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One week with no alcohol (pg. 15)
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| DJ Damerchi |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. A coin toss is 50/50, so over 20 tosses you'd expect around 10 wins and 10 losses (try it at home!). Therefore, if there's been 7 losses, you'd expect a cluster of wins to average it out.
Of course, 20 tosses isn't really enough for reliable 50/50 splits in results, and that's part of the mentality. If you're getting a considerable cluster of losses, the idea is that over a longer time frame they'll eventually average out, and so you play for longer waiting for the good streak.
The funny thing is you call it suckers' thinking, but the same logic is behind smart gambling. If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning: to recognise that a bad cluster is probably on its way and to stop before it happens. |
unless you're into warlock training or reiki healing, sorry, each flip of the coin is independent from the rest of the batch, there is no scorecard in the sky that is going to even things out.
Every time you flip, 50/50. period. Like inconspicuous said, this fallacy is quite common and is human nature.
What is the probability of having three baby boys in a row(before you have any kids)? 1/8
What is the probability of having a baby girl after having had ten baby boys? 1/2. nothing higher.
(this does not take into account the marginal difference in birth rates in males and females for the sake of argument) |
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| inconspicuous |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. A coin toss is 50/50, so over 20 tosses you'd expect around 10 wins and 10 losses (try it at home!). Therefore, if there's been 7 losses, you'd expect a cluster of wins to average it out.
Of course, 20 tosses isn't really enough for reliable 50/50 splits in results, and that's part of the mentality. If you're getting a considerable cluster of losses, the idea is that over a longer time frame they'll eventually average out, and so you play for longer waiting for the good streak.
The funny thing is you call it suckers' thinking, but the same logic is behind smart gambling. If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning: to recognise that a bad cluster is probably on its way and to stop before it happens. |
You just don't get it. It's kind of depressing. |
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| Sunsnail |
| theres a whole wikipedia article on why youre stupid |
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| nefardec |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. A coin toss is 50/50, so over 20 tosses you'd expect around 10 wins and 10 losses (try it at home!). Therefore, if there's been 7 losses, you'd expect a cluster of wins to average it out.
Of course, 20 tosses isn't really enough for reliable 50/50 splits in results, and that's part of the mentality. If you're getting a considerable cluster of losses, the idea is that over a longer time frame they'll eventually average out, and so you play for longer waiting for the good streak.
The funny thing is you call it suckers' thinking, but the same logic is behind smart gambling. If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning: to recognise that a bad cluster is probably on its way and to stop before it happens. |
there is no 'smart gambling', there is only lucky and unlucky. |
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| Renzo |
| I drank an obscene amount last night. my liver. What the has it done for me lately? |
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| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by inconspicuous
it's suckers who think like that who built las vegas. |
probably the truest statement I've read in a while :stongue: |
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| Domesticated |
| quote: | Originally posted by nefardec
there is no 'smart gambling', there is only lucky and unlucky. |
'Luck is but the musings of an errant God.'
- David L. Lee |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by inconspicuous
You just don't get it. It's kind of depressing. |
It's not so much I don't get it. There's a reason I don't play pure chance gambling, as I've said already. I'm explaining the mentality of a gambler, especially when you're locked in the semi-hypnotic repetition of the act.
I just think it's funny how the same logic that loses everyone their money is what makes someone quit after a good streak, which is undoubtedly a wise move. |
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| Meat187 |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
Over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. A coin toss is 50/50, so over 20 tosses you'd expect around 10 wins and 10 losses (try it at home!). Therefore, if there's been 7 losses, you'd expect a cluster of wins to average it out.
Of course, 20 tosses isn't really enough for reliable 50/50 splits in results, and that's part of the mentality. If you're getting a considerable cluster of losses, the idea is that over a longer time frame they'll eventually average out, and so you play for longer waiting for the good streak.
The funny thing is you call it suckers' thinking, but the same logic is behind smart gambling. If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning: to recognise that a bad cluster is probably on its way and to stop before it happens. |
This is wrong. Gambling has no memory and the chance of winning always stays the same. By the same logic people play those numbers in the lottery that have been drawn the least because they suppose those numbers will catch up. A statistically improbable event in the past (such as a bad losing streak) does not effect the odds for future games. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
Yes, I know. That's why I said "you'd expect", "the idea is" and "it's part of the mentality". They are illusions of probability that keep people gambling.
The only part that is true is the first part: over a long enough time period, the odds are reflected in the results. Again, I'm not saying things I personally believe, I'm explaining the mentality behind compulsive gambling. |
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| TranceOwnsLol |
I think this is what System J is trying to explain...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
| quote: | | If you're on a winning streak, the skill is to quit while you're winning |
it's harder than that for addicted gamblers though, since as you said, they'll reflect back to the times they've been on a good streak. greed and adrenaline when you're winning play a significant role in determining whether you're bound to lose money. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
Yeah, that's exactly it. And don't forget compulsive gamblers have a long history of gambling in their minds. If they've had three or four heavy losses in the past, they will expect three or four big wins in the future, and because they're down they really want those big wins. They have financial pressure on them, so they desperately want a good run. In their minds, every winning streak will be the start of something big.
The problem with pure chance gambling is the house always wins. The gambler always runs out of money first. But because they are aware that the results even out eventually and they have suffered big losses, they find it very hard to walk away when they're winning. |
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