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Iranian Election: The Revolution Will Be Youtubed (pg. 8)
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
Wrong. That is the romanticized story you and Sullivan would love to believe. We all know the dissent has been brewing among Iranian youth, university students, and the educated for a while now. Obama's "story" wasn't a factor. ANd don't misquote me... I never said it's all Obama's fault, I started out my last comment by saying it wasn't all Bush's fault. There's a difference, Dr. McSpin. |
| quote: | Interview with professor David Menashri, Director of the Center for Iranian Studies and Dean of Special Programs at Tel Aviv University.
Pulse: What will this mean to President Obama's proposed dialogue with Iran?
Menashri: Since Mr. Obama made his offer of dialogue when Ahmadinejad was president, the fact that he has been re-elected per-se should not necessarily cause second thoughts. However, the basis of legitimacy that Ahmadinejad had until one week ago is definitely not the same as he has today. Washington is now facing a President whose election is called into question by the children of the revolution themselves. It should be also remembered, that these are people who were indirectly encouraged by the emergence to the presidency of Barack H. Obama last November and adopted his call: "Yes We Can." This spirit of "Obamaism" made the radical regime scared and concerned and gave the reformist elements heart and encouragement. Given the developments of the last few days, the proposed Washington dialogue with Iran is more problematic than it was a week ago and Mr. Obama will have to carefully calculate his policy vis-à-vis Iran. |
http://israelpolicyforum.org/blog/i...g-within-family |
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| Lebezniatnikov |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
LOL... crazy huh? Yeah man I like to see any population of people who are oppressed, in the true sense of that word, rise up against the oppressors. I think it's great. That's why I don't see the point in the current administration laying in the weeds and waiting to see how it plays out. It's as if they're saying, "we're with you depending on how this shakes out," when the fact that the mullahs choose the president anyway makes this pseudo "election" irrelevant... it makes Obama's statement that "ultimately, it's for the Iranian people to decide," irrelevant because it really isn't- unless we see this uprising play out which needs support. Contrast that with Bush's 2nd innaugural address where he said "People of the world who want their freedom, you stand with us and the United States stands with you." Why is it to hard to say that now? Instead it's, "We don't want to meddle.. we'll see how it plays out... it's up to the Iranian people to decide..." |
I think this op-ed provides an excellent rationale for Obama's actions thusfar:
| quote: |
John McCain, who at one time joked about bombing Iran in song, now has joined the Republican chatterwagon calling for President Obama to Do Something to help the Green Revolution in Iran along. It seems that the Republicans, who were critical of Obama's soaring rhetoric during the campaign, now want Obama to say the magic words, "Ahmadinejad stole the election". But doing so would surely do severe damage to the reformists' cause. As Obama himself put it clearly,
| quote: | | I think's important to recognize is that the easiest way for reactionary forces inside Iran to crush reformers is to say it's the US that is encouraging those reformers. So what I've said is, `Look, it's up to the Iranian people to make a decision. We are not meddling.' And, you know, ultimately the question that the leadership in Iran has to answer is their own credibility in the eyes of the Iranian people. |
What Obama has done instead has been to quietly facilitate and encourage what he referred to as the "healthy debate" within Iran about reform. For example, the State Department asked Twitter to delay their network upgrades, so as not to interfere with the social-media-driven organizing of the reform movement and rallies. This is in stark contrast to the short-sighted closure of Radio Amadi in 2002 by the Bush Administration, which effectively neutered the widespread popular uprisings in the streets of Tehran after the sentencing of popular reformist academic Hashem Aghajari. Of course, the Bush Administration routinely engaged in empty rhetoric against the Iranian regime ("axis of evil"), which only made the regime less willing to tolerate reform. It's no accident that Tehran ramped up its nuclear program shortly afterwards.
Let's not forget that Obama has spoken directly to the Iranian people before the election - Obama's Nowruz greeting to the Iranian people was an end-run around the regime and a tangible encouragement for the Iranians to seek change, as this anecdote from an Iranian-American girl visiting family in Tehran illustrates:
| quote: | | Arguably, it was Barack Obama who brought down the virtual wall between Iran and the West with his conciliatory and hopeful Nowruz (Iran's New Year) message on YouTube. I looked on as my friends and family watched his message with adoration in Tehran. "Why can't he be our president", one aunt gushed. It hit a chord, mainly because it made Ahmadinejad look foolish. |
The point here is that saber-rattling and stern lectures about freedom and democracy are one approach, which give the appearance of "support" for reformists' cause but in fact make things much worse. What does work is direct engagement of the people, giving them resources they can use as they take their own destiny in hand. This is a simple lesson that the ODS-afflicted Republiican warriors would do well to understand, if they truly value the welfare of the people of Iran, not to mention of the United States, over their short-term political fortunes.
