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Corona Virus Fears in your area (pg. 15)
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| Vector A |
| Have fun doing "herd immunity" with a disease that has ~1% mortality. And that's the optimistic estimate that assumes your hospital system doesn't get overrun. Say 60% of the Netherlands 17,000,000 people get it: at 1% mortality that's 102,000 dead. |
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| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by Vector A
Have fun doing "herd immunity" with a disease that has ~1% mortality. And that's the optimistic estimate that assumes your hospital system doesn't get overrun. Say 60% of the Netherlands 17,000,000 people get it: at 1% mortality that's 102,000 dead. |
Do the alternatives look much better you think? |
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| Dykes_on_Jay |
| Do they enen have Listerine in Windmillfagada? |
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| Zoso |
| If you pour Listerine onto a windmill (in motion), it's going to spray that everywhere. Maybe that is the goal? |
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| SYSTEM-J |
So everything has now been ramped up here - the majority of bars, clubs and restaurants are now shut, schools are closing, people are being advised to work from home if at all possible. Seems we're hitting the curve properly now. Time will tell if the timing was right.
That said, the vast majority of cases are (predictably enough) in London. There's still only 19 confirmed cases in Leeds. It hasn't stopped some of my friends convincing themselves they're in mortal danger, and I've had to remind a few of them they've essentially got a 50% chance of having no symptoms at all.
The main thing that annoys me about our national response is the lack of testing. Even frontline health workers are struggling to get tested. It makes a complete mockery of the isolation guidelines. For example, a friend I saw at the weekend has developed a cough and temperature today. If he could get tested, within a few days everyone who saw him at the weekend would know if they needed to be tested and if we all needed to self-isolate. Instead I've got the rather ludicrous decision of whether to ask for 14 days off work on Statutory Sick Pay because someone I saw 4 days ago has a cough. At the end of it, I could return to work without ever having been infected and then contract the virus from somewhere else and need another 14 days off. Alternatively I could carry the virus with no symptoms for up to 7 days and spread it everywhere I go before it becomes obvious.
It's the same with what happened with my partner on Sunday night, although that turned out to be nothing. Without testing, the whole thing is doomed to fail. It makes me think the government is still really wanting to get this thing over with and build up that "herd immunity", and these current measures are only to keep the whole thing just about manageable. |
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| Vector A |
| Here the quarantine has really ramped up but it's still extremely hard to get tested unless you're close to needing a ventilator or have been to China or Italy recently. I don't think it's due to any ill intent, it's just the fact that our incompetent politicians insisted on dismissing the danger until a few dozen people had already died and developing our own tests rather than using / copying the ones that were available, so of course now they have to limit testing to the most dire cases. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
I sincerely hope so, and that widespread testing is introduced over the next couple of weeks. It would give us far more control over the whole situation.
The government have finally shown the modelling they're working to (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-16-03-2020.pdf). What's scary is that even if we follow the "suppression" strategy that's just been implemented for five straight months, the curve still pops its lid like an active volcano within a month of the measures being lifted (see the graph on Page 10). All we're doing is buying time while a vaccine is developed. |
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| Lews |
I must admit to having discounted the virus far too much, but part of that was because I thought the governments would have more testing capacity, etc, after what we saw in China.
I understand London is about to go into martial law on Friday or Saturday. Went to the shop this evening, all I could buy was hearts of romaine lettuce and prosecco. It's getting mental out there. Our grocery delivery website is just down for the time being, but I have preemptively been putting in orders every few days to keep us going.
The plan at the moment is definitely lets bunker down until we have a vaccine. I am hoping we can do more of a V than a U pattern, but who knows anymore. We, in the UK, need more tests, more ventilators, and more money. Glad to see the BoE will be buying more commercial paper, but we need to just start sending out checks to everyone ASAP, imo. I'm still optimistic about under 100,000 deaths, but this is definitely the weirdest of our lives.
I want to go to my local for one last pint tomorrow, and probably will, because I'm nuts, but Jesus. |
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| Silky Johnson |
| JFC, presumptive case of Covid-19 on the unit I work on right now. Thank I'm off this week. Really hope to get an update ASAP tomorrow. I have been really diligent but now I hear this and wonder "Have I been??" ughhhh. |
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| Sykonee |
As someone that works on the retail Essential Services front-lines of all this, I wish we'd be able to get tests just to be sure. Even in my little back-corner of the larger business, the sea of people coming in buying whatever they can has been bonkers, and if even a couple of those souls have been carrying without knowing...
Feels like wiping counters and spraying tables and squirting sanitizer can only do so much when The Odds don't work in your favour. |
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| raver31 |
| first the health officials said that the seniors are at risk the most and now they say young people can die withtout underlying health condtions too. we are living in dark times |
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