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Corona Virus Fears in your area (pg. 16)
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| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I sincerely hope so, and that widespread testing is introduced over the next couple of weeks. It would give us far more control over the whole situation. |
That's probably not going to happen. UK probably is not much different from here, there just isn't enough testing capacity available, not even enough testkits.
But I totally agree more testing is really needed as it might be that the actually number of infections is way higher than the current numbers show. We need to know how many already have been exposed and just showed some mild symptoms. I just can't imagine childeren at school wouldn't spread the virus in no-time (so already did), just like when the flu is around each year. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
I suppose it's some minor consolation that the testing situation is the same in other countries. I've probably been reading too much left-wing commentariat desperate to paint our government as uniquely dangerous and inept.
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
The plan at the moment is definitely lets bunker down until we have a vaccine. I am hoping we can do more of a V than a U pattern, but who knows anymore. We, in the UK, need more tests, more ventilators, and more money. Glad to see the BoE will be buying more commercial paper, but we need to just start sending out checks to everyone ASAP, imo. I'm still optimistic about under 100,000 deaths, but this is definitely the weirdest of our lives.
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I'll say it again: this cannot be sustained for 18 months. Not just economically but socially too. Something will have to give, whether it's major expansion to the NHS' resources or Vector A's faith in some kind of effective treatment being fast-tracked. The whole world can't stay at home for 18 months, and even martial law won't be enough. From what I'm hearing anecdotally, the over-70s are proving some of the most uncooperative. |
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| Zoso |
Here is an informative link with 3 charts/graphs that are very much worth looking at: https://www.visualcapitalist.com/in...-covid19-curve/
I really like the probability chart. I cannot say, of course, how accurate such a chart is, but it's still fascinating that someone did the math on it.
Finally, the 3rd chart further down showing the relative size of pandemics over history is very sobering. |
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| OrangestO |
| There are a lot of people showing obvious symptoms who don't seem to care about social isolation, distancing or not walking into you while on their phone. Add that to those who don't have symptoms but have been infected. I guess such is the result of living in a major city. The is about the hit the fan in London. If not for anything else, we need a complete lockdown to convey the seriousness of the situation to everyone and their bloody dog, even if the response is weeks past due. Then perhaps after a period of complete public realization, we can adjust mandates and preventive measures accordingly. And yes, we need tests!! |
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| Zoso |
| Based on what I am seeing/hearing here, locally, a lot of people are, unfortunately, going to have to lose someone close to them before they grasp the severity of the situation. |
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I suppose it's some minor consolation that the testing situation is the same in other countries. I've probably been reading too much left-wing commentariat desperate to paint our government as uniquely dangerous and inept. |
Our government is certainly inept, but unfortunately not uniquely so.
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
I'll say it again: this cannot be sustained for 18 months. Not just economically but socially too. Something will have to give, whether it's major expansion to the NHS' resources or Vector A's faith in some kind of effective treatment being fast-tracked. The whole world can't stay at home for 18 months, and even martial law won't be enough. From what I'm hearing anecdotally, the over-70s are proving some of the most uncooperative. |
Wait, but who is talking about locking down the country for 18 months? If there is a lockdown, I would imagine 1-3 months maximum. I also can't imagine that there will not be both a major expansion to the NHS' resources and a fast-tracked effective treatment.
Yeah, I've heard that about some over-70s, too.
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
Wait, but who is talking about locking down the country for 18 months? If there is a lockdown, I would imagine 1-3 months maximum. I also can't imagine that there will not be both a major expansion to the NHS' resources and a fast-tracked effective treatment.
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The ICL report the government are working to:
| quote: | The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a
vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission
will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed. |
Seriously, look at the curves they've plotted in the link I shared above. Suppression (IE: the current measures including school closures) does nothing to flatten the potential peak once measures are relaxed. It actually peaks even higher! And that's after five months, not three.
Lifting these measures after three months is a waste of time. The best you'd get is a one-month window of "normality" before you'd have to do it all over again. |
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| JEO |
| China is already in, or at least close to, their normality window. Let's see how they'll do. |
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| OrangestO |
:(
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
The ICL report the government are working to:
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Ahh, sorry, yes, I thought you were saying someone in this thread had suggested 18+ months.
I'd note the ICL report is not suggesting a lockdown, however, 'only' social distancing. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| I'm not talking about a lockdown in the sense of what's happening in Italy or Spain. I'm talking about the current state here in the UK, with schools about to close tomorrow. This cannot be sustained for 18 months, which is what the ICL report states is likely to be necessary. |
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