks and currency as well. In fact, you can argue that odds are purely and solely based on speculation. But to be fair, objectivity is nothing more than collective perception, right? |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
Apparently you skipped what was between the commas. You really are the king of logical fallacies btw. I've never seen someone use more of them in their arguments. |
You mean the "meaningful" part? Well those odds are as meaningful as cold hard cash. If that means anything to you. |
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