This is not about us. It's about them.
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http://blog.beliefnet.com/cityofbra...ma-to-spea.html |
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| hardcore trancer |
| The Republican really need shut their god damn mouth about all this, because anything the comes out of their mouth could end up killing more people over there. |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
The occupation in question happens to be against international law. Actually, it looks more like a gradual annexation of the Palestinians territories. That is an international issue. Israel and Palestine ask for American involvement in any one of their accords. Iran is a completely different story. What do you want us to do? Send in the navy seals? The first hint of American involvement will end this movement.
It also isn't just Obama asking them to stop building settlements. It's the UN and numerous other countries. Even George Bush. |
I'm definitely not suggesting sending in the marines. I'm just trying to make the point that there's a difference between management and leadership. And by the way, according to Israel’s foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, Bush said some of the settlements were permissable. Israel dismantled the settlements in Gaza and withdrew with no real concessions and look how well that worked out- they still aren't happy and the squeeky wheel is begging for the grease. |
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| CHRles |
Yeah, everyone needs to stop just blaming Israel. The whole "illegal settlements" thing is just a convenient excuse, and all the Middle Eastern leaders know it. When Israel has a real partner to talk to things will be different. As long as the ayatollahs in Iran continue to butt into the peace process vis-a-vis the Hamas it'll be a lot harder to acheieve peace. Hanas doesnt recognize Israel's right to exist, which dwarfs the whole illegal settlements issue.
I didnt see Iran meddling in Egypt's negotiations with Israel, and Iran didnt interefere in the Jordanian process (where the majority of the population is Palestinian). The main outside party/ediator at these negotiations was the US, which is what BOTH sides agreed to.
The ayatollahs in Iran needed some scapegoat like Israel to create and sustain the "revolution" in this first place. Rafsanjani even admitted as much in his book titled "My Life":
http://www.aawsat.com/english/news....tion=2&id=17122
"he speaks about his large effort to use the Palestinian cause as part of the revolution’s discourse and political and cultural life in order to find an Islamic cause that the Iranians could unite behind in support of the Islamic revolution and its leadership."
So clearly one can see how peace between Israel and the Palestinians is frowned upon by the ayatollahs in Iran.
There have been numerous instances in the mid 90s when Israel and the PLO were getting ready to make some serious concessions towards one another and sign some treaties. At the last minute Hamas would "crash the party" by sending suicide bombers who'd end up killing people in malls or buses in central Israel. That usually had the effect of freezing the peace process. |
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| The17sss |
Uh oh... sounds like Khamenei's getting ready to call out the Guard for a possible Tehran Tiananmen situation:
| quote: | From source: “I have now received e-mails from totally trustworthy sources within Iran that many Sepaah commanders [Sepaah is IRGC] have been arrested, because they are opposed to what is going on and in particular to the plan for tomorrow. This had been talked about for the past few days, but my source confirmed it.”
Clarification for plans for tomorrow: “Apparently, the plan is to create chaos and bloody confrontation between Basij and Karroubi and Mousavi demonstrators, in order to justify hard crack down and have Khamenei announce the end of “soft” confrontation in the Friday prayers.” |
http://tehranbureau.com/2009/06/18/iran-updates/
:wtf:
Edit: no sooner did I post that did it get confirmed....
| quote: | The moderate Iranian leader who says that he was robbed of victory in last week’s presidential election faces a fateful choice today: support the regime or be cast out.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, has told Mir Hossein Mousavi to stand beside him as he uses Friday prayers at Tehran University to call for national unity. An army of Basiji — Islamic volunteer militiamen — is also expected to be bussed in to support the Supreme Leader.
The demand was made at a meeting this week with representatives of all three candidates who claim that the poll was rigged, and it puts Mr Mousavi on the spot…
It was unclear last night what he would do or even whether the protests would die away if he backed down. |
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/ne...RSS&attr=797093
Tomorrow could turn into one hell of a horrific scene
:nervous: |
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| Krypton |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
I'm definitely not suggesting sending in the marines. I'm just trying to make the point that there's a difference between management and leadership. |
What do you mean a difference between leadership and management?
| quote: | | And by the way, according to Israel’s foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman, Bush said some of the settlements were permissable. Israel dismantled the settlements in Gaza and withdrew with no real concessions and look how well that worked out- they still aren't happy and the squeeky wheel is begging for the grease. |
lol, that's laughable. So what if they "pulled out" of Gaza? Israel still controlled the air and sea space, borders, freedom of movement..It was an illusion. |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
What do you mean a difference between leadership and management? |
Just remembering the difference between now and 1981.... when Poland's govt. declared martial law to squash the Solidarity uprising that started in Gdansk earlier in the year. The Soviet puppet Wojciech Jaruzelski imprisoned thousands, including Solidarity leader Lech Walesa, and tried to suppress the will of the Polish people through force and intimidation, as we're seeing in Iran.
