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One week with no alcohol (pg. 14)
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View this Thread in Original format
| Domesticated |
| quote: | Originally posted by Arbiter
Rationally, though, there's no reason to think that you're hitting a lucky patch, since most wins are not harbingers of an improbable cluster of wins. I guess part of it is that I can't understand how people's minds circumnavigate what to me are obvious rational problems like that. It's like they have some special power to suppress what they know and block it out of their mind, so that they can convince themselves to act contrary to their rational best interest; I find it quite fascinating actually. |
You are a weird, weird unit.
A serious question: have you been diagnosed with any kind of disorder? Your apparent inability to relate to people and your rational, analytical approach to even the most simple and mundane tasks is mind-boggling. |
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| Slylee |
:stongue:
this thread is awesome...lots of laughs today |
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| Rose |
| quote: | Originally posted by Slylee
hardrock casino in hollywood
and what's so special about your ? lol |
I get HIGH QUALITY STRAINS, that's what bitch! lol.
and ffs, that's so far...... |
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| Slylee |
| quote: | Originally posted by Rose
I get HIGH QUALITY STRAINS, that's what bitch! lol.
and ffs, that's so far...... |
why where do you live? cutler bay? lol |
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| Rose |
| quote: | Originally posted by Slylee
why where do you live? cutler bay? lol |
I told you, in Doral lol. But I get my stuff by Miami Springs. |
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| Arbiter |
| quote: | Originally posted by Domesticated
A serious question: have you been diagnosed with any kind of disorder? Your apparent inability to relate to people and your rational, analytical approach to even the most simple and mundane tasks is mind-boggling. |
Haha, no.
There has not even been any opportunity for a diagnosis. I don't have any problems, so why would I seek help? After all, I am too rational to be a hypochondriac... |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Arbiter
Haha, no.
There has not even been any opportunity for a diagnosis. I don't have any problems, so why would I seek help? After all, I am too rational to be a hypochondriac... |
The first step in resolving your problems is admitting that you have one :stongue: |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Arbiter
Rationally, though, there's no reason to think that you're hitting a lucky patch, since most wins are not harbingers of an improbable cluster of wins. I guess part of it is that I can't understand how people's minds circumnavigate what to me are obvious rational problems like that. It's like they have some special power to suppress what they know and block it out of their mind, so that they can convince themselves to act contrary to their rational best interest; I find it quite fascinating actually. |
Clusters of wins are not necessarily improbable. It depends entirely on the odds of success. If you've lost seven coin flips in a row and then you win, statistically you are "owed" a few wins. Slot machines are rigged to pay out periodically, and it's common for someone to waste all their money on one and the next player to win with their first coin.
Obviously in pure chance gambling there's no rational reason to believe one win means anything, but most gambling games offer just enough of a controlling framework to encourage people to think they're on a winning streak.
Also: don't forget the power of selective memory. People don't remember uneventful spells of win/lose/win/lose, but they will remember agonising streaks of failure and blissful periods of success, so their memory reconstructs gambling as spells of highs and lows. If you win, you are drawn in by the memory of those highs, and the possible signals of another one being on the way.
| quote: | | On the other hand, I'm definitely much less averse to gambling on, say, the outcome of a sporting event, where the odds on which your bet are based could be wildly different than the actual probability of each outcome. |
Me too. I never gamble in pure chance situations, only in areas based around skill or knowledge. The problem with this discussion is we're treating "gambling" as if it's all the same, when there are many, many variations.
| quote: | Originally posted by Rose
A careless risk lol. So he's wrong. AGAIN. |
It depends entirely on the bet. Not all gambling is equally risky, and thus not all gambles are careless risks. You sound like some anti-drugs preacher, talking with utter confidence about the perils of a subject matter you clearly have no experience of. |
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| Arbiter |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
The first step in resolving your problems is admitting that you have one :stongue: |
In my case I think that would have to be the second step. First, I would have to figure out what my problem is that I need to admit. |
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| inconspicuous |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Clusters of wins are not necessarily improbable. It depends entirely on the odds of success. If you've lost seven coin flips in a row and then you win, statistically you are "owed" a few wins. |
it's suckers who think like that who built las vegas. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by inconspicuous
it's suckers who think like that who built las vegas. |
Over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. A coin toss is 50/50, so over 20 tosses you'd expect around 10 wins and 10 losses (try it at home!). Therefore, if there's been 7 losses, you'd expect a cluster of wins to average it out.
Of course, 20 tosses isn't really enough for reliable 50/50 splits in results, and that's part of the mentality. If you're getting a considerable cluster of losses, the idea is that over a longer time frame they'll eventually average out, and so you play for longer waiting for the good streak.
The funny thing is you call it suckers' thinking, but the same logic is behind smart gambling. If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning: to recognise that a bad cluster is probably on its way and to stop before it happens. |
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