|
The US Federal Stimulus: did it benefit you at all? (pg. 7)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
Companies are starting to show increase in revenue growth. For a while they were making profits only because they had cut costs, but we're starting to see a change in that in the latest earning reports. |
nail on the head |
|
|
| Meat187 |
| quote: | Originally posted by pkcRAISTLIN
Right….So that graph, which represents GDP of the US, was growing how many years before pearl harbour exactly? Not saying the war wasn’t also a contributor, but you’re an idiot if you think the removal of the gold standard and the consequent inflating of the currency combined with fiscal stimulus had no effect on pulling the country out of the depression.
Also, if you think the war is what revived the economy, that is by default admitting that government spending and fiscal stimulus is what revived the economy. IDIOT. |
:stongue:
Not only did you completely fail to read or comprehend any or the sources I gave, but you also, deliberately I presume, completely miss the point, which was debt-financed government spending. And how one can not understand the difference between the genuine demand for munitions that is created by a war and the artificial demand created by a stimulus is completely beyond me. Only a 6 year old kid would fail to understand and mix angry ramblings and shoutings of swear words in his response, trying to prove a point by simply restating it and calling those who disagree names.
Luckily, I don't have to resort to calling you anything, as you've made quite clear to anyone on which level of discussion you operate and how worthy of a conversation you are. :) |
|
|
| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
Woa woa woa.
I'm going to have to ignore your silly talk about global commodity prices being driven up by demand (and investors looking to profit off such demand), because I feel the need to point out your bigger stupidity: the CPI. We all know the CPI is run by the BLS and therefore is being fixed by the Muslim Administration to make things look better. You can't use it as a sign of inflation. |
Of course the US is giong to experience inflation when they've increased their deficit significantly. Regardless, even with inflation comodity prices (with the exception of natural gas) have increased at a higher rate then CPI.
When you see companies like Suncor, Exxon and Imperial oil, Apple and any company comprising the dow joines index killing analyst estimates and significantly increasing their earnings at a higher rate then the climbing cpi, you realize at this point that you aren't just looking at a nominal falacy. There is substance behind it. The actual demand is there to justify the revenue. |
|
|
| The17sss |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
The fact that unemployment is currently on a downtrend should tell you that the economy is improving for the average joe thats willing to take any job. |
Important to read the right statistics.
I hate to do this to you, but the employment trend is not going down. The last set of labor statistics paint a pretty grim picture actually. You must remember that the number of people who have been out of work so long, their benefits have run out are not counted. That number just hit 6.643 million people... a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. If counted, as they should be, these people would accurately send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pe...all-time-record
And to make matters worse, At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Once all the jobs are gone, layoffs will reach zero and our recovery will be complete! lol
And to complete the trifecta, those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year. As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show the graph of what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/la...esh-26-year-low
Plus "underemployed" is at 20%. Youth unemployment is over 50%.
| quote: | | Look at the dow jones industrial, its breaking 52 week highs. oil prices are soaring and demand is back up again. |
Oil prices are skyrocketing because we can't get at our own oil. I don't mean generally speaking either; the Obama administration was found in contempt of court 3 weeks ago for defying a Federal judge's order to start issuing permits again to drilling companies in the Gulf, which they were supposed to do back in October. The judge issued a 2nd warning 5 days ago to issue drilling permits now, or don't issue them and state why they can not be issued. Meanwhile, several rigs have uprooted and left for Brazil, Nigeria, etc. Remember this? "Under my plan, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket". Here it comes....
| quote: | | Companies are killing analyst estimates with their latest quarter releases. The economy is improving as a whole. If you havent found a job yet, lower your standards a bit, don't be a princess. Look harder, if not get a better education and skills which will cater you to new opportunities. |
Wrong again man. Read this to see how profit margins are about to be destroyed in the upcoming quarter(s):
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100...2222436668.html |
|
|
| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
Yet, commodity prices have risen 40% in the past 12 months... this includes agriculture prices +60%, cotton +142%, corn +90%, and energy +14%. Food in general is up 40% in the past 12 months. And our gas prices are the highest EVER for this time of year. Nope, no inflation!
|
DEMAND.
check CPI relative to commodity prices. If the US dollar has decrease in real value by over 50% then you have a point. Otherwise it's moot. |
|
|
| pkcRAISTLIN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Meat187
:stongue:
Not only did you completely fail to read or comprehend any or the sources I gave, |
i was at work, couldn't read the sources. but ive read plenty of revisionist nonsense about the ND, thanks.
