|
"Vote Hillary Clinton 2016" is dead. Long live "Vote Hillary Clinton 2016"! (pg. 22)
|
View this Thread in Original format
| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by Jon_Snow
I thought the whole purpose of the cor is to get mad or make someone else mad. |
Totally makes sense now. |
|
|
| BTG |
now i get relentless bull from my sister on facebook:
 |
|
|
| smcmulli |
Smcmulli here once again after many years of being absent from these forums. Chicken burgers and french fries ladies and gentlemen, chicken burgers and french fries. It is all that is left for us and we must rejoice and hold hands among one another and bring back the lasso of the almighty lordith of destruction.
Until 2018, be safe TA, and see you in two years.
- smcmulli
Grand Wizard
Three-taps
xoxo |
|
|
| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
One of the many irritating traits you have is your tendency to slowly drift an argument. Do you even remember what the original point was? We were discussing why certain voters may have changed from Blue to Red and you stated there was no statistical evidence to support the theory that certain people may have been feeling anxious about the economy. I replied that, on the contrary, there is some. I didn't say it proves it conclusively beyond a doubt, I simply said there was some evidence and if you were at all intellectually curious and not insufferably arrogant you might have looked into it. But no, you're always so damn certain of yourself. Lets remember, for a fun example, how long you've been writing on this forum that the Press was making the race look close because they wanted to sell ads, no matter how often we pointed out that was stupid and illogical.
|
Drifting the argument? Projection much? I'll set you straight. I posted a stat from the dept of labor that showed a swing that didn't (and still doesn't) match the bollocks you're desperately trying to convince me of a subjective theory of "future anxiety". Again, all of the metrics relating to their industry such as consumer confidence index, auto sales, unemployment, etc in those specific districts are all in a constant incline since 2008.
So back to your all important article. It's from 538.com for s sake. the very ing place that got the election so wrong and was the basis of the origin supposition that maybe the numbers were being played with in Trump's favor but I still said I still trust 538, just it's strange that another news org would openly accuse them of fudging it). It immediately became apparent that 538 weren't fudging the numbers, they just got it so horrifically wrong, to the point their rep is in tatters, and I acknowledged, based off all the previous data from 538 how wring we were given their previous analysis.
So when suggest that people switched in that area against their own interests, your answer is to post an article to "prove" an esoteric opinion that a guy with a PHD has about anxiety fueling the switch. I say bollocks.
Firstly it's "analysis" (just like the deluge of 538 blog posts telling us time and time again that Clinton was going to win), secondly it's completely ing subjective - he doesn't actually link the stats of labor to the votes in any way that is tangible, he literally just gives his opinion and links to another article in the atlantic with yet more opinion rather than fact, and best of all he actually confirms what i've been saying all along: that's it's got little to do with voting your interests based on party performance (such as for the party that has helped your economic stability or job growth), and that the switch from Blue to red in this sector is emotional and tribal.
here you go, the ending from your own article:
| quote: | | For the most part, Trump did better in places that typically vote Republican — there is a strong correlation between how Trump performed in 2016 and how Mitt Romney performed four years earlier.4 So if routine jobs tend to be concentrated in Republican-leaning areas — as I found a few months ago — that doesn’t necessarily reveal much about whether economic anxiety fueled Trump’s support, in particular. |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
What the do you read in life that you think there is no qualitative metrics showing that the white working classes are highly concerned about the future? Here's one big one, with links to other sources if you want to actually learn something for once: https://hbr.org/2016/11/what-so-man...s-working-class
|
Are you that dumb to believe that everyone isn't concerns about the future? Especially the working class. The argument that you're failing to compute, and the entire point (as you so put it) is that's not what led the switch in votes, because again, if that was really what's driving it, they wouldn't be voting against their economic interests.
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
That is a terrible metaphor and shows how terribly you comprehend probabilities.
|
Nope. There was no model by 538 or anyone else that had trump doing that well.
in fact, to quote Kelly Anne Conway when responding to Clinton's aid on the night who was suggesting it'll never happen: "Thanks for the tip - we ran the four-state OH-PA-NC-FL table indeed and added MI in for good measure!"