Immediately, Regan said to the Pope: “Your Holiness, I want you to know how deeply we feel about the situation in your homeland. I look forward to the time when we can meet in person. Our sympathies are with the people, not the government.
http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archiv...981/121481b.htm
Then 3 days later he said this to the world:
| quote: | All the information that we have confirms that the imposition of martial law in Poland has led to the arrest and confinement, in prisons and detention camps, of thousands of Polish trade union leaders and intellectuals. Factories are being seized by security forces and workers beaten.
These acts make plain there’s been a sharp reversal of the movement toward a freer society that has been underway in Poland for the past year and a half. Coercion and violation of human rights on a massive scale have taken the place of negotiation and compromise. All of this is in gross violation of the Helsinki Pact, to which Poland is a signatory.
It would be naive to think this could happen without the full knowledge and the support of the Soviet Union. We’re not naive. We view the current situation in Poland in the gravest of terms, particularly the increasing use of force against an unarmed population and violations of the basic civil rights of the Polish people.
Violence invites violence and threatens to plunge Poland into chaos. We call upon all free people to join in urging the Government of Poland to reestablish conditions that will make constructive negotiations and compromise possible.
Certainly, it will be impossible for us to continue trying to help Poland solve its economic problems while martial law is imposed on the people of Poland, thousands are imprisoned, and the legal rights of free trade unions — previously granted by the government — are now denied. We’ve always been ready to do our share to assist Poland in overcoming its economic difficulties, but only if the Polish people are permitted to resolve their own problems free of internal coercion and outside intervention. Our nation was born in resistance to arbitrary power and has been repeatedly enriched by immigrants from Poland and other great nations of Europe. So we feel a special kinship with the Polish people in their struggle against Soviet opposition to their reforms.
The Polish nation, speaking through Solidarity, has provided one of the brightest, bravest moments of modern history. The people of Poland are giving us an imperishable example of courage and devotion to the values of freedom in the face of relentless opposition. Left to themselves, the Polish people would enjoy a new birth of freedom. But there are those who oppose the idea of freedom, who are intolerant of national independence, and hostile to the European values of democracy and the rule of law.
Two Decembers ago, freedom was lost in Afghanistan; this Christmas, it’s at stake in Poland. But the torch of liberty is hot. It warms those who hold it high. It burns those who try to extinguish it. |
http://www.reagan.utexas.edu/archiv...981/121781c.htm
He never calls for military action vs. Poland either. And contrast that with Obama's message here:
http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/was...-elections.html
... where he sounds more interested in breaking bread with the oppressors and placating everyone. That's the difference I was talking abuot. |
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| Krypton |
| Iran is not a communist satellite state and neither is Obama a Ronald Reagan. You cannot look at this from a Cold War frame of mind. It would be very counter productive for America to endorse the opposition. This is something hard-line Republicans just don't understand, but I hope you do. |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Krypton
Iran is not a communist satellite state and neither is Obama a Ronald Reagan. You cannot look at this from a Cold War frame of mind. It would be very counter productive for America to endorse the opposition. This is something hard-line Republicans just don't understand, but I hope you do. |
I certainly can't predict... just gotta see what happens. There will be a lot of hindsight in this one. You'll appreciate this... in an interview today with Mousavi's external spokesman Mohsen Makhmalbaf, the question was posed:
Does Mousavi have a message that he’d like to deliver to the international community?
| quote: | He asks that the governments of the world pay attention to the people in the streets and do not recognize the government of Ahmadinejad as the representative of Iran — that they do not recognize the government of Ahmadinejad as a legitimate government.
Iran is a very important country in the region, and the changes in Iran could have an influence everywhere. So as a result, it’s not only an internal matter — it’s an international problem. If Iran could be a democratic Islamic country, that would be a pattern, a role model, for other Islamic countries. And even if Iran has a terrorist image today, it would be a model for other countries in the future. |
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/story/...p?story_id=5018
Interesting... sounds a lot like he's indirectly appealing for much stronger Western support for backing the protesting people of Iran. |
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| hardcore trancer |
| The west must stay away from the situation in Iran. It is like a ticking time bomb over there right now. Everyone needs to just observe the situation for now. The Iranian people are fully capable to topple this regime when the time comes. |
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| DrUg_Tit0 |
| quote: | | Originally posted by hardcore trancer The Iranian people are fully capable to topple this regime when the time comes. |
That time came as soon as the regime rose to power, back in 1979. |
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