| quote: | Originally posted by Meat187
but you also, deliberately I presume, completely miss the point, which was debt-financed government spending. And how one can not understand the difference between the genuine demand for munitions that is created by a war and the artificial demand created by a stimulus is completely beyond me. |
they are one and the same you silly little boy. if a government builds bridges out of debt-financed spending, it is no different to building tanks or bombs. the government "artifically created" that demand for munitions ffs.
you didn't answer my question either. what was the mechanism for such sharp inclines in the US' GDP, if NOT the renewed government spending (due to the abandonment of gold), and what was the mechanism for a marked decline in GDP growth in 1937, if NOT a reduction in said spending? if the depression only ended because of WW2, what sparked the recovery well before germany even annexed the cheqs?
FYI any economist worth their salt knows the abandonment of gold was the principal indicator of how long a country remained in the depression, many of whom escaped the worst ravages of it well before 1939 or 41.
| quote: |
Of course, those familiar with more recent work on the Great Depression will recognize that Friedman and Schwartz's idea of categorizing countries by exchange rate regime has been widely extended by subsequent researchers. Notably, in the paper that revived Friedman and Schwartz's temporarily dormant insight, Choudhri and Kochin (1980) considered the relative performances of Spain (which, as mentioned, did not adopt the gold standard), three Scandinavian countries (which left gold with Great Britain in September 1931), and four countries that remained part of the French-led Gold Bloc (the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, and Poland). They found that the countries that remained on gold suffered much more severe contractions in output and prices than the countries leaving gold.
In a highly influential paper, Eichengreen and Sachs (1985) examined a number of key macro variables for ten major countries over 1929-35, finding that countries that left gold earlier also recovered earlier. Bernanke and James (1991) confirmed the findings of Eichengreen and Sachs for a broader sample of twenty-four (mostly industrialized) countries (see also Bernanke and Carey, 1996), and Campa (1990) did the same for a sample of Latin American countries. Bernanke (1995) showed that not only did adherence to the gold standard predict deeper and more extended depression, as had been noted by earlier authors, but also that the behavior of various key macro variables, such as real wages and real interest rates, differed across gold-standard and non-gold-standard countries in just the way one would expect if the driving shocks were monetary in nature.
The most detailed narrative discussion of how the gold standard propagated the Depression around the world is, of course, the influential book by Eichengreen (1992). Eichengreen (2002) reviews the conclusions of his book and concludes largely that they are quite compatible with the Friedman and Schwartz approach.
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARD...108/default.htm |
basically, the sooner a country abandoned gold and could use monetary policy and fiscal stimulus to fight the contraction, the sooner the country got itself out of the depression.
| quote: | Originally posted by Meat187
Only a 6 year old kid would fail to understand and mix angry ramblings and shoutings of swear words in his response, trying to prove a point by simply restating it and calling those who disagree names.
Luckily, I don't have to resort to calling you anything, as you've made quite clear to anyone on which level of discussion you operate and how worthy of a conversation you are. :) |
when did 'idiot' become a swear word? :conf: also, my "shoutings" was in direct response to
| quote: | Originally posted by Meat187
but the funny thing is that he just mindlessly repeats what he read in his history book |
but oh no, insults are too low-brow for you! :haha:
id stick to the science if i were you ;) |
|
|
| Nrg2Nfinit |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
Important to read the right statistics.
I hate to do this to you, but the employment trend is not going down. The last set of labor statistics paint a pretty grim picture actually. You must remember that the number of people who have been out of work so long, their benefits have run out are not counted. That number just hit 6.643 million people... a jump of 431K from December, and the highest number in history. If counted, as they should be, these people would accurately send the unemployment rate to about 12.8% if they were in the labor force (and, as indicated, looking for a job). http://www.zerohedge.com/article/pe...all-time-record
And to make matters worse, At 64.2%, the labor force participation rate (as a percentage of the total civilian non-institutional population) is now at a fresh 26 year low, the lowest since March 1984, and is the only reason why the unemployment rate dropped to 9% (labor force declined from 153,690 to 153,186). Once all the jobs are gone, layoffs will reach zero and our recovery will be complete! lol
And to complete the trifecta, those not in the Labor Force has increased from 83.9 million to 86.2 million, or 2.2 million in one year. As for the numerator in the fraction, the number of unemployed, it has plunged from 15 million to 13.9 million in two months! The only reason for this is due to the increasing disenchantment of those who completely fall off the BLS rolls and no longer even try to look for a job. Lastly, we won't even show the graph of what the labor force is as a percentage of total population. It is a vertical plunge. http://www.zerohedge.com/article/la...esh-26-year-low
Plus "underemployed" is at 20%. Youth unemployment is over 50%.
|
they need to lower their standards here get a job. How does this even show that stimulus money would not have eased teh situation. It doesn't. Imgagine if all teh big banks failed, GM failed. Tons of jobs would be lost and the senario of teh great depression would be a repeat. Its an opportunity cost. You need to borrow money to invest to make more money. Think of it as leverage. How a underprivaldged student gets government loans to become a doctor and in the end pays the government and then some from the taxes he/she pays on his huge revenue. everybody benefits in teh end.
