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World Cup 2022 Thread (pg. 2)
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| Lira |
All right, hooray for procrastination! I don't really have much time to write about every team as Jack did, so I'll do something completely reckless for good fun: I'll be even bolder and try to predict the results just so we can all laugh at my mistakes later on :p
Here's what I'll be taking into account:
- Elo Rating: As a rule of thumb, semifinalists tend to come from the top 10 ranked countries. It's the basis for the FIFA Ranking without all the tinkering that doesn't seem to improve prediction rates. There have been exceptions, such as Croatia in 2018 and Uruguay in 2010, but it's often bang on the money - in 2014, the only semifinalist that wasn't in the top 4 prior to the competition (the Netherlands) was ranked fifth.
- EA Predictions: Not unlike the traditional number crunching methods, this is what happens when you let a computer do the maths. It's picked the winner three times in a row, but it only did a better job than ELO at picking the other semifinalists in 2018.
- Bookmakers' Odds: They're literally making money out of this, so whenever the data from the previous two methods look conflicting, I'll trust the professional number crunchers.
Group Stage:
Group A - The Netherlands (W) and Ecuador (RU). Senegal might knock Ecuador out, but CONMEBOL as a whole is a much more competitive confederation than CAF, thus giving Ecuador a much better rating. EA sees Senegal advancing, but betting odds for Ecuador are slightly better or equal to Senegal's, so there we go.
Group B - England (W) and Iran (RU). Okay, I'm bypassing my own rules to pick Iran here as a dark horse, a team better ranked than the US and with as close a "home advantage" as possible. Neither the EA prediction nor the bookies agree with me, which would overrule the slightly better ELO rating, but the US finished third in CONCACAF and Iran won their AFC group, so I'm throwing caution to the wind here.
Group C - Argentina (W) and Mexico (RU). It's pretty much a toss-up between Mexico and Poland, apparently. Mexico is slightly better ranked, EA picked Poland, and the bookies are torn between the two. Mexico is slightly more tropical than Poland, so if this doesn't help them play in the scorching heat, I don't know what will.
Group D - France (W) and Denmark (RU). I'm once again bypassing my instincts here because winners tend to underperform whenever they're back. France are the defending champions. France is only slightly better ranked than Denmark, despite winning the previous World Cup, EA sees both teams going forward, and bookies also favour France.
Group E - Spain (W) and Germany (RU). This feels so wrong, but ELO gives Spain a much better ranking, EA yields this exact outcome, and the bookies agree this is the most likely scenario.
Group F - Belgium (W) and Croatia (RU). I wish Canada advanced though, they've been CONCACAF superstars.
Group G - Brazil (W) and Switzerland (RU). It's almost a toss-up with Serbia for 2nd place, but the Swiss have a better rating, better betting odds, and EA stuck with them. Who am I to disagree?
Group H - Uruguay (W) and Portugal (RU). I kind of want to just pick Uruguay and South Korea and override the prediction system I worked on, because Portugal nearly failed to qualify. So I'll just have Uruguay come out on top instead... that's much more realistic than my beloved South Korea advancing to the next round.
Round of 16
Netherlands - Iran (or the US)
Argentina - Denmark
England - Ecuador
France - Mexico
Spain - Croatia
Brazil - Portugal
Belgium - Germany (choosing EA over ELO)
Uruguay - Switzerland
Quarter Finals
The Netherlands - Argentina
Spain - Brazil
England - France
Belgium - Uruguay
I kind of wish we could have a South American majority though...
Semifinals
Argentina - Brazil (this is the ELO speaking, I swear!)
