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"Vote Hillary Clinton 2016" is dead. Long live "Vote Hillary Clinton 2016"! (pg. 50)
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| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
His popularity today dipped to just 39%, among republicans so while they may not trust the press, they also don't really trust Trump. His ratings are just going lower and lower, even among his base. |
True, but here's the thing: 89% of republicans voted for him, mostly because he wasn't Hillary Clinton. Not because they liked him (he's far from being the average Republican), not because his message resonated with them, not because he said he'd build a wall. It was all because he wasn't the Democrat. Remember his nomination as party candidate? It was a loveless affair from the get go. Even voter turnout was about as low as it could get.
Besides, if they don't trust Trump, that doesn't mean they'd pick him over Hillary. Odds are they still think "at least he's not her", so I'm not sure that's all that relevant :p
Edit: According to the Pew Research Centre, 84% of Republicans and Republican leaners approve of the way he is handling his job as president, so we should also keep in mind things aren't exactly clear-cut. It's all a mess, really. |
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by DJ RANN
His popularity today dipped to just 39%, among republicans so while they may not trust the press, they also don't really trust Trump. His ratings are just going lower and lower, even among his base. |
No, it's 39% overall. 84% of Republicans approve of him.
http://www.people-press.org/2017/02...eply-polarized/
Edit: Like Lira said, apparently :o |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
True, but here's the thing: 89% of republicans voted for him, mostly because he wasn't Hillary Clinton. Not because they liked him (he's far from being the average Republican), not because his message resonated with them, not because he said he'd build a wall. It was all because he wasn't the Democrat. Remember his nomination as party candidate? It was a loveless affair from the get go. Even voter turnout was about as low as it could get.
Besides, if they don't trust Trump, that doesn't mean they'd pick him over Hillary. Odds are they still think "at least he's not her", so I'm not sure that's all that relevant :p
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Totally agree that there may be a lot of people voted for him in the simplest of reasons; that he wasn't Hilary - I mean you only have to look at the female votes he still managed to get, just after gate, It's honestly why I think Hilary ( and Chelsea) needs to completely off and stop trying to be part, or even head, of the "resistance". You really can't underestimate the vitriol against her.
I think that many republicans voted him for that reason, but also because regardless of whether he wasn't a traditional republican or they liked his personal values or the guy himself, he was going to push a republican and conservative agenda. Now he's given the GOP exactly what they want (sans scandals) they'll stick to him like glue.
Dammit, The Hill ed me. They first said among republicans, but now edited that out. The rasmussen poll isn't anywhere near as damning as the Gallup/Pew ones but I suppose that's to be expected.
It is a mess as you say, the polarization is acute here. If them dems want to have a chance in 2 or 4 years time, they better find someone that isn't a rapid leper to the republican base. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by wotyzoid
My favorite part about his presidency is millions of people realizing that they are straight stupid. |
Actually, in reference to Lira's post about the press and trump:
Trump called out on more "Alternative Facts"
He's literally, spewing out comments that have no basis in truth, and then says "I know, I was just given this to read". It's ing bizarre if you think about the fact this man is president and is telling us the press is all lies and fake news. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
If anything, it's the media and the courts that are coming out bruised, popularity wise. 14% of Republicans trust the media, according to Gallup. That's roughly 1 in 8. |
To be honest, I think the continued mockery, satire and dirt-sifting is only going to backfire. Trump has already committed some egregious attacks for which he thoroughly deserves censure, but he has an excellent defence mechanism because he can point out (with some justification) that much of the media has a naked agenda. I watched the Sebastian Gorka interview on the BBC and he just batted back all the questions as agenda-driven distortion. And as he pointed out, the interviewer lead off with emotionally-charged words like "crazy" and "shambles", which you just don't normally hear in the sober discourse of political interview.
My main hope for his presidency is that America's in-built laws and counter-measures take hold and neutralise Trump's idiotic attempt to bulldoze his way past due process. He's attempting to run the country like an ordinary joe in a bar who thinks the president can just Executive Order their way to whatever they want. Indeed, I'd say the core idea behind Trump's success is the belief that an "ordinary" straight-talking no-nonsense non-politician could run the country better by cutting the bull.
