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Corona Virus Fears in your area (pg. 13)
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| Silky Johnson |
| I'm sure a link was already shared breaking it down in specifics. If it wasn't here it was in one of my group chats. I will take a look. |
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| Zoso |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
You've not exactly shown your workings though. I'd love to see the actual modelling that has gone into these varying approaches. |
The Lancet is at least attempting to build some models:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/...0144-4/fulltext
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30144-4/fulltext |
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I think you should be explaining to me how we can. No public gatherings of people for a year. Schools closed and children at home for a year. The elderly isolated for a year. Travel banned for a year. Tell me how that is possible. |
I don't know what you mean. Of course it's possible. Under the Civil Contingencies Act of 2004 the government can proclaim a state of emergency and force all of that to happen.
Is that a good idea? Probably not. But it is certainly possible.
I do think we should shut down everything (gyms/bars/restaurants/schools) for the next month or two, however, at least until we have more ventilators and testing facilities. Currently the NHS only has capacity to treat about 5,000 seriously-ill people at once. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
I don't know what you mean. Of course it's possible. Under the Civil Contingencies Act of 2004 the government can proclaim a state of emergency and force all of that to happen.
Is that a good idea? Probably not. But it is certainly possible.
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And every airline collapses, every bar, restaurant, hotel, nightclub, sports club and gym goes out of business. The economy completely tanks, millions are unemployed, millions more have to adapt to changing child-care needs.
You asked me “why not”. That’s obviously why. It would be completely disastrous. Social distancing measures need to be phased and need to be timed right to take the worst of the sting out without ing up the whole country in question. |
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| Vector A |
Doctors and scientists are throwing everything at this virus to try and beat it and some of these drugs seem to be working pretty well. Development of more accurate and faster tests is also moving along.
If we do the extensive social distancing and take the big economic hit right now, stemming the tide of new cases into hospitals, we may not need to worry as much about an extended "second-wave" outbreak once we get testing and treatment locked down and we can keep people from progressing from flu-like symptoms to respiratory failure.
The one advantage that the enormous number of cases gives us will be a huge, quickly-generated mass of data on what works and what doesn't. |
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| Vector A |
Yep, a number of anti-HIV drugs are being looked at. I've read multiple stories of patients recovering within days after starting on Kaletra. These are just anecdotes for now but multiple trials are underway. |
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| OrangestO |
| Wonder what the world's carbon emissions will look like in the next few months. |
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
And every airline collapses, every bar, restaurant, hotel, nightclub, sports club and gym goes out of business. The economy completely tanks, millions are unemployed, millions more have to adapt to changing child-care needs. |
Well, not necessarily. Yes, millions unemployed, but not necessarily all businesses going out of business. There are a lot of tools the government could use to prevent bankruptcies, as well as to help all those millions of unemployed get by. The economy would definitely contract, but then would rebound when things went back to normal.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
You asked me “why not”. That’s obviously why. It would be completely disastrous. Social distancing measures need to be phased and need to be timed right to take the worst of the sting out without ing up the whole country in question. |
Again, I'm not suggesting we do it, I'm just saying that it is possible. Not trying to be pedantic, either, just saying that extreme measures could be taken. It's not impossible.
At the end of the day, it's a political choice. What is worse, for the government: shutting down much of the country for 1-3+ months, or having a per capita death rate much higher than the rest of Western Europe? |
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| Sykonee |
| quote: | Originally posted by OrangestO
Wonder what the world's carbon emissions will look like in the next few months. |
They're already seeing a decrease in air pollution over northern Italy.
Edit:
Relevant link:
https://www.space.com/italy-coronav...ite-images.html |
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| Woony |
Re: "What is possible" - I though this thread was interesting - https://twitter.com/frnsys/status/1238537548386967553
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
At the end of the day, it's a political choice. What is worse, for the government: shutting down much of the country for 1-3+ months, or having a per capita death rate much higher than the rest of Western Europe? |
Not only is the second option dangerous and extremly unsolidaric to countries which have been more or less forced into an early lockdown, I also doubt it is going to make anyone better off in the long run. The workings of the economy aren't laws of nature, they're socially and politically mediated and can be suspended and transformed. The more goverments agree on a state-of-exception and employ similiar tools, the easier it is going to be to get out of this thing in the long run. |
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| Woony |
| Apparently the state of Ohio alone now already has more estimated cases than all of China during their main outbreak (100k vs. 80k). |
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