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Official US Elections Thread (pg. 4)
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| KrinKer |
That's funny tho
A frenchman once said that because of slavery, the experiment in Us democraty was a faillure
Funny i remembered that from my Can & Am culture ...
nothing is played out yet ...
Still hopping that the americans woke up ...
KrinKer |
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| malek |
| kerry ou l'enterrement :( |
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| Epicurus |
Alright, here's a great website with likelyhood of winning the overall elections if certain states are won.
Presidential electoral college predictions
To summarize, it doesn't look good for Kerry, especially if he loses Florida. |
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| KrinKer |
well
@ 9
I can announce that i think that we'll be stuck with Bush For another 4 years !!
KrinKEr |
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| Epicurus |
I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Up till now, there have been exactly 0 surprises. It all turns on three swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that haven't finished polling. The most likely scenario is whomever wins two of these three states wins the elections, although there may be some funkyness that might counter this conventional wisdom.
From RealClear Politics
| quote: | Conventional wisdom for months, including RCP's, had been that whoever won two of the "big three" Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida would almost certainly become President.
While it may still be likely that whoever carries two out of those three will win the election, it is not the cut and dry proposition it was earlier. President Bush can offset a loss in Ohio (and New Hampshire) by carrying Wisconsin and either Iowa, New Mexico or Minnesota. He can offset a loss in Florida (and New Hampshire), by winning three of those four states. Winning Wisconsin, Iowa, Maine's 1 Electoral Vote and holding New Hampshire would also allow President Bush to gain reelection while losing Florida.
Turning the conventional wisdom completely on its head President Bush could even lose all three of Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida and still win, as long as he was able to flip Michigan. Granted, it's difficult to imagine a scenario where Kerry would win Pennsylvania and Ohio yet lose Michigan, but with a poll in Michigan showing the President ahead by five and Mason-Dixon calling it a one point race, coupled with a gay marriage initiative and Ralph Nader on the ballot (unlike PA and OH), it's not totally impossible. In this scenario Bush victories in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin could offset the loss of Florida's 27 Electoral Votes and Michigan would offset a loss in Ohio, leaving Kerry with a measly three electoral vote pick up.
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| KrinKer |
| quote: | Originally posted by Epicurus
I wouldn't be so pessimistic. Up till now, there have been exactly 0 surprises. It all turns on three swing states: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania that haven't finished polling. The most likely scenario is whomever wins two of these three states wins the elections, although there may be some funkyness that might counter this conventional wisdom.
From RealClear Politics |
Ohio and Florida are leaded by Bush ...
KrinKer |
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| Epicurus |
| Sure, but Florida is close (53% to 46%) with only 52% of precincts having voted, while votes from Ohio and Pennsylvania are just being counted (7% and 6% of precincts have been counted, respectively). |
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| KrinKer |
Still
I'm worried !
KrinKer |
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| fastmp3 |
| moi je pense que c'est foutu d'avance ... come on he already dit it in 2000 , je parle des magouilles |
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| Epicurus |
Here's something encouraging in Florida:
Florida County by County
Note: Click on counties to check out voting percentages
The votes in three heavily democratic counties have barely been counted yet (Palm Beach 15%, Broward 56% and Gadsden 15%) as opposed to ALL the heavily Bush leaning counties except for Escambia. I'm actually pretty happy with the way things are going in Florida. Looks good for Kerry here :cool: |
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| KrinKer |
Well
Pensylvania Is going in well for Kerry too !
71-29 for kerry with 15 % of the precints
KrinKer |
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| Epicurus |
| Alright, did some quick math and IF differences in voting percentages between Bush and Kerry hold up in Broward and West Palm Beach, then it's not looking too good for Kerry. Kerry makes up about 125 000 votes in Broward and 70 000 votes in West Palm Beach. Gadsden and Escambia are a wash and the rest of the counties should split 50-50. That means that Kerry should make up about 195 000 votes in FL when all votes are counted in these 2 counties, and he's currently trailing by 285 000 votes. Merde :whip: |
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