The best thing that can happen in the longer term (better even than Trump getting impeached) would be for his presidency to get locked down in the same ineffectual gridlock that every other politician ends up mired in. That would shatter the very concept that a political outsider can do any better than a proper politician, and re-introduce the idea to ordinary people that politicians lie and disappoint and fail because politics is an impossible job. Only if that happens can Trump's reign by written off as a unique historical experiment, a testing and disproving of a populist hypothesis. If he gets impeached, it'll merely give his supporters the idea that he was artificially removed from the stage before he had chance to Make America Great Again. |
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| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
To be honest, I think the continued mockery, satire and dirt-sifting is only going to backfire. Trump has already committed some egregious attacks for which he thoroughly deserves censure, but he has an excellent defence mechanism because he can point out (with some justification) that much of the media has a naked agenda. I watched the Sebastian Gorka interview on the BBC and he just batted back all the questions as agenda-driven distortion. And as he pointed out, the interviewer lead off with emotionally-charged words like "crazy" and "shambles", which you just don't normally hear in the sober discourse of political interview.
My main hope for his presidency is that America's in-built laws and counter-measures take hold and neutralise Trump's idiotic attempt to bulldoze his way past due process. He's attempting to run the country like an ordinary joe in a bar who thinks the president can just Executive Order their way to whatever they want. Indeed, I'd say the core idea behind Trump's success is the belief that an "ordinary" straight-talking no-nonsense non-politician could run the country better by cutting the bull.
The best thing that can happen in the longer term (better even than Trump getting impeached) would be for his presidency to get locked down in the same ineffectual gridlock that every other politician ends up mired in. That would shatter the very concept that a political outsider can do any better than a proper politician, and re-introduce the idea to ordinary people that politicians lie and disappoint and fail because politics is an impossible job. Only if that happens can Trump's reign by written off as a unique historical experiment, a testing and disproving of a populist hypothesis. If he gets impeached, it'll merely give his supporters the idea that he was artificially removed from the stage before he had chance to Make America Great Again. |
I have to agree; the more emotional the press gets towards him, the better it fits his narrative that the press is the problem. Your timing is perfect as about an hour after you wrote this, he literally said "the Press is the enemy of the american people". He's not just accusing the press of lying but tarring them with a brush that makes others see them as the foe, not him.
It's a repellent; the harder they are out to get him (even if they're right on the money), the more he can say it's a witch hunt by the evil liberal media. The press also really aren't helping themselves as they have the attention span of a fly with ADHD - just look at the flynn scandal - they actually have something provably substantive on Trump and all he has to do is hint a somewhat vague but salacious statement about Israel and it's two state solution, and the press chases the new shiny object rather than the old. Then trump makes a bold headline statement about press being the enemy, and we've suddenly moved on from both Flynn and Israel, that was yesterday's "fake" outrage.
I will say though, there's a cumulative effect of all these shenanigans, including the mockery and satire he receives - people get fatigue and looking at anecdotal things like SNL which is experiencing a peak of decades, does go in to the mainstream psyche, that he can be made fun of, and not be taken seriously or at his word. That's not something you can shake off easily as a reputation, and while that sort of thing gets a pass or doesn;t have much gravity while the DOW is soaring and the jobless rate is still going down, that sort of thing counts when heads downhill.
The checks and balances are at least in the honeymoon phase, holding - the Travel ban in it's current form is completely dead. he'll have to do a completely new executive order, with far more sensitivity and I imagine far less scope, which in effect has the result of diluting, if not completely blocking his ill intentions.
I actually think he's trying to run the country in the same way he runs his own companies (and his father did before him) - do what you want, throw money and people at it and ask for forgiveness rather than permission when deciding how you're going to do it. He thought the travel ban could be forced through or at least modified to something that would stick so he could spin a victory, but the checks and balances thankfully kicked in because they judiciary is still somewhat autonomous and discrete from the executive branch. The problem may come when he's filled the 100+ of open seats in the judiciary, not to mention the supreme court vacant seat.
