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"Vote Hillary Clinton 2016" is dead. Long live "Vote Hillary Clinton 2016"! (pg. 11)
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| Woony |
How did she screw Bernie? His campaign was late and unprepared and he lost by millions of votes. He screwed himself by not doing more preparation.
I'm also not sure if Bernie would have won. Yes, his popularity is high but he's not running anymore and he's never gotten properly attacked. There's some weird stuff that would make great attack ads and the socialist label is really easy to stick for the main conservative demographic. He's also doing worse than Clinton with minorities. That said, he'd probably have gotten better millenial turnout and he offers that anti-establishment rhetoric that really helped Trump. But i'm not sure if he could have swayed the uneducated white demo since he lacks the racist, anti-immigration and radical christian rhetoric that is also central to Trump's campaign.
I was also just thinking about what this does for Clinton's legacy. Trump didn't even have anything to loose but Clinton could have become this hero of progressivism, the first woman president etc. but instead she's this kind of tragic character that tried for 30 years and ultimately failed at the most important hour. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Woony
How did she screw Bernie? His campaign was late and unprepared and he lost by millions of votes. He screwed himself by not doing more preparation.
I'm also not sure if Bernie would have won. Yes, his popularity is high but he's not running anymore and he's never gotten properly attacked. There's some weird stuff that would make great attack ads and the socialist label is really easy to stick for the main conservative demographic. He's also doing worse than Clinton with minorities. That said, he'd probably have gotten better millenial turnout and he offers that anti-establishment rhetoric that really helped Trump. But i'm not sure if he could have swayed the uneducated white demo since he lacks the racist, anti-immigration and radical christian rhetoric that is also central to Trump's campaign.
I was also just thinking about what this does for Clinton's legacy. Trump didn't even have anything to loose but Clinton could have become this hero of progressivism, the first woman president etc. but instead she's this kind of tragic character that tried for 30 years and ultimately failed at the most important hour. |
I've said this all along - Bernie was conclusively beaten by millions of votes and while he didn't have a credibility issues that Hrc had, he was also unknown and seemingly socialist which white uneducated voters hate just as much.
It's interesting though, the black and female vote just didn't come out for hilary according to the early analytics and it seem conservative women just don't care about trumps sexism. |
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| TranceElevation |
| RANN, you look so silly right now :stongue: |
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| Woony |
That's interesting, I guess that's the mistake everyone made - thinking this was going to about white men against minorities and women when really, it was white educated, urban men against white, uneducated, rural men.
I'm curious about what's going to happen with the political landscape of the US. Of course, the GOP is going to bring through all the bull they've always wanted - but then what? For the past eight years, they've been built on Obama hatred and obstructionism. Especially the alt-right, they have no focus with no obvious bogeyman. Then there's of course the obvious conflict between the two, Trump's success is built on the alt-right but without the support of the GOP establishment he can't do much. He's such a wildcard, is he actually interested in doing the job? How much of the stuff he's peddled is he actually interested in pushing? He obviously doesn't believe in half of it, given his stances prior to running. For the democrats, they've got a whole generation that hasn't actually experienced being in opposition so this is probably going to radicalize them. That and the fact that Clinton failed is probably going to produce some Sanders-like candidates. Progressive legislature in the US is obviously ed for the next decade or so though.
That said, i'm not sure if I can stomach following more of this crap. I already don't watch TV or read news sites really, I only got invested in this election cycle through sites like Reddit and since i'm not directly affected, it just burns time, energy and makes you miserably. Better choice to just plug off, I think. I mean really, the constant stream of information that makes facts worthless, the constant fear and uncertainty, the permanent newscycle showbusiness, that's what produced someone like Trump in the first place. |
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| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by TranceElevation
RANN, you look so silly right now :stongue: |
Not at all. |
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| Alex |
I love the posts from you ******s that are actually blaming uneducated white people for what happened. Yes they are responsible, but don't blame them. You guys honestly just sound like annoying SJWs.
Maybe if governments stopped pandering to the elites of their parties, and actually didn't ignore their biggest demographics like this and Brexit wouldn't happen.
Despite all the "degrees" people have on TA, you all got this in wrong because you are out of touch with the reality of half your country. Just because someone didn't go to college doesn't mean their contributions to the US are worth dismissing. e
This is a lesson in checking your arrogance at the door. Maybe if you guys spent less time debating with people on TA who's opinions are only slightly different than your own, you could have gone out and actually done something to get the result you wanted. Nah, arguing on the internet about political science will work next time though, ya lazy s. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
Not withstanding jack's correct sentiments about the lesser of evils, and the Berniebro factor, there really weren't many "undecideds" |
| quote: | Originally posted by Woony
Third party support isn't big enough to account for the swings in the polls. I don't think there ever have been a lot of undecided people this election |
You were both completely wrong, as it transpires, although I've only just read this now:
| quote: | Undecided voters contribute to uncertainty
In our national polling average, about 12 percent of voters are either undecided or say they’ll vote for a third-party candidate. While this figure has declined over the past few weeks, it’s still much higher than in recent elections. Just 3 percent of voters were undecided at the end of the 2012 race, for example, according to RealClearPolitics. Clinton’s share of the vote — about 46 percent in national polls — is low for a leading candidate, and Trump’s share of 42 percent is the lowest of any candidate since Bob Dole in 1996. |
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ome-up-clinton/
Nate Silver correctly noted that there was enough uncertainty in the data to make a Trump victory realistic, and so it transpired. Honestly, did you actually think Clinton had a 98.5% chance of victory? Sheer wishful thinking, as I said yesterday
I think there are a lot of parallels to Brexit here, even setting aside the unexpected failure of the polling. Some that stand out:
1. A result that can be seen as ordinary/poor people defying what they see as an uncaring establishment, even if the thing they voted for doesn't really benefit them over the current status quo.