These people who have "given up" on looking for jobs don't even fit into the equation. They aren't paying taxes they arent looking for jobs they are just sitting on their fat asses doing nothing. So how does this relate to how the economy is doing when you arent even contributing to it or "trying to?"
its the middle class and especially the upper class who are holding the fort down, bringing down the deficit with the progressive tax rates. These are the people who will open the doors to new jobs for people willing to work.
| quote: |
Oil prices are skyrocketing because we can't get at our own oil. I don't mean generally speaking either; the Obama administration was found in contempt of court 3 weeks ago for defying a Federal judge's order to start issuing permits again to drilling companies in the Gulf, which they were supposed to do back in October. The judge issued a 2nd warning 5 days ago to issue drilling permits now, or don't issue them and state why they can not be issued. Meanwhile, several rigs have uprooted and left for Brazil, Nigeria, etc. Remember this? "Under my plan, energy prices will necessarily skyrocket". Here it comes....
|
this is all bull. you don't read teh EIA reports we have been getting surplus storage over the past few weeks and its not due to imports.
Brent crude is soaring at 104 and west texas intermediate is only 85 (usually brent is only 2 or 3 $ more expensive). Yes thats right local oil is much cheaper then what we would import from the north sea Who would have thought?
and remeber. BEfore this whole recession started and the US dollar wasn't at the inflation levels it is at now, oil was trading at around 133 per bbl.
looks like the shortsellers want out lol. I don't buy into bear sentiment.. give me some facts here beside speculation. All i see is solid earnings with increasing revenue which leads to the conclusion, YES you guessed it, that its not due to expense cuts. This is demand based earnings my friend.
for crude:
http://ir.eia.gov/wpsr/overview.pdf
compare domestic supply to the previous weeks to imports from previous weeks. imports are on the decline and domestic is on the rise. |
|
|
| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by Nrg2Nfinit
this is all bull. you don't read teh EIA reports we have been getting surplus storage over the past few weeks and its not due to imports.
Brent crude is soaring at 104 and west texas intermediate is only 85 (usually brent is only 2 or 3 $ more expensive). Yes thats right local oil is much cheaper then what we would import from the north sea Who would have thought?
and remeber. BEfore this whole recession started and the US dollar wasn't at the inflation levels it is at now, oil was trading at around 133 per bbl.
looks like the shortsellers want out lol. I don't buy into bear sentiment.. give me some facts here beside speculation. All i see is solid earnings with increasing revenue which leads to the conclusion, YES you guessed it, that its not due to expense cuts. This is demand based earnings my friend.
|
+ 10 to both of these :) |
|
|
| WittyHandle |
| quote: | Originally posted by EddieZilker
not to mention allow me to contribute to my girl-friend's wages |
HA HA SPELLING MISTAKE IN THE MIDST OF OTHERWISE 100% SPOTH THE ON ACCURACY WHICH NEGATES ALL THAT SURROUNDS IT HA HA HA HA!?*&^%$#@ I LOVE VODKA NOW BUT I'LL HATE LIFE IN THE MORNING HA HA HA*&^%$#@ |
|
|
| TranceArmstrong |
| quote: | Originally posted by The17sss
try to close the state's $3.6 billion budget gap dropped in his lap by his predecessor. |
No sympathy at all for public sector union workers whose contracts are undisputedly driving state governments to bankruptcy. I'll start to feel bad for them when states do actually declare bankruptcy and retirees get left with nothing. |
|
|
| Fledz |
| Nobody knows how oil works anyway. It's all one giant cluster. |
|
|
| Lilith |
| quote: | Originally posted by Fledz
Nobody knows how oil works anyway. It's all one giant cluster. |
Oil's more in the hands of speculators that make a game of being skittish whenever the Koreans let off bottle rockets or some Arab chucks a rock.
edit: did fine out of the US hitting rock bottom. Thanks for the cash |
|
|
|
|