You're absolutely right the best thing to happen would be a monumental block to show that bombast doesn't forcefully create instant results, and outsiders don't automatically bare more progress than experienced political players. The saving grace with impeachment, is that for it to actually happen, it would have to be driven by the GOP and the place they'd have to be in to take that step, would have to be so intensely egregious that I don't believe Trump could obfuscate his way out of that quagmire. He may learn on the job, but seeing as he's seems to only be getting more crystallized in his, to put it politely, unconventional approach to political management, he may well turn out to be the cautionary tale of populism, rather than the poster boy of a new world order. |
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| soulstar606 |
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| Zharen |
| quote: | Originally posted by Social Justice Warrior RANN
I have to agree; blah blah blah |
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| soulstar606 |
MAGA all day!
MAGA all night!
Do the MAGA shuffle!
Cause you know it feels right!
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| Lews |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
My main hope for his presidency is that America's in-built laws and counter-measures take hold and neutralise Trump's idiotic attempt to bulldoze his way past due process. He's attempting to run the country like an ordinary joe in a bar who thinks the president can just Executive Order their way to whatever they want. Indeed, I'd say the core idea behind Trump's success is the belief that an "ordinary" straight-talking no-nonsense non-politician could run the country better by cutting the bull.
The best thing that can happen in the longer term (better even than Trump getting impeached) would be for his presidency to get locked down in the same ineffectual gridlock that every other politician ends up mired in. That would shatter the very concept that a political outsider can do any better than a proper politician, and re-introduce the idea to ordinary people that politicians lie and disappoint and fail because politics is an impossible job. Only if that happens can Trump's reign by written off as a unique historical experiment, a testing and disproving of a populist hypothesis. If he gets impeached, it'll merely give his supporters the idea that he was artificially removed from the stage before he had chance to Make America Great Again. |
I've thought about that before, and I'm still not entirely sure how I feel about it. If his populist reign fails, will his populist supporters suddenly realise that politics is an impossible job and that you can't always get what you want? I feel like that's a bit too optimistic. It seems more likely that they'll declare they need to storm the Bastille and tear the entire structure down. |
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| SYSTEM-J |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
I've thought about that before, and I'm still not entirely sure how I feel about it. If his populist reign fails, will his populist supporters suddenly realise that politics is an impossible job and that you can't always get what you want? I feel like that's a bit too optimistic. It seems more likely that they'll declare they need to storm the Bastille and tear the entire structure down. |
Some won't, the nutjobs and the hardcore obviously. But I read a lot of interviews and comments from ordinary voters who had voted for Obama with a lot of optimism and then felt seriously let down by his lack of results. A lot of them went from voting for Obama to voting for Trump in this election.
I go back to what I argued on election night. Ultimately elections are decided by ordinary, largely non-political people who make voting decisions on simplistic headline-level understanding. If Trump fails to meaningfully implement his promises and lets the country slide on important metrics - employment, economy, crime rates, etc. - then that will stick in the memory next time anyone tries to sell themselves on the same terms. |
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| Lira |
| quote: | | quote: | Originally posted by Lews
It seems more likely that they'll declare they need to storm the Bastille and tear the entire structure down. |
| quote: | Originally posted by SYSTEM-J
If Trump fails to meaningfully implement his promises and lets the country slide on important metrics - employment, economy, crime rates, etc. - then that will stick in the memory next time anyone tries to sell themselves on the same terms. |
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I'm going to take the middle ground and say I don't think there'll be a spark that kindles the fire that will burn down American democracy, but I don't think Trump will fail either. Mostly because I reckon Trump is just another Berlusconi. Italy is still a (somewhat) functional democracy (Freedom House still considers it a free country and the Economist Intelligence Unit takes it to be a flawed democracy), even though he tried to get away with as much sleaze as he could - and managed to be the prime minister for not just one, but four governments. And, in a sense, this wouldn't be the worst outcome because, just as Silvio, he'll probably be "a clownish figure paralysed by scandals", as Foreign Policy puts it.
But then, I doubted he'd become president in the first place, so what do I know? :p |
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