That's why it's not as simple as "trump won". What the did was not in any model or suggestion apart from the likes of soulstar's crazy maps which everyone, myself included just giggled at becuase it was so far fetched, given the pollster pundits amazing errors.
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
Again, go read about why they are feeling anxious. In addition to the links in the above HBR article, there are great New Yorker articles linked to in this article: http://www.newyorker.com/news/john-...election-result
In fact, people like you, on the coast, sitting around talking about why the white working classes have no reason to feel anxious, is probably a big contributing factor to them voting for Trump over Clinton.
|
Again, all subjective and while I don't deny people are always worried about their jobs - as I said, I have a dream act person who works for me that is terrified right now - that's not the correctable reason as to why they jumped ship in such incredible numbers.
Again, per my earlier point, the switch started from Obama to Romney (with not good economic reason however you look at the data on jobs, confidence, unemployment, sales, growth) and it only continued in this election.
| quote: | Originally posted by Lews
Maybe, maybe not. You don't know what their interests are. |
That might well be true but it certainly isn't what you've suggested. |
|
|
| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by Woony
It refers to this unexplainable anger coming out of the most banal people which don't really have any real specific reason for being angry. In the US I'd translate it to something like "suburban angst" or "suburban rage", the kind of people that have a stable job, are providing for their kids and a nice car and house but are still watching Fox News every day and incredibly pissed off at the world.
The great thing with all these german stereotypes is that we never think they apply to us, like come on i'm totally lazy and not organized... but when start hanging out with people from other countries you start getting this subconscious discomfort when certain things aren't done a certain way and you start thinking stuff like "oh god, why aren't they just writing this down and making a list?" :p |
See?! It's so beautiful, all this nuance from a word taken off a Burger King menu 
Ja, das it schön. Das ist wunderschön!
| quote: | Originally posted by Vivid Boy
The Germans have always been great at sorting and then exterminating. Theyre also really good with lists apparently |
:stongue:
Woony's post makes this even better :p
| quote: | Originally posted by BTG
now i get relentless bull from my sister on facebook |
Oh man, oh man, oh man, I'd give you the most compassionate of hugs right now if I could. My younger brother has turned into an SJW in the last couple of years, and I know exactly how you feel. I'm surprised you've got her on Facebook, because it's come to a point I unfriended him out of fear.
I dreaded coming to my parents after Trump's election because even though I'm a centrist whose beliefs actually mirror Clinton's to a great degree, he's now such a redder-than-thou leftist he'd liken me to Ted Cruz for not being a Bernie Bro. Turns out he didn't come for Sunday lunch. |
|
|
| Zharen |
| quote: | Originally posted by BTG
now i get relentless bull from my sister on facebook:
|
That's all I been seeing these past several days as well. Suddenly, all the liberals turned into Social Justice Warriors and are now doing everything they can to belittle and guilt trip others for not voting the way they wanted them too. Even the third-party voters are getting about wasting their vote. It's ridiculous. These people who claim to be fighting for democracy and equality are just proving themselves to be no better than the man that they despise. :rolleyes:
#ADULTCYBERBULLYING2016 |
|
|
| Trance-M |
| quote: | Originally posted by BTG
now i get relentless bull from my sister on facebook:
|
That's annoying man. I guess I must be happy my sisters isn't too active on FB and does't talk to me like that. |
|
|
| sensorium |
Four interesting years ahead of us. Like it or not, the country is divided; half the country voting for him. Protesting against Donald doesn't do much when you have another half who won and expects the president-elect to act on those promises made from the beginning.
The Republican party built this perfect model of someone suitable to oppose everything Obama was doing. Trump came in and quickly embodied that model, even against the will of the Republican party. What do you have now? You have a president with no prior experience and the whole Republican party in power as soon as they have the majority in the supreme court.
Even if the first two years go ridiculously bat- crazy, I doubt the Democrats will get any seats back to make a meaningful defense.