2. A losing side that struggled to sell itself in positive terms, instead relying on fear-mongering about the alternative and posing as a "safe" continuation of what had gone before.
3. Demagoguery triumphing over facts and rigorously defined policy. Indeed, Trump's campaign methodology seemed specifically designed to exploit the lack of political knowledge of the average voter.
4. Worrying warning signs late in the campaign, masked by mistakenly reassuring last minute polling.
5. The vast majority of celebrities, musicians and creative figures publicly supporting the side that lost. I have to admit, if anything prompted my cautionary tone yesterday it was when Springsteen, Madonna and Jay-Z jumped on board the Clinton campaign. It's becoming increasingly clear that ordinary people hate being told what to do by celebrities.
My biggest regret is, exactly like Brexit, I didn't vote on the outsider. A banner advert flashed up last night giving 4/1 on Trump victory, and I knew the odds were waaaaay shorter than that. Exactly the same thing happened on Brexit night. On both occasions I simply couldn't be bothered to walk five minutes to the nearest bookies. |
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| wotyzoid |
| quote: | Originally posted by Alex
I love the posts from you ******s that are actually blaming uneducated white people for what happened. Yes they are responsible, but don't blame them. You guys honestly just sound like annoying SJWs.
Maybe if governments stopped pandering to the elites of their parties, and actually didn't ignore their biggest demographics like this and Brexit wouldn't happen.
Despite all the "degrees" people have on TA, you all got this in wrong because you are out of touch with the reality of half your country. Just because someone didn't go to college doesn't mean their contributions to the US are worth dismissing. e
This is a lesson in checking your arrogance at the door. Maybe if you guys spent less time debating with people on TA who's opinions are only slightly different than your own, you could have gone out and actually done something to get the result you wanted. Nah, arguing on the internet about political science will work next time though, ya lazy s. |
It's just ironic that most of the people you are talking about voted cluelessly voted agaianst their own self interest and at the end of the day, what can really be done about it other than investing in education, which the electoral is obviously against. Viscous cycle, I think you're the one missing the bigger picture.
edit: and I don't have a degree. plenty of alternative opinions from this Marxist. |
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| Jon_Snow |
| Alex don't embarrass yourself you don't live in the US and have a limited knowledge of our politics. Just because Trump won the election doesn't invalidate opinions posted here or make him a good candidate. The parties don't stay in power for more than two election cycles and there is global movement that is larger than the candidates that no one has control of. |
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| Alex |
I'm not missing anything man. I don't think Trump was the right vote, but this is what happens when you ignore tens of millions of people (white working class).
Ultra liberal "elites" live in a bubble and think they know what's best for everyone, pretend to care about everyone and so on, but even if they know better than people voting for Trump, they are apathetic morons that spent the entire election playing on their smartphones instead of using what knowledge they may or may not have to influence their neighbors.
Human beings aren't completely unreasonable, but you get them angry enough from being ignored for so long, they do like this just to give the middle finger to "the system" even if it hurts them. In recent years working class whites have been told they are racist, sexist, stupid and of no value to America. Not by the government in words, but by activists, media douches, internet personalities and basically anyone who has an outlet to express their opinion. They are told they caused climate change, that their belief systems are wrong and delusional and that they have to basically join the regressive douche class overnight and spam the Young Turks if they want to even be heard.
You can't ignore, bully and then ignore again the still biggest demographic in your country and expect them to do what you want.
Education is important, you're right, but these are working class people who aren't going to go to college in their lifetime, be realistic. You want to educate them? Go and campaign for the candidate you want, get off the in internet and go and act like a person again and actually connect with people and inform them instead of talking down to them. |
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| Alex |
| quote: | Originally posted by Jon_Snow
Alex don't embarrass yourself you don't live in the US and have a limit knowledge of our politics. Just because Trump won the election doesn't invalidate opinions posted here or make him a good candidate. The parties don't stay in power for more than two election cycles and there is global movement that is larger than the candidates that no one has control of. |
I've been following US politics since I was kid, son. I pretty much exclusively watch US news and have a lot of family in the US.
Get the outta here with your garbage. |
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| Woony |
| If woman and blacks hadn't underperformed like they did, 98% wouldn't have been terribly unrealistic, given how close the election was now in some of the key swingstates. I don't think anyone was banking on them underperforming, given how vile Trump was to these demographics. Maybe it was a bit naive in hindsight but who knows. |
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