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"Vote Hillary Clinton 2016" is dead. Long live "Vote Hillary Clinton 2016"! (pg. 6)
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Aaaaaaand the FBI says there's no wrongdoing in the new batch of Clinton emails.
A bit too late considering the date of the election but, well, the probe is over and nothing illegal was found. |
, comey very nearly did this one up;
And now, Trump tweeted about how there's no way for the FBI to read all those emails in just 8 days.
So Snowden shut trump down in a one sentence instruction on how to do it in a few minutes using an old laptop lol.
Best part? Trumps aides have taken away Donald's twitter privileges until after the election so he doesn't say anything that will further up his chances. lololololol
As for the senate, it's looking like a 50/50 split but slightly leaning GOP, however there is a big margin of error due to the VP thing. |
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| DJ RANN |
EDIT:
So I take it back what I said about 538.
Apparently, there a storm going on between Nate Silver (owner/founder of 538.com) and the Huff Post, as there's evidence to suggest that 538 have been "playing with the numbers" in favor of Trump.
The huff post has said they took the same data that 538 had for the end of last week and it put trump at a 1.4% chance of winning the election.
538 had a figure of 32.4% for the exact same data set but apparently "weighted certain factors" for "accuracy".
Nate Silver then had a twitter meltdown at the Huff post, saying their article is full of bull, but the Huff dumped the data and the only way you get to 538's figure, is by manipulating the numbers.
Hmmmmmmmmm. Is this not going to be as close as we thought? |
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| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
Is this not going to be as close as we thought? |
I never expected it to be close, but I was expecting they will make it look close, as it's the biggest show on earth.
"This Is Bigger Than Watergate", sure it is, next...
Can anyone explain about the other candidates and why they are there at all? I would expect them to get more votes with all the hate against Trump and Clinton. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
EDIT:
So I take it back what I said about 538.
Apparently, there a storm going on between Nate Silver (owner/founder of 538.com) and the Huff Post, as there's evidence to suggest that 538 have been "playing with the numbers" in favor of Trump.
The huff post has said they took the same data that 538 had for the end of last week and it put trump at a 1.4% chance of winning the election.
538 had a figure of 32.4% for the exact same data set but apparently "weighted certain factors" for "accuracy".
Nate Silver then had a twitter meltdown at the Huff post, saying their article is full of bull, but the Huff dumped the data and the only way you get to 538's figure, is by manipulating the numbers.
Hmmmmmmmmm. Is this not going to be as close as we thought? |
To be fair RANN, you have absolutely no expertise to comment on what Nate Silver is doing. You only have the word of the Huffington Post against his, and Nate Silver has a hard-earned reputation for getting these things very accurate.
538 still has Hillary at 66% (ish) to win, so the likelihood is there, but it's not as cut and dry as Obama's campaigns. The fact is, Trump is still in with a realistic chance of winning the election. There's a lot of anxious lefties around who are trying to play down any worrying news. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Trance-M
I never expected it to be close, but I was expecting they will make it look close, as it's the biggest show on earth.
"This Is Bigger Than Watergate", sure it is, next...
Can anyone explain about the other candidates and why they are there at all? I would expect them to get more votes with all the hate against Trump and Clinton. |
I have a feeling it's not going to be close in the end. The final polls are coming through right now and they all put Hilary at 4% lead but voter registration in Democratic areas are breaking all records. If the black and latino vote actually comes out, it's going to drown Trump. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
To be fair RANN, you have absolutely no expertise to comment on what Nate Silver is doing. You only have the word of the Huffington Post against his, and Nate Silver has a hard-earned reputation for getting these things very accurate.
538 still has Hillary at 66% (ish) to win, so the likelihood is there, but it's not as cut and dry as Obama's campaigns. The fact is, Trump is still in with a realistic chance of winning the election. There's a lot of anxious lefties around who are trying to play down any worrying news. |
You're right, I'm not a statistician by any means, but it seems strange that the Huff post would so outwardly go after 538 and I can't help but remind myself that 538 isn't a non profit organization. Sure, their reputation is their value statement, but they need to make profit like anyone else and you can bet you last sheckels that he's made out like a bandit with this race being so contested, and more importantly a "tight" race. His page views must be through the roof.
I actually trust 538 but we'll tomorrow if they were on the money.....
EDIT: here's those page views:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/fivethirtyeight.com
Currently ranked #541 on the entire web. up 700+ places in the last month. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
538 is far from the only website or outlet making this contest out to be extremely tight. The various polls speak for themselves. The idea that Nate Silver is making the election look tighter than it is to generate himself more page clicks is simply fanciful. He gets loads of attention every time the election comes around, and he'd be sacrificing that long-term reputation if he got it wildly wrong this time just for a few more clicks.
More believable is that a notably left-leaning publication like HuffPo is taking on worrying statistics to generate clicks with a worried left-wing readership. They don't have nearly as much to lose if their predictions are wrong. |
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| Lira |
A warm message from Aphex Twin. |
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| Sykonee |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
A warm message from Aphex Twin. |
Vote For Daddy. |
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| Lira |
| I will eat your voooooooote! |
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| Vivid Boy |
| Tomorrow grab freedom by the |
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| Lews |
| I'll trust Nate Silver over the Huff-Post any ing day of the week. |
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