In any case, Trump is ed. He must act on the promises people elected him for. If he begins to show a soft side, people are going to start turning on him, and that could be even more dangerous.
I still remember how George W. Bush was chosen for a second term even after the ty job he was doing and the only thing people could do was to post a selfie apologizing to the world. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump runs the country for 8 years. |
|
|
| Lira |
| quote: | Originally posted by sensorium
|
Hey, how are things in Mexico? I read the peso plummeted to a 21 year low or something (which is great if you're an exporter, but horrible for everybody else). |
|
|
| soulstar606 |
  |
|
|
| sensorium |
| quote: | Originally posted by Lira
Hey, how are things in Mexico? I read the peso plummeted to a 21 year low or something (which is great if you're an exporter, but horrible for everybody else). |
It depends on who you ask. Some would say things aren't that bad while others will say it's worse by the second.
I was there during the summer. It was a bit discouraging to see how things are. The poor are becoming poorer and bigger in number and of course that means the rich are getting richer and smaller in number. The essentials for living are getting more expensive. Cartels are expanding and fighting for more territories. When you're young and have no job or reasonable path to study, joining a cartel seems like the only option.
The peso slowly dying is just a small sign of things to come. The president has had a term full of let downs. Corruption under his presidency is at an all time high. Who lets 43 student teachers go missing and not have someone accountable for it? That's never going to be solved.
I'd say Mexico is okay. It has had corruption, old pesos plummeting and multiple other setbacks in the past. It's a good country with great people. But it's a young Colombia in some aspects.
The peso being at that low is great for someone like me who sends money every now and then but I heard Trump is going to start taxing that to pay for the wall. We'll see. :p |
|
|
| DJ RANN |
| quote: | Originally posted by sensorium
Four interesting years ahead of us. Like it or not, the country is divided; half the country voting for him. Protesting against Donald doesn't do much when you have another half who won and expects the president-elect to act on those promises made from the beginning.
The Republican party built this perfect model of someone suitable to oppose everything Obama was doing. Trump came in and quickly embodied that model, even against the will of the Republican party. What do you have now? You have a president with no prior experience and the whole Republican party in power as soon as they have the majority in the supreme court.
Even if the first two years go ridiculously bat- crazy, I doubt the Democrats will get any seats back to make a meaningful defense.
In any case, Trump is ed. He must act on the promises people elected him for. If he begins to show a soft side, people are going to start turning on him, and that could be even more dangerous.
I still remember how George W. Bush was chosen for a second term even after the ty job he was doing and the only thing people could do was to post a selfie apologizing to the world. I wouldn't be surprised if Trump runs the country for 8 years. |
The thing is, Trump's going to have the shortest honeymoon period in history; He talked a BIG game and now he has to deliver and given his already "fluid" stance on Obamacare, and now parts of the "wall" become a fence, and the fact much of what he promised is financially and logistically impossible, he's going to have a major problem delivering to an angry base that want's hard line action asap.
I'm not sure it's accurate yo give the GOP credit for creating the perfect model - Trump rose through the GOP in spite of their efforts to stop him, but if you mean it more esoterically in terms of setting a stage of division and ideological polar opposition , then yes, they fueled that for years.
But the most shrewd thing they did was the re-districting and gerrymandering which allowed senator and reps to win in some places that they probably would have lost. It's been a long and careful process and they succeeded in making sure their desired areas counted.
I'm also not so sure that the GOP will hold their majority in the mid terms unless somehow Trump truly makes america great in two short years. The dems actually made gains in the senate so unless things change in the country's and thus GOP's favor, they may well lose support.
I think that soft side you reference is already well in full effect; he's backed down on sending hilary to jail, vene calling the the clinton's "good people" in the 60 minutes interview and saying that a special prosecutor is not a priority.
Even though there's very few presidents that only last one term, If things don't go trump's way, he make add to the list. Bush only narrowly got re-elected due to weak opposition and that given the terrorism/war positions, was able to convince enough people to stay the course (remember: "you don't change horses mid-apocalypse"?). But then given that everything is unpredictable this time around anything could happen. |
|
|
|
|
