| Epicurus |
Alright, so this a serious post regarding Lebanon's future. All discussion is welcome.
We all know that the government fell last week after huge demonstrations in Beirut and around the country, that there is massive international pressure on Syria to withdraw its troops and intelligence services from Lebanon, and a sense of unity in Lebanon with regards to this issue.
However, the following scenarios and worries present themselves. First, we know that the international pressure being applied on Syria is coming from around the world, but mostly and with the most force from the US neo-cons, and by extension, Israel. The Syria Accountability Act passed in US Congress in December of 2003, a bill that was sponsored in the House of Commons by Barbara Boxer and Rick Santorum, both big allies of Israel in the Senate. In fact, the bill had major Israeli backing, along with elements of the Lebanese Christian right in the US. The bill basically threatens to put sanctions on Syria, both economic and diplomatic, unless Syria stops "sponsoring terrorism" and withdraws from Lebanon. What worries me of course is that the Lebanese Christians are back in bed with the Israelis, shades of some very questionable decisions that were made during the civil war.
At any rate, very shortly after the passing of this bill, the US, helped by France who was eager to mend ties with the US over the Iraq fiasco, decided to sponsor a UN resolution that passed in the Security council and that called for Syria's withdrawl from Lebanon (UNSCR 1559) That resolution passed by a vote of 9-0, with 6 abstentions.
Now, on an almost daily basis, we hear Bush threatening Syria continuously with talk of regime change, invasion, or something along those lines, a neo-con policy pushed by pro-Israeli think tanks in D.C. Thus, in essence, the international pressure being placed on Syria to get them out of Lebanon is, in large part, due to US neo-con policy, which in turn of course is dictated to a large extent by Israeli foreign policy, as we all know too well.
Now certain sectors of the Lebanese population (Sunnis, Christians, Druze) have ceased the opportunity that presented itself after Hariri's death to voice their displeasure with the Syrian presence in Lebanon, and are pushing as hard as they can in conjunction with this international pressure to get Syria out. Needless to say, Syria is feeling the heat, and has already declared that they will withdraw their troops within the next 6 months. Now, there is no doubt in my mind that Syria's decision to do so is due in LARGE part to US diplomatic pressure, and thus, at the surface at least, and perhaps at a much deeper level, it would seem that the opposition in Lebanon along with the certain sectors of Lebanese society are banking on the success of neo-con foreign policy in Lebanon/Syria.
Now this is extremely dangerous for Lebanon from a longer term perspective, both domestically and within the Arab world, especially when it comes to its future relations with Syria. There is a huge sector within Lebanese society that does not want Syria out, specifically the Shia Muslims, who toe the official Hizbullah line, which is clearly pro-Syrian since Syria funds them (along with Iran). Thus, we have about 35-40% of the Lebanese population that opposes Syria's departure from Lebanon, and thus a huge minority that will butt heads with the rest of Lebanese society regarding this issue, which threatens to strongly polarize the Lebanese populus once again. Needless to say, it will be very interesting to see how the opposition handles the Shia at home, and how they handle Hizbullah in general when/if Syria withdraws. From the Syrian relations perspective, this is even more worrisome, since the opposition has now officially put its future (and perhaps the future of Lebanon in the near future) in the hands of the neo-cons, and thus, by extension, although to a lesser extent, in the hands of Israel. Needless to say, that's an extremely risky move that threatens to backfire in the face of the Lebanese people, especially considering neo-con foreign policy in the Middle East, and the US's extremely pathetic record when it comes to "helping" Lebanon in the past 30 years. Syria will always be our neighbour, and if neo-con foreign policy is to fail in this part of the world, we will have to brace ourselves for hell.
In conclusion and in essence, what worries me is that a legitimate grievance of the Lebanese people (i.e. Syrian occupation of our country) is being pushed by a group of people in Washington and Tel Aviv according to a foreign policy that is anathema to me and many in the Arab world, obviously for their own vested interets, interests that I believe are detrimental to the Arab world in general, and perhaps to Lebanon's long term prosperity. |
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