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The footy discussion thread (pg. 32)
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| srussell0018 |
| Well your preferences are inconsequential to me, unfortunately. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| Hence why I've made it loud it clear that I'm not affiliated with you. |
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| srussell0018 |
Which I never asked or wanted you to be. You seem to think quite highly of yourself.
To be honest, I couldn't care less about Chelsea's manager, Chelsea as a team, the sport of soccer, or pretty much anything discussed in this thread. I'm just not about to let Taipan try to use something as asinine as bookie's odds on the next manager of Chelsea as support for his opinion that Pep will be the next manager. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| It's more that I think so little of you I'm uncomfortable with you cheerleading my putdowns. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Some odds are based on mathematical probability. The odds of a coin flip's outcome are not 50/50 because everyone agrees, they're 50/50 because that is mathematical fact. The odds you have cited are not mathematical fact at all - they measure the likelihood of an outcome that cannot be equated mathematically. Your statement odds don't lie suggests that these odds are factual statements of probability as to whether Pep Guardiola will be the next manager of Chelsea. In reality, they demonstrate nothing more than that William Hill think it's profitable to offer odds of 2/1 on that bet. Which, frankly, I don't care about, and neither do I care who is favourite, or who is second favourite. The collective ignorance of others has no influence on my opinion of Guardiola's career.
I've already accused you in this thread of supporting common misconceptions, so posting bookie's odds does nothing to make me think you're capable of independent judgement. |
Even if the odds of a coin flip are mathematically factually 50/50, I still think bookmakers would come to that conclusion based on public speculation, because they don't have time to sit and formulate the statistics of every single bet, they let the public do that for them and adjust the odds to balance the bets.
No the odds for Pep being the next manager are not as mathematically factual as a coin flip - agreed- however , given all the information available, they are the most accurate odds we have at this point in time. That doesn't mean they are perfect, but they are the best we have to go with.
You've accused me of supporting cliche misconception, but my opinion on this matter was made 2 weeks before Pep announced his desire to resume work and before bookmakers announced these odds. In fact my opinion that there is a large chance he would join Chelsea was made around the same time Pep announced he would be taking a 1 year sabbatical from the game, so I don't see how my opinion would be considered cliche. If anything the opposite. |
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| Adamo |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
:stongue:
How red is your face right now? |
Hahahaha, I went to sleep , loser. You thought you won that argument? I bet you gave yourself a high five! Way to go man!
| quote: | Originally posted by srussell0018
Which I never asked or wanted you to be. You seem to think quite highly of yourself.
To be honest, I couldn't care less about Chelsea's manager, Chelsea as a team, the sport of soccer, or pretty much anything discussed in this thread. I'm just not about to let Taipan try to use something as asinine as bookie's odds on the next manager of Chelsea as support for his opinion that Pep will be the next manager. |
Listen , we're not having an argument. That is because there is a right and wrong answer to what we are talking about. I am not arguing with you, I am trying to teach and explain to you. But after how many posts and minutes wasted you are clearly not getting it. There is so much fail in the above sentences, but all the answers to your ignorance can be found in my previous posts. So I wont respond to you anymore, instead I will just point you to my previous posts to study, and maybe one day you will get it. Hopefully. |
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| srussell0018 |
| Don't you have a 1000 word essay to write about how much of a faggot you are from last year's NBA playoffs? You probably should've calculated the odds better before making that bet huh? |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Taipan
No the odds for Pep being the next manager are not as mathematically factual as a coin flip - agreed- however , given all the information available, they are the most accurate odds we have at this point in time. That doesn't mean they are perfect, but they are the best we have to go with.
You've accused me of supporting misconception, but my opinion on this matter was made 2 weeks before Pep announced his desire to resume work and before bookmakers announced these odds. In fact my opinion that there is a large chance he would join Chelsea was made around the same time Pep announced he would be taking a 1 year sabbatical from the game, so I don't see how my opinion would be considered cliche. If anything the opposite. |
Bookmakers are just like casinos and all gambling institutions - they give themselves an edge over the customers in order to make money, which is a factor in all their odds. So these odds can not even be called William Hill's honest opinion on the likelihood of each outcome.
And "Pep to Chelsea" speculation has been rife for months, to the point he had to make a point of denying it when he announced his decision to leave Barca. Guillem Balague, the respected Spanish sports journalist who is currently writing Guardiola's biography and has spent a lot of time with the manager, had the question put to him on Sky Sports a month or so back and said: "It's not going to happen, Pep's said it won't happen, can everyone stop talking about it?" You are most certainly not a radical thinker.
The speculation comes because sources close to Abramovich say he wants Pep, but all the sources close to Pep say he's taking a year out. The odds come from ignorant fans and punters, predominantly in England, reading "Pep to Chelsea" rumours in the paper and thinking it's going to happen. Most of these people know next to nothing about Guardiola. Most of them only ever see Barcelona play in the Champion's League. There are certain journalists and sources I trust, because having followed football for over a decade I've learned who knows their and who will print rumours and write unfounded hyperbole to sell copies. |
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| Taipan |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Bookmakers are just like casinos and all gambling institutions - they give themselves an edge over the customers in order to make money, which is a factor in all their odds. So these odds can not even be called William Hill's honest opinion on the likelihood of each outcome.
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Yes, Willhill makes about 9% on each bet. So for a coin flip they would give either side 1.91 odds. But the relative odds from one bet to another are still proportionally correct.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
And "Pep to Chelsea" speculation has been rife for months, to the point he had to make a point of denying it when he announced his decision to leave Barca. Guillem Balague, the respected Spanish sports journalist who is currently writing Guardiola's biography and has spent a lot of time with the manager, had the question put to him on Sky Sports a month or so back and said: "It's not going to happen, Pep's said it won't happen, can everyone stop talking about it?" You are most certainly not a radical thinker.
The speculation comes because sources close to Abramovich say he wants Pep, but all the sources close to Pep say he's taking a year out. The odds come from ignorant fans and punters, predominantly in England, reading "Pep to Chelsea" rumours in the paper and thinking it's going to happen. Most of these people know next to nothing about Guardiola. Most of them only ever see Barcelona play in the Champion's League. There are certain journalists and sources I trust, because having followed football for over a decade I've learned who knows their and who will print rumours and write unfounded hyperbole to sell copies. |
So either my opinions are cliche or I'm a radical thinker? There is no middle ground here? I'll admit none of my opinions and thoughts come from primary sources. I don't know any of these people personally and am far removed from the actual events. I base my opinions on news articles, bookie odds, public statements and what not. But this is something we can argue for hours and not get anywhere. I think we've both spent more than enough time on this matter, its getting quite redundant. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| There is a middle ground, but you don't occupy it because your thoughts are very clichéd. I was merely being sarcastic. |
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