France - Belgium (this is more of a toss-up, but France beat them the last two times they met)
Finals
Argentina - Belgium
Brazil - France
In my defence, both the ELO Ratings and the bookies agree this is the most likely final. I don't understand how EA saw Argentina and France swap places, but the only semifinalist we disagree on is Belgium (EA sees Portugal doing better for some reason). But, odds are I'm wrong because we flop whenever we're favourites, so let's see how wrong I am :toothless
Edit: Oh, just saw Opta's numbers. Not much different from the ones I used. They seem much more bullish about Germany and bearish about Belgium than I am although, granted, that's exactly what the stats say. Hmm... |
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| LoveHate |
| Qatar does not recognize same sex marriage. |
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| Sushipunk |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Australia – Sorry Stu, I can’t see your lot doing much at this tournament. The Aussies used to have a core of players who were regulars in European top flight teams but I’m struggling to name a single player these days. |
No need for apologies, Jack. Australia is not exactly a powerhouse when it comes to football/soccer. It is not a mainstream sport here, even vaguely. When it comes to the World Cup, we are honestly happy to have just qualified! |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trance-M
It's not that I'm boycotting the tournament, but until now I don't feel any excitement at all. I have little expectations of our team and if Depay hasn't recovered well from his injury it will be even less, although the group phase shouldn't be an issue. |
I always hope it's the Netherlands' turn to lift the trophy. Only the Dutch and the Swedes have been this many times in the top 4 and never won a title.
If the Dutch play our team, I'll definitely be happy no matter who wins. Speaking of which...
| quote: | Originally posted by Sushipunk
When it comes to the World Cup, we are honestly happy to have just qualified! |
This is how I see Stu since France and Australia ended up in the same group:
:p |
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| Sushipunk |
| Backflipped. Alcohol ban, lol. |
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| LoveHate |
| Hearing reports now Qatar tried to bribe Ecuador in 1st match. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by LoveHate
Hearing reports now Qatar tried to bribe Ecuador in 1st match. |
The Ecuadorian coach says it's fake news. Now, this match isn't nearly as lopsided as you'd have imagined: Because Qatar recruited a slightly more capable squad of players born abroad, 538 says the odds of Ecuador not winning (that is, losing or drawing) are about the same as Ecuador beating the hosts. Given the court advantage and the 96-year long winning streak for hosts in an opening mach, a Qatari win would be... happenable. Possible, even. Just not more likely than a coin toss. Now that Ecuador have scored, Qatar are hopeless.
I won't judge anyone hoping for a surprise aloha from Doha though. I myself bit the bullet and decided to get tickets to the FIFA fan festival here in Seoul in the hopes I can party with the natives in case South Korea may hold back Ghana - an even unlikelier outcome. But, Anfisa Letyago will be playing after the match, so if Son Heung-min won't save the night, she will.
Edit: Ecuador don't really look sold, unless Qatar promised the payment in beer, left the fans without any, and the players are too drunk to remember the agreement in the first place :p
Edit: Upon further inspection, I guess it should also be said that, although hosts occasionally played the opening match before 2002, such as Brazil in 1950, it only became the rule in 2006. For a while it was the defending champions that played the opening match instead, and back then both France (once) and Argentina (twice) failed to win against football powerhouses such as Senegal and Cameroon :toothless |
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| Lira |
That's quite a unique achievement for Iran, heh:
▲ Scored as many goals as Belgium against England in the last World Cup
▼ Yet conceded three times as many
Hup hup Holland now though, I'll always have a soft spot for them ♥ |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| I didn't get to watch the game as I was out at a work meeting, but I'm pleasantly surprised we put Iran to the sword so comprehensively. Doesn't look like there were any nerves, and the pre-tournament form has proven completely irrelevant. Based on the Wales - USA game, which is the only thing I've watched so far at this tournament, both of those teams are the very definition of "perspiration rather than inspiration", so our passage out of the group might be smoother than I first thought. Also, now that Senegal have lost Sadio Mane, our potential Last 16 opponents look less daunting too. |
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| Lira |
You guys don't get the day off on the World Cup? :wtf:
[Shocked in Brazilian]
Jokes aside, is this just us? I thought most participating countries stopped during the competition. I can't compare with South Korea because the games start around 10 PM, so no one would be working anyway. Back home though, my university goes as far as declaring the match days "bank holidays" starting two hours prior to kick-off, and it is be unthinkable to do anything at all during the 90 minutes the game is on. Groceries? Nope. Classes? Noper. Work? Nopest.
Anyway, speaking of shock and awe at England, I'm just glad the number crunchers from Oxford are siding with me this time around:
Apparently I switched Portugal and Uruguay in the group stage and forgot to keep my word in the knockout stage though. The only difference between the Oxgeeks an me is that I see France beating Belgium, but they see Lukaku's team coming out on top. So, if I make a fool of myself, I'm in good company :p |
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| Midlothian |
| Lira: croquettes au chicken surely can